Our Delphi Process Rounds 35

1
Our Delphi ProcessRounds 3-5

• Helen Ivy Rowe

2
Definition

• A method for the systematic solicitation and
  collation of informed judgments on a particular
  topic.
• Turoff, Murray. The Design of a Policy Delphi
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2
  (1970), 149-171.

3
Procedure

• A set of carefully designed sequential
  questionnaires interspersed with summarized
  information and opinions feedback derived from
  earlier responses.

4
Possible Objectives

• To determine or develop a range of possible
  alternatives.
• To explore or expose underlying assumptions or
  information leading to differing judgments.
• To seek out information which may generate a
  consensus of judgment on the part of the
  respondent group.

5
Possible Objectives

• To correlate informed judgments on a topic
  spanning a wide range of disciplines.
• To educate the respondent group as to the diverse
  and interrelated aspects of the topic.

6
Our Objectives

• Delphi 3 and 5
• Establish the range of differing positions
• More clearly define areas of agreement and
  conflicting opinion
• Delphi 4
• Solicit informed review of a document from a
  participant group spanning a wide range of
  disciplines.
• Give participants a chance to think about issues
  on their own
• Synthesize ideas to work with at this meeting

7
Round 3

• Goal Find closure on vision statement and agree
  on a definition for rangelands
• Rate the level of acceptability for Rangelands
  definition
• Rate the level of acceptability for Rangelands
  vision statement and SRR vision statement
• State preference for vision statement

8
Round 3 Results

• Preference for the SRM definition of rangelands
  (28/32)
• Broad acceptance to adopt Rangelands vision
  statement (29/33)
• Split over whether to adopt the SRR vision
  statement (88?) along with Rangelands vision
  statement (17)
• Respondents offered alternative text.

9
Round 5 Goals

• Finalize definition of rangelands
• Finalize a vision/mission package
• Allow participants to rate acceptance and give
  preference over alternative selections of vision
  and mission statements

10
Package 1

• Accepted SRR mission statement The Roundtable
  will identify indicators of sustainability based
  on social, economic, and ecological factors, to
  provide a framework for national assessments of
  rangelands and rangeland use.

• Vision 1 We envision a future in which
  rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of
  economic, ecological and social benefits to
  current and future generations.

11
Package 2

• Accepted SRR mission statement The Roundtable
  will identify indicators of sustainability based
  on social, economic, and ecological factors, to
  provide a framework for national assessments of
  rangelands and rangeland use.

• Vision 1 (vision for rangelands) We envision a
  future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a
  desired mix of economic, ecological and social
  benefits to current and future generations.
• Vision statement 2 (vision for the SRR process)
  We envision a future where we have widely
  accepted criteria and indicators for monitoring
  and assessing the economic, social, and
  ecological sustainability of rangelands.

12
Package 3

• Accepted SRR mission statement The Roundtable
  will identify indicators of sustainability based
  on social, economic, and ecological factors, to
  provide a framework for national assessments of
  rangelands and rangeland use.

• Vision 1 (vision for rangelands) We envision a
  future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a
  desired mix of economic, ecological and social
  benefits to current and future generations.
• Vision statement 2 (vision for the SRR process)
  We envision a future where we have the
  capability to monitor and assess the economic,
  social, and ecological sustainability of
  rangelands.

13
Package 4

• Accepted SRR mission statement The Roundtable
  will identify indicators of sustainability based
  on social, economic, and ecological factors, to
  provide a framework for national assessments of
  rangelands and rangeland use.

• Vision 1 with suggested addendum We envision a
  future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a
  desired mix of economic, ecological and social
  benefits to current and future generations. We
  strive to develop widely accepted criteria and
  indicators for monitoring and assessing the
  economic, social, and ecological sustainability
  of rangelands.

14
Package 5

• Accepted SRR mission statement The Roundtable
  will identify indicators of sustainability based
  on social, economic, and ecological factors, to
  provide a framework for national assessments of
  rangelands and rangeland use.

• Vision 1 with addendum We envision a future in
  which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired
  mix of economic, ecological and social benefits
  to current and future generations. In order to
  achieve that future, criteria and indicators for
  monitoring and assessing the economic, social,
  and ecological sustainability of rangelands must
  be designed, implemented, widely accepted, and
  continued over time.

15
Round 5 Results

• SRM definition of rangelands acceptable by all 26
  respondents.
• Land on which the indigenous vegetation (climax
  or natural potential) is predominantly grasses,
  grass-like plants, forbs, or shrubs and is
  managed as a natural ecosystem. If plants are
  introduced, they are managed similarly.
  Rangelands include natural grasslands, savannas,
  shrublands, many deserts, tundras, alpine
  communities, marshes and meadows.

16
Future consideration for rangelands definition

• Comment in Round 5 I would like to see
  reference to the 10 canopy cover used in the
  forested definition. Would be nice if we could
  keep the two definitions (range/forest) so that
  they dont overlap.

17
Round 5 Results

• Vision/mission packages group split

18
Package 2

• Accepted SRR mission statement The Roundtable
  will identify indicators of sustainability based
  on social, economic, and ecological factors, to
  provide a framework for national assessments of
  rangelands and rangeland use.

• Vision 1 (vision for rangelands) We envision a
  future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a
  desired mix of economic, ecological and social
  benefits to current and future generations.
• Vision statement 2 (vision for the SRR process)
  We envision a future where we have widely
  accepted criteria and indicators for monitoring
  and assessing the economic, social, and
  ecological sustainability of rangelands.

19
Round 4

• Goal Identify gaps in important issues developed
  at Salt Lake City meeting.

20
Round 4 Results

• Change in Vegetation Patterns
• Monitoring change
• Conservation of biological diversity, plants,
  animals
• Disturbance Regimes
• Water Resources
• Riparian areas

21
Round 4 Results

• Economic evaluation of economic and biological
  costs
• Legal, economic, and institutional framework
• Social/political Uses
• Toxics
• Carbon Budgets
• Climatic Change
• Other comments

22
Delphi 4 Homework Assignment

• Please study these before the meeting and come
  prepared with your own comments.

23
Delphi 3-5 Overall Results

• Accepted SRM definition of rangelands
• Tentatively accepted compromise vision/mission
  package 2
• Made great progress in identifying important
  issues
• Produced a document to use at this meeting

24
Next Steps

• At this meeting, we have allotted time to add
  important issues to issue areas and/or to
  reorganize the small groups to include important
  issues identified in Delphi 4.
• We plan to do three more rounds between this and
  the next meeting in San Antonio.