The Collaborative Delphi

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The Collaborative Delphi

• Helen Ivy Rowe

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Purpose

1. Briefly define Collaborative Delphi.
2. Describe its use by the SRR.
3. Provide update on issues covered by Delphi.

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Delphi Defined

• The Delphi is a research technique used for
  gathering and developing expert opinion through
  iterative surveys.

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Collaborative Delphi

• Choose issues from meetings.
• Send questionnaires.
• Summarize responses.
• Send responses with further questions.
• Individuals given the opportunity to revise their
  original answers in response to group feedback.
• Use Delphi results to continue debate in meeting
  or in another round of Delphi.

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Delphi benefits

• Anonymity removes fear of embarrassment for
• Presenting views in public.
• Contradicting superiors.
• Fresh input untainted by the opinions of
  others.
• Process cannot be domineered by the few.
• Opportunity to freely change an opinion in
  response to group feedback.

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Baseline Issue

• Issue From what point should SRR recommend that
  data be collected for each indicator?
• Delphi 8 and 9 results Split between choosing
  present/current status and using the earliest
  possible data for each indicator as a starting
  point.

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Baseline Issues

• Present/current status (start with now)
• No bias.
• End user can compare with historical data
• Is historical data useful?
• Difficulty in past data sets using same protocol.
• Earliest possible data
• Each baseline should be chosen based on the
  indicator.
• Should objectively report as much information as
  possible. (Why limit the information reported?)
• Starting with current status will limit
  interpretability of data.
• In either case, some baselines may start in the
  future.

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Reporting Methods

• Issue SRR must decide how data for each
  indicator is reported.
• Delphi 9 Given 7 methods to spatially
  categorize data, indicate level of acceptability
  and preference, give comments.
• Results 1. An array of comments indicated that
  more than one method should be employed by SRR.
  2. Ecological Climate Zones rated most
  acceptable and most preferred option.

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Reporting Methods

• Delphi 10 Should we limit the number of spatial
  methods we use in reporting data? If so to what
  number?
• Options
• 1 Limit to two methods political and 1
  ecological (result 2 methods)
• 2 Do not limit approaches each indicator
  should be reported according to the most
  appropriate methods. (result 7 methods)
• 3 Each criterion group will chose one methods
  to report all of its indicators (result 4
  methods)

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Reporting Methods

• Results mixed, Option 1 slightly preferred
• 1 Limit to two methods political and 1
  ecological (result 2 methods)
• Simplifies the output for clearer reporting
  overall.
• Some responses here argued for using geo
  referencing political data and thereby using only
  one reporting method.
• All social and economic indicators might not fit
  with political boundaries (zip code and census
  tract data).

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Reporting Methods

• 3 Each criterion group will chose one method to
  report all of its indicators (result 4 methods)
• Standardize reporting methods within the
  Criterion Group, fewer methods overall than 2.
• Difficult to interpret data for policy makers and
  scientists.
• Not possible to form indicators into an
  integrated index.
• Would have to read each indicator separately.
• Only one method for each Criterion Group is too
  narrow.

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Reporting Methods

• 2 Do not limit approaches each indicator
  should be reported according to the most
  appropriate method. (result 7 methods)
• No one good method for displaying everything.
• Best reflects diversity of data.
• Allows for the most appropriate method to be
  chosen for each indicator. Increases complexity
  permitted in reporting.
• Difficult to interpret data for policy makers and
  scientists.
• Not possible to form indicators into an
  integrated index.
• Would have to read each indicator separately.
• Need continuity within the overall report.

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Next Steps

• Baseline Issues and reporting methods will be
  discussed at the next meeting.
• This meeting Criterion groups may offer
  suggestions for next Delphi topics.

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• Any feedback or questions?
• How well is Delphi serving our process?
• Thank you for your participation.