WATER ENERGY TRADEOFFS

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WATER ENERGY TRADE-OFFS
Scenario Based Planning

Kathleen ONeil, P.G. and David Yates, Ph.D.
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Dynamic Conditions Uncertainty
Time ?

• WATER -ENERGY Traditional sources of supply are
  shifting, regulatory requirements for target
  percentages of renewable energy sources and
  renewable energy credits (RECs) have emerged, and
  population trends and revenue projections have
  shifted.
• At a time of uncertainty in future trends
• Revenues decreasing Reserves shrinking
• Climate change and GHG regulation
• Carbon Credits and Tax Incentivites

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Dynamic Simulation and Decision Support

• ENERGY The reliability of water sources is an
  important risk factor for energy utilities.
• WATER Conversely, energy costs and emissions
  are important to water planning.
• COMPLEXITY UNCERTAINTY -- changes in hydrology,
  demographics, climate, and economics.
• New tools are needed that allows the projection
  of multiple sets of future conditions.

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New Tools Needed for Big Picture Strategy
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The Water/Energy Nexus

• Water Treatment Costs RO, Desal High Energy,
  High GHG
• Water Quality and Reliability for Cooling Tower
  Needs
• Energy Cost in Water Pumping and Distribution
• Risks in Future Flows for Reservoir Storage
• Biofuel Water Demands Growth and Production
• Carbon Capture Sequestration in Wastewater
  Injection
• Climate, GHG, and Sea Level Vulnerability

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Integrate Two Existing Tools

• WATER - WEAP

• ENERGY - LEAP

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Linking Models to Decision Making

• Doesnt replace other tools many complex models
  fill a need for detailed analysis but there is an
  absence of integrated executive level models.
• Supports quantitative and whole-system analysis
  of energy and water management alternatives and
  capital investment projects.

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WATER Alternatives Analysis
Dynamic Scenario Testing Future
Uncertainty Decision Analysis

• Dynamic, Scalable Water Budget Analysis
• Build in Natural System
• Drag and Drop Human Infrastructure Reservoirs,
  Pipeline, Treatment Systems.
• (SEI-US) Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)
  Tool
• Built-in models for Rainfall runoff and
  infiltration,ET, crop requirements and yields,
  surface water/groundwater interaction, and
  instream water quality
• Dynamic links to spreadsheets and other models
• Embedded linear program solves allocation
  equations

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Results Displayed on the Map
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Long-range Energy Alternative Decision Analysis

• A software tool for energy planning and climate
  mitigation scenario analysis.
• Emphasizes ease-of-use, and intuitive and
  transparent modeling and data management
  techniques.
• Many hundreds of users in over 150 countries.
• Widely applied by government energy and
  environmental agencies, in research institutions
  and energy utilities.
• Recently chosen for use by 85 developing
  countries for use in their national climate
  mitigation studies.

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ENERGY ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS
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Selected LEAP Studies

• APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (2006)
• Chinas Sustainable Energy Future (2003)
• Americas Energy Choices (1991)
• Toward a Fossil Free Energy Future The Next
  Energy Transition (1992)
• Prospectiva Energetica de America Latina y el
  Caribe (2005)
• Implementing Renewable Energy Options in South
  Africa (2007)

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Integrated Energy-Water-GHG Planning and
Portfolio Analysis

• Long-Term Site Plans, Capital Improvement Plans
  (CIP), and Integrated Resource Plans (IRP)
• Drag and Drop placement of supply and demand
  variables, infrastructure, and proposed projects.
  Integrated hydrology, climate, and energy
  dynamics in a platform that allows simulated
  what-if analysis

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Visual, Interactive Tool Energy-Water Trade-Offs

• Demand Management Cumulative impact of Demand
  Management strategies.
• Trade-Offs in Renewable Portfolio Percentages -
  Understanding the trade-offs and benefits of
  various Renewable Energy percentages and timing
  of capital investment projects.
• REC and Other Trading Credit Tracking
  Evaluation - Dynamic analysis and tracking of GHG
  emissions, Renewable Energy Credits (RECs),
  Carbon Credits, and other measurements of the
  marginal benefit of different energy strategies.
• Quantitative Visual Understanding of Long-Term
  Cost Price Implications - Defensible platform
  for clearly demonstrating the long-term cost
  implications and for evaluating the need for cap
  or price increases.

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Test Alternatives Scenario Testing
What-If Dashboard
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MCDA
Stakeholder Weights Assigned to Each Criteria
Each Criteria is Evaluated for Each Alternative
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Complex Systems Uncertainty
Dynamic Scenario Testing Future
Uncertainty Decision Analysis

• With
• Climate Change Projections,
• Tool for Adaptive Management (Existing Data ID
  Gaps)
• Triple Bottom Line Accounting Criteria,
• Research in Conservation Pricing, Decision
  Modeling Stakeholder Scenario Analysis

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Thank You

• Nothing in the world Is as soft and yielding as
  water.Yet for dissolving the hard and
  inflexibleNothing can surpass it.The soft
  overcomes the hardThe gentle overcomes the
  rigid.Everyone knows this is true,But few can
  put it into practice
• (Lao Tzu, 560 BC)