Environmental Scan Brief

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Environmental Scan Brief

• Corporate Strategy Group
• NDIA Executive Forum
• 24 February 2009

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Im going out. Can I bring you back any
firsthand knowledge of the outside world?
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Taking A Strategic Pause

• Strategic Context
• Requirements Guidance
• Warfighter Relevance

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• And those of us who manage the publics dollars
  will be held to account to spend wisely, reform
  bad habits, and do our business in the light of
  day because only then can we restore the vital
  trust between a people and their government.
• President Barack Obama
• Inaugural Speech
• 20 January 2009

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Strategic Context
Alignment of DNI and DoD
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In reality . . . the categories of warfare are
blurring and no longer fit into neat, tidy boxes.
One can expect to see more tools and tactics of
destruction -- from the sophisticated to the
simple -- being employed simultaneously in hybrid
and more complex forms of warfare. The
Honorable Robert Gates Secretary of
Defense A Balanced Strategy Foreign
Affairs, Jan/Feb 2009
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Strategic Context

• Global Trends 2025 A World Transformed
• Overarching U.S. Strategic Direction from DoD

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Global Trends 2025A World Transformed
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Among the messages we hope to convey are If
you like where events seem to be headed, you may
want to take timely action to preserve their
positive trajectory. If you do not like where
they appear to be going, you will have to develop
and implement policies to change their
trajectory. . . . An even more important message
is that leadership matters, no trends are
immutable, and that timely and well-informed
intervention can decrease the likelihood and
severity of negative developments and increase
the likelihood of positive ones. C. Thomas
Fingar Chairman, National Intelligence
Council Global Trends 2025 A Transformed
World November 2008
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(No Transcript)
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Global 2025 Key Strategic Drivers

• Globalization
• Demography
• Rise of New Powers
• Climate Change
• Geopolitics of Energy
• Decay of International Institutions

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Overarching U.S. Strategic DirectionAccording
to DoD
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DoD Gold Standard Publications . . .

• National Defense Strategy (JUN 2008)
• Quadrennial Defense Review (FEB 2006)
• National Military Strategy (MAY 2004)
• Unified Command Plan (DEC 2008)
• Guidance for Employment of the Force (Classified)
• Guidance for Development of the Force (Classified)

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Gold Standard Pubs Key Strategic Drivers

• Globalization
• Population Resource Pressures
• Rise of Near-Peer competitor
• Effect of Climate Change
• Transnational Security Challenges
• Preventing Proliferation of WMD
• Retain Conventional Warfighting Capability,
  Invest in Unconventional Means

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Comparative Assessment

• Gold Standard Pubs
• Globalization
• Population Pressures
• Rise of Near-Peer competitor
• Effect of Climate Change
• Resource Pressures

• Global 2025
• Globalization
• Demography
• Rise of New Powers
• Climate Change
• Geopolitics of Energy
• Decay of International Institutions

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(No Transcript)
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Key Projections

• U.S. will remain most powerful country, albeit
  less dominant
• Global multipolar system emerging, with rise of
  China, India and others, as well as relative
  increase in power of non-state actors
• Economic growth and demographic trends will
  increase pressure on energy, food and water
  resources
• Appeal of terrorism could lessen, but diffusion
  of technologies could put dangerous capabilities
  within their reach.
• Potential for conflict will increase due to rapid
  changes in greater Middle East and spread of
  lethal capability

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Implications

• Demand for U.S. leadership likely to remain
  strong, but capacities will shrink
• Number of actors on the international stage,
  including non-state elements, will increase
• Decline of dollar from global reserve currency
  to first among equals may force difficult
  trade-offs between foreign policy goals and
  domestic costs
• More limited military superiority as potential
  adversaries try to level the playing field
• Ability to absorb shocks will remain better than
  most, but also depends on the strength and
  resilience of the international system

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Character of Conflict Circa 2025

