Future Prediction Methodologies using expert groups

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Future Prediction Methodologies using expert
groups

• The Delphi Method and The Nominal Group
  Technique

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The Delphi Method

• The Delphi Method is a group decision process
  about the likelihood that certain events will
  occur.
• Today it is also used for environmental,
  marketing and sales forecasting.
• The Delphi Method uses a panel of experts.
• Expert responses to a series of questionnaires
  are anonymous.
• Each round of questionnaires results in a median
  answer.
• The process guides the group towards a consensus.

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Delphi in Context

• The Delphi technique was invented by Olaf Helmer
  and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation in 1953
  for the purpose of addressing a specific military
  problem.
• The object of the Delphi method is to obtain a
  reliable response to a problem from a group of
  experts.
• In a Delphi study, the participants do not
  interact with one another,
• Delphi technique is used today in business,
  education, and the social sciences

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DELPHI METHOD DETAIL

• The Delphi method is an exercise in group
  communication among a panel of geographically
  dispersed experts (Adler and Ziglio, 1996).
• It allows experts to deal systematically with a
  complex problem or task.
• A series of questionnaires are sent either by
  mail or email to a pre-selected group of experts.
  
• According to Fowles (1978) anonymity, controlled
  feedback, and statistical response characterize
  Delphi.
• Interaction in Delphi is anonymous, comments,
  forecasts, etc are presented to the group in such
  a way as to suppress any identification.

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DELPHI METHOD PROCESS

• Fowles (1978) describes ten steps for the Delphi
  method
• 1.Formation of a Delphi team to undertake a
  Delphi on a subject.
• 2.Selection of expert panel(s).
• 3.Development of the first round questionnaire
• 4.Testing the questionnaire for proper wording.
• 5.Transmission to the panelists.
• 6. Analysis of 1st responses
• 7. Preparation of 2nd round.
• 8. Transmission of 2nd round questionnaires to
  the panelists
• 9.Analysis of the 2nd round responses (7 to 9 may
  be repeated to get consensus)
• 10. Preparation and presentation of report

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Modified Delphi- The Nominal Group Technique

• The Nominal Group Technique is a face to face
  Delphi based method, allowing group discussion.
• It adds a personal dimension to the methodology.
• The use of consensus is common to both techniques

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Nominal Group Procedure

• Groups of 5 or 6 experts, are seated around a
  table.
• They are given an open ended question.
• Several minutes of silence enable individuals to
  reflect on the question and make notes
• Ideas are shared (one response per person each
  time), while all are recorded, on a flipchart. No
  criticism is allowed, but clarification in
  response to questions is encouraged.
• Each person evaluates the ideas and individually
  and anonymously votes for the best ones
• Votes are shared and tabulated within the group.
  A group report is prepared, showing the ideas
  receiving the most points.
• The group is briefed on their responses and
  proposals.

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How to use Delphi / NGT in your Country Study.

• Identify your problem area (eg Gender ,
  Education, Family etc)
• Describe the problem in detail
• Assume you are the expert group facilitator
  explain what experts you would choose for your
  group and why.
• Describe how your experts would deal with the
  task in hand
• Predict possible solutions

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Sources and Links

• http//www.iit.edu/it/delphi.html
• http//www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/2005/R
  M5888.pdf
• http//www.rand.org/about/history/
• http//www.cia.gov/csi/kent_csi/docs/v20i2a03p_000
  4.htm
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method
• http//people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch4en/meth4
  en/ch4m3en.html
• http//www.winona.edu/advising/LCChapter3.htm
• http//www.joe.org/joe/1984march/iw2.html
• http//www.ag.ohio-state.edu/bdg/pdf_docs/d/F06.p
  df

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