Windleistungsvorhersage

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Integrating Wind into Electricity Market in
Germany
Dr. Ulrich Focken European Wind Energy Conference
Milan,09. May 2007
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Overview

• Status Quo Renewable energy act
• Concept of renewable trading platform

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Status quo renewable energy act

• Fixed tarif 5 (1) Netzbetreiber sind
  verpflichtet, Strom, der in
  Anlagen gewonnen wird, die ausschließlich
  Erneuerbare Energien einsetzen nach 6
  bis 12 zu vergüten.
• Preference integration 4 (1) Netzbetreiber
  sind verpflichtet, Anlagen zur Erzeugung
  von Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien
  vorrangig an ihr Netz anzuschließen und den
  gesamten aus diesen Anlagen angebotenen Strom
  aus Erneuerbaren Energien vorrangig
  abzunehmen.
• realisation physical balancing by TSO

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Renewable energy act (EEG) - delivery of
renewable energy to customers
Distribution Network
EEG-energy is passed on from the producers to the
final customers. Payment (feed in tariffs) are
passed on as well.
EEG-Quota
Sales Company
EEG Plant (e.g. Wind Park)
Final Customer
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Installed wind power energy consumption

• TSO in the north with high wind energy penetration

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Installed wind power energy consumption

• TSO in the north with high wind energy penetration

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Physical distribition of wind power between TSOs

• Quarter-hourly exchange based on upscaled
  productions of representative wind-farms

• Energy is passed from E.on and Vattenfall grids
  towards EnBW and RWE-grids

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Physical distribition of wind power between TSOs

• Smoothing effect of wind power forecast error and
  load forecast error

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Future integration in the market has to be done

• Fixed tarif system is the best for the beginning
  of integraton of wind power, ...
• but with increasing share of wind power it has
  to be integrated in the power market.
• What has to be considered
• Political framework
• Development of methods and software for pratical
  realisation

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Political Framework Status Quo
Grid operator are obliged to take, but the wind
park owner is not obliged to give

• Fixed tarif 5 (1) Netzbetreiber sind
  verpflichtet, Strom, der in
  Anlagen gewonnen wird, die ausschließlich
  Erneuerbare Energien einsetzen nach 6
  bis 12 zu vergüten.
• Preference integration 4 (1) Netzbetreiber sind
  verpflichtet, Anlagen zur Erzeugung von
  Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien vorrangig
  an ihr Netz anzuschließen und den gesamten
  aus diesen Anlagen angebotenen Strom aus
  Erneuerbaren Energien vorrangig abzunehmen.

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Renewable energy act (EEG) - delivery of
renewable energy to customers
Distribution Network
EEG-Quota
Sales Company
EEG Plant (e.g. Wind Park)
Final Customer
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Market integration
Verteilnetz-betreiber
EEG-Quote
Sales Company
EEG Plant (e.g. Wind Park)
Final Customer
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What is special to trade wind power ?

• Power trading is for over 10 year daily business,
  but ...
• Convertional power plants The power plant is
  scheduled to sold energy.
• Renewables Trading the power which is predicted.

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Concept of renewable virtuel trading platform
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Wind Power Prediction - Previento
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Supply information

• Include availabity
• Pooling

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Price information

• Trading platforms
• Power exange
• (EEX)
• OTC
• Forecast of
• price

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Concept of renewable virtuel trading platform
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Risk assessment

• Price risk
• known problem in the energy market
• Volume risk
• deviation of schedule due to prediction error
• How to deal with forecast errors
• balancing power
• physical adjustment with conventional power
  plants
• demand site management

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Smoothing helps a lot

• Error decrease with increase of regionsize
• Regional smoothing depend only on regions size,
  not on number of sites
• Error is reduced in germany to 42 compared to
  single forecast

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Which hours are above a certain treshhold ?

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Cumulate frequency of trading duration
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Standard products for the energy market

• Generate products is a challange

Wind Power
Peak
Base
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Standard products for the energy market

• Consideration of all uncertainties

Combined Uncertainty
Wind Power Prediction
Contracts
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Which topics a trading tool should cover ?

• Easy to access via internet multiple user like
  trader, wind power maintenance, wind power
  operator
• User dependend settings
• All information together
• Historic data available

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Start trading in germany with WPD / EWE

• 1.6 GW inst. Capacity
• distributed over whole germany
• Predictions are available for each single wind
  farm
• A company to trade wind power will be estabished
  by EWE and WPD
• So - methods and software to trade wind energy
  are available !

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Thanks for your attention !
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KontaktDr. Ulrich Fockenenergy meteo systems
GmbHMarie-Curie Straße 126129
Oldenburgulrich.focken_at_energymeteo.dewww.energym
eteo.de