Global Climate Change and Food Security: A Brief Review

1
Global Climate Change and Food Security A Brief
Review
Lewis H. Ziska, PhD, USDA-ARS, Crop Systems and
Global Change Laboratory
CABI Global Summit Food Security in a Climate of
Change, October 19-21, London, UK.
2
CO2 emissions exceed all IPCC scenarios
2007
2006
2005
Raupach et al., Canadell et al (2008)
3
Warming trends.
Anomaly is measured relative to the average in
this period (1951-1980), but also period of green
revolution.
Pinatubo Volcano
4
Climate Impacts on Food Security.

• Direct effects
• Water
• Temperature
• Energy
• Indirect
• Insects, weeds, diseases.
• Food quality.

5
Water, irrigation and food security
6
Global Rice and Water Use.
Water, irrigation and food security.
Rice production

• Today, approximately 230,000 people were added to
  the population. Rice supplies the bulk of
  calories for the worlds poor.
• 80 of freshwater is used in irrigation.
• No water, no rice.

Irrigated
Remainder
7
Temperature / Flowering and Food Security
From USDA SAP 4.3, 2008
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe
damages to U.S. crop yields under climate
change Wolfram Schlenkera, and Michael J.
Roberts PNAS, July 2009
8
Energy and Food Security
Nitrogen comes from (Haber process, N2?NH4NO3).
(1000 atmospheres, and 450-600oC)
Requires natural gas (as energy prices increase,
fertilizer price increases).
Russia 47,570 billion ft3 Iran 26,370 billion
ft3 U.S.A. 5,600
How will the U.S. achieve energy independence
again?
9
Kudzu, a vegetative form of cancer.
Agro-ecosystems and Food Security
Soybean
Kudzu
10
And? What do we do?

• Utilize genetic resources.
• Adapt Infrastructure / technology.
• Emphasize long-term sustainability, particularly
  poly-culture.
• Biofuels.
• INVEST in Research and Education.

11
Utilize genetic resources Old vs. New
Oat cultivars and release dates.
Cultivar Location Release Date Eclipse U.S.,
California 1919 Bates 89 U.S., California
1996 Clydesdale U.S., California
1920 Burton U.S., California
1996 Kherson U.S., Idaho
1920 Powell U.S., Idaho 1998 Storm
King United Kingdom 1920 Colt United
Kingdom 1997 Osmo Finland
1922 Katri Finland 1997 Hatvan Hungary
1925 Zalalovoi Hungary 1997 Shatilovskij
Russia 1927 Drug Russia 1992
Equality of variance
12
Utilize genetic resources Look to the weeds.
Are breeders and nature selecting for the same
characteristics? Can weedy, wild relatives of
crops be a unique source of germplasm to adapt
modern crop lines to an uncertain climate?
13
Infrastructure and Technology
Efficient water capture and delivery
Better timing of N applied
And CO2 delivered?
14
Sustainability and Polyculture.
Energy (Haber process)
Fertilizer
Corn
Energy (Transport)
CAFO
Fertilizer
Dead zones
Reduced productivity
15
Biofuels Best use.
Ethanol l ha-1
What else?
16
Research and Education.
Investment in Agricultural Research, United
States.
Highlights 1999, 10 scientists, own lab 2008,
National Program on climate change
eliminated. 2009, 3 scientists, no lab, no
national program. 52, 60, 61.
17
Food Security Time Remaining