The Iran Nuclear Crisis

1
The Iran Nuclear Crisis

• Herzliya Conference
• Scott D. Sagan
• February 4, 2009

2
Proliferation Fatalism The belief that coercive
diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear
weapons.
Deterrence Optimism The belief that a nuclear
Iran can be easily deterred through threats of
nuclear retaliation.
3
(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE

• Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003
• Irans weapons program was a violation of its NPT
  obligations
• Covert enrichment program exists outside of
  Natanz

4
Dangers of a Nuclear Iran

• Cold War analogy flawed
• Pakistan analogy better
• Shield for aggressive action
• Ambiguous control
• Dangerous custodians
• Anonymous attack
• Further proliferation

5
Moving Forward?

• Stronger Carrots
• Regime Coexistence
• LWR Assistance
• Grand Bargain
• Stronger Sticks
• Sanctions on Refined Petroleum
• Financial Sanctions
• Military Options