• Increasing Importance of Information
• Rapid proliferation of long-range precision
  weapons
• Importance of IT as enabler will make information
  a primary target in future conflicts
• Evolution of Irregular Warfare Capabilities
• Adoption of IW tactics by state and non-state
  actors
• Modern communications technologies will enhance
  ability of IW forces to organize, coordinate and
  execute dispersed operations
• Prominence of Non-Military Aspects of Warfare
• Cyber, economic, resource, psychological, and
  information
• Media warfare to dominate 24/7 news cycle
• Expansion and Escalation of Conflicts Beyond the
  Traditional Battlefield
• Containing conflicts beyond traditional into
  cyber and space domains will be problematic

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Requirements Guidance
What is needed has never been clearer
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Requirements Guidance

• Guidance Alignment
• President-Elect Obama Foreign Affairs Article
• Secretary Gates Foreign Affairs Article
• CJCS Guidance 2008-2009
• CNO Guidance 2009
• NETWARCOM 2009 Commanders Guidance
• Institutional Reform and Governance
• Background
• Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)
• Guidance for Development of the Force (GDF)
• Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP)

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Guidance Alignment
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President-Elect Obama Foreign Affairs
ArticleRenewing American Leadership
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Twenty-first Century Threats

• Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Global Terrorism
• Rogue States Rising Powers
• Weak States
• Warming Planet
• New diseases
• More devastating natural disasters
• Catalyze deadly conflicts (e.g. over water)

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Broad Strokes of Renewal

• Moving Beyond Iraq
• Revitalizing the Military
• Halting the Spread of Nuclear Weapons/WMD
• Combating Global Terrorism
• Rebuilding our Partnerships
• Building Democratic Societies
• Restoring Americas Trust

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Secretary Gates Foreign Affairs ArticleA
Balanced Strategy
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Reprogramming the Pentagon Balance

• Prevail in current conflict
• Institutionalizing capabilities like
  counterinsurgency foreign military assistance
• Retaining cultural traits that have made U.S.
  forces successful

• Preparing for other contingencies
• Maintaining existing conventional and strategic
  technological edge
• Shedding those that hamper their ability to do
  what needs to be done

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Unconventional Thinking Required

• Failure in Iraq/Afghanistan not an option
• Fundamental Concern Deeply embedded support for
  conventional modernization programs, but there is
  no commensurate institutional supportfor the
  capabilities needed to win todays wars
• Military and civilian (e.g. State, USAID)
  elements of national security have grown
  increasingly out of balance
• NDS U.S. predominance in conventional warfare is
  sustainable for the medium term

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Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Guidance
for 2008-2009
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Three Priorities Strategic Objectives

• (1) Defend Our Vital National Interests in the
  Broader Middle East
• Combat operations remain the immediate priority
• Nexus of terrorism and WMD proliferation remain
  the greatest threat to the U.S.
• (2) Reset, Reconstitute, and Revitalize our
  Forces
• Current operations have prevented forces from
  training for the full-spectrum of operations
• Pace of operations continues to severely degraded
  warfighting systems, equipment, platforms, and
  people

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Three Priorities Strategic Objectives

• (3) Properly Balanced Global Strategic Risk
• Remains concerned (along with COCOMs) that we
  lack the resources to meet all of our needs
• Notes that we must maintain our strategic depth
  and sustain a high degree of readiness
  especially for the Navy and Air Force to
  deter/defeat all military threats
• Crucial that we be alert during the
  administration transition as the national command
  authority stands up
• Need to assess the militarys planning and
  ability to respond to issues like climate change,
  food, energy, water, and narcotics

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Chief of Naval OperationsGuidance for 2009
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Executing the Maritime Strategy

• Focus Areas (continued from 2007-2008)
• Build the Future Force
• Maintain Warfighting Readiness
• Develop Support our Sailors, Navy civilians and
  their families
• 2009 Guidance Refines CNOs 18 Intentions
• Each is restated and emphasizes how progress will
  be measured for each

