Amory Lovins: Hard path or soft path?

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Amory Lovins Hard path or soft path?

• The Hard Path
• Maximization of energy use
• Primary reliance on hard sources such as
  petrochemicals
• Promotion of continued economic growth and
  rising material standards
• Emphasis on developing technologies
• Highly centralized production dominated by huge
  corporations

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The Soft Path

• Reduction in total energy consumption.
• Development of intermediate and appropriate
  technologies.
• Creation of a permanently sustainable economy.
• Development of alternatives solar, wind,
  geothermal, hydrogen.

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Mining efficiency

• It is cheaper to save energy than to buy
  itAmory Lovins
• Adoption of new household appliance efficiency
  standards would eliminate the need for new power
  plants
• More stringent residential and commercial air
  conditioner efficiency standards approved by the
  Clinton Administration do away with the need for
  another 93 power plants

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Mining efficiency

• Improving energy efficiency of new and existing
  buildings (more efficient lighting) would save
  380 power plants
• Compact fluorescent bulbs use ¼ electricity of
  regular bulbs and last 13 times as long.
• CF 3-year cost 19.06
• Regular bulb 39.54
• Greater Fuel efficiency

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Seeking Alternative Sources

• There are many advantages to fossil fuels due to
  large investment in the production we currently
  have. (75 of energy is oil, gas, coal)
• Little is currently invested in alternative
  energy.

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Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Resources

• 84 of all commercial energy in US is wasted (2nd
  Law of Thermodynamics)
• Hydrogen power
• Hydroelectric power
• Solar Energy
• Wind energy

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The Hydrogen Revolution

• Water electrolysis splitting H2O molecules. NOT
  an energy source, more of a fuel.
• Clean-burning fuel water vapor (locally)
• But it takes a lot of energy to produce hydrogen
  (costly), but where does the energy come from?
• On the other hand, costs are coming down. Fuel
  cell cars on market (2003). However, there is
  little infrastructure.

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Hydropower

• Prior to the widespread availability of
• commercial electric power, hydropower was
• used for irrigation, and operation of various
• machines, such as watermills, textile
• machines, and sawmills.
• Hydropower is non-polluting It is renewable -
  water flows are replenished by the hydrologic
  cycle, which is powered by the sun.
• Hydroelectric power now supplies about 19 of
  world electricity (16 in 2003). Large dams are
  still being designed. Apart from a few countries
  with an abundance of it, hydro power is normally
  applied to peak load demand because it is readily
  stopped and started.
• Most of the Pacific West in the U.S. is powered
  by hydroelectric power.

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Some issues

• Hydroelectric power is probably not a major
  option for future energy production, most major
  sites are either already being exploited or are
  unavailable for other reasons, such as
  environmental considerations.
• Building dams can involve diverting rivers,
  flooding farmland and countryside and displacing
  local people (i.e.., China)
• Wildlife habitats are disrupted and the natural
  flow of water is altered. Forests are often cut
  down to build the accompanying infrastructure.
• Dams can trap silt which would otherwise enrich
  soils downstream, creating sediment and pollution
  problem up and down stream.

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Wind Energy

• Wind energy is
• abundant
• renewable
• widely distributed
• clean
• Mitigates the greenhouse effect if it is used to
  replace fossil-fuel-derived electricity.
• Unlike fossil fuel or nuclear power stations,
  which circulate or evaporate large amounts of
  water for cooling, wind turbines do not need
  water to generate electricity.

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Wind Energy

• 2000-2006 world wind energy generating capacity
  more than quadruples.
• accounts for 23 of electricity use in Denmark
• 4.3 in Germany
• around 8 in Spain.
• Only 1 globally.
• Less than 1 in US

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• World Wind Energy Generating Capacity, 19802002
• Thousand Megawatts

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Wind Energy

• Denmark manufactured 60 of all turbines
  installed in 2000
• Cost has dropped from 38/kwh cents in 1980 to 4
  cents in 2001
• US Great Plains have enough wind to meet all
  national electricity needs Saudia Arabia of
  wind
• One large wind turbine on ¼ acre can yield a
  farmer or rancher 2,000/year in royalties while
  generating 100,000/year in electricity.

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Long Term Potential of Wind Energy?

• Wind's long-term theoretical potential is much
  greater than current world energy consumption.
• The most comprehensive study to date found the
  potential of wind power on land and near-shore to
  be five times the world's current energy use and
  40 times the current electricity use.

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Any Tradeoffs? Downsides

• Aesthetics. Some people think they are ugly.
  Fight over offshore windmills near Marthas
  Vineyard.
• Studies show number of birds killed by wind
  turbines is negligible compared to the amount
  that die as a result of other human activities
  such as traffic, hunting, power lines, and high
  rise buildings, but especially the environmental
  impacts of using fossil fuels.
• Noise
• Transferability of wind generated power

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From Petroleum to Solar

• When BP merged with Amoco, it also acquired
  Solarex, the solar cell arm of Amoco, making BP
  the worlds third ranking manufacturer of solar
  cells, after Sharp and Kyocera of Japan.
  Siemens/Shell in fourth place (No US firms in top
  4).

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Solar Energy

• Sunlight strikes silicon-based material?
  electricity-photovoltaic cells
• Growth of sales of photovoltaic cells 20 a
  year in 1999-2000, jumping to 43 in 2000
• Cost of solar cells fallen from 70/watt of
  production capacity to 3.50/watt since 1970s

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Your House as an Energy Source

• Development of photovoltaic cells that are also
  roof shingles. The roof of a building becomes
  the power plant.
• In Germany and Japan, solar-shingled houses have
  two-way meters-selling electricity to the local
  utility when the house has an excess-buying it
  when it doesnt have enough.

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Set-backs to Solar

• Local ordinances (e.i., Coral Gables)
• Cost remains high, and little subsidies are
  available
• Require large amount of space to harness energy
• Better for localized efforts

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Reducing Energy Use

• Voluntary Behavior
• Carpooling
• Bicycling
• Mass transit
• Encouragement of these activities in the U.S.
  has not succeeded enough to make big difference
• Economic incentives for energy conservation
• Tax relief for those who conserve
• Penalties for those who overuse
• Cost-Savings through more efficient use.

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How quickly will we make the transition?

• World energy consumption will continue to grow,
  projected 50 increase by 2020 under one
  scenario.
• massive drive to raise energy efficiency
  scenario.
• Even given clear and widespread public policy
  support, the new renewables...will take decades
  to develop and diffuse to the point where they
  significantly substitute fossil fuels.
• Shell Oil study group, on the other hand, says
  alternative sources competitive with fossil fuel
  by 2020with current trends.