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Selected CNO Intentions for 2009

• Build a Navy with appropriate force structure and
  strategic laydown necessary to implement the
  Maritime Strategy
• Internal and external stakeholder understanding
  of, and support for, Navy force structure
  requirements
• Leverage science and technology initiatives to
  ensure warfighting benefits accrue to future
  Sailors
• Warfighting value and relevance of ST
  investments
• Agility of ST transitions from development to
  acquisition to operation
• Align the requirements, resources, and
  acquisition processes to achieve accountability
  and deliver the right capability and capacity on
  time and at the optimum cost throughout the
  lifecycle
• Timely understanding of acquisition costs and
  risks

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NETWARCOM 2009 Commanders Guidance
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Focus Priorities

• Anticipates greater focus on Cyber nationally,
  within DoD and within Navy
• Priorities remain
• (1) Generate Readiness for the Fleet and Joint
  Warfighters
• (2) Direct/Execute Operations that Enable
  Decision Superiority
• (3) Develop the Workforce to Meet Current and
  Future Requirements
• (4) Deliver Capability at Best Mission Value
  Throughout the Enterprise

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Looking to 2009

• Start our year at a high state of network
  readiness
• A new administration assumes the reins it is
  unclear how this will impact strategic priorities
• The economy is in crisis, which may reduce the
  resources available to execute
• NNFE is still required to execute efficiently and
  effectively, regardless of the environment
• Mission remains, and is perhaps increasingly
  vital
• Providing the Cyber capabilities that make
  Command and Control possible, enabling Decision
  Superiority

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Warfighter Relevance
Not just another new buzzword
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2001 Security Environment
Shifting Our Weight
Continuing the reorientation of military
capabilities and implementing enterprise-wide
reforms to ensure structures and process support
the President and the warfighter
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2009 Hybrid Warfare Shift in Focus
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These clean distinctions between conventional
and irregular warfare will rarely exist in
reality however, as often in the past, future
conflicts will appear as hybrids comprising
diverse, dynamic, and simultaneous combinations
of organizations, technologies, and techniques
that defy categorization. Admiral Michael
Mullen Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff Chairmans Letter Capstone Concept for
Joint Operations January, 2009
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Reasons for Change

• Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
• Repeated calls for Hybrid Warfare
• Michèle Flournoy, nominee for USD Policy
• Defining feature of the future security
  environment
• Colonel Frank Hoffman, USMC (Ret.)
• Popularized the concept in Defense circles
• General Mattis, Commander, JFCOM
• Called for internal conference on Hybrid Warfare

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The choices we make will manifest themselves in
how we train, whom we promote, and, of course,
how we spend . . . we will not be able to do
everything, buy everything. And, while we have
all spoken at length about these issues, I
believe now is the time to take action. I promise
you that as long as I remain in this post I will
focus on creating a unified defense strategy that
determines our budget priorities. This is, after
all, about more than just dollars It goes to the
heart of our national security. Robert
Gates Secretary of Defense Testimony Before
the Senate Armed Services Committee 27
January 2009
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"How about we ditch intuition and try another
approach."
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Virtual Handouts

• Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed World
  http//www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
• National Defense Strategy http//www.defenselink.
  mil/news/200820national20defense20strategy.pdf
• Foreign Affairs A Balanced Strategy
  http//www.foreignaffairs.org/20090101faessay88103
  /robert-m-gates/how-to-reprogram-the-pentagon.html
  
• Washington Quarterly The Defense Inheritance
  Challenges and Choices for the Next Pentagon
  Team http//www.twq.com/08autumn/docs/08autumn_f
  lournoy.pdf
• Joint Forces Quarterly Hybrid Warfare and
  Challenges http//www.potomacinstitute.org/media
  /mediaclips/2009/Hoffman_JFQ_109.pdf

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Questions/Discussion