Sustainable, CO2-neutral Source of Energy

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Sustainable, CO2-neutral Source of Energy
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http//www.energycommission.org/
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In the last 100 years, the Earth warmed up by 1
C
100 years is nothing by geological time scales!
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Temperature over the last 420,000 years Source
Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
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Forget about Global warming!
Shouldnt we be worried about a new ice age?
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Previous ice ages are thought to be caused by
changes in the orbit and inclination of the Earth.
but there is something new happening!
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We continue to refine the predictions of Global
Warming
Predictions are hard to make, especially about
the future.
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Can we predict the past?
Climate change due to natural causes (solar
variations, volcanoes, etc.)
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CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea
Level Continue to Rise Long after Emissions are
Reduced
Sea-level rise due to ice melting several
millennia
Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion
centuries to millennia
CO2 emissions peak 0 to 100 years
Temperature stabilization a few centuries
CO2 stabilization 100 to 300 years
CO2 emissions
Today
1,000 years
100 years
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The possibility / likelihood of global warming is
disturbing
Chu
but there may be a bigger problem!
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Consumption of Energy Increased by 85 Between
1970 and 1999
Chu
By 2020, Consumption will Triple
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World Energy Consumption by Region 1970-2020
Chu
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Global Energy Consumption, 1998
How long will our fossil fuels last?
Total 12.8 TW U.S. 3.3 TW (99 Quads)
Courtesy Nate Lewis
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M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S.
Domestic Production would Peak in 1970.
Chu
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World production of oil and gas is predicted to
peak within 10 - 40 years
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Energy conservation and efficiency can buy
time(a factor of 2) but the fundamental
problem remains
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Today Production Cost of Electricity
(in the U.S. in 2002)
25-50
Cost, /kW-hr
6-7
5-7
6-8
2.3-5.0
1-4
Courtesy Nate Lewis
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Energy Costs
0.05/kW-hr
Europe
Brazil
www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea
Courtesy Nate Lewis
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Potential Sources of Energy when Fossil Fuels
Run Out
Magnetic Plasma Confinement, Inertial Fusion

• Nuclear Fusion

Waste Nuclear Proliferation
10 TW 10,000 new 1 GW reactors i.e., a new
reactor every other day for the next 50 years
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Solar Energy
We do not know how to store electrical energy on
a massive scale
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Wind Power Generation
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Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO2,
water and nutrients into chemical energy
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Solar to Chemical Energy
CO
H
O
2
2
2
e
e
Sugar
sc
M
sc
M
H O
2
H O
2
O
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Photovoltaic andelectricity to chemical
Semiconductor/liquid junctions
Photosynthesis
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Energy gained in corn ethanol production
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Total CO2 emissions
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From Summary of Renewable Fuel Options (NCEP)
Unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol has
potential to achieve near-zero net carbon
emissions. Cultivation of cellulosic feedstocks
requires very low energy inputs and, if
sustainably managed, the carbon released during
fuel combustion is reabsorbed by the growth of
new feedstocks.
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450 M acres of land under cultivation in the US
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Biomass resources estimate

• Land with Crop Production Potential, 1990
  2.45x1013 m2
• Cultivated Land, 1990 0.897 x1013 m2
• Additional Land needed to support 9 billion
  people 0.416x1013 m2
• Remaining land available for biomass energy
  1.28x1013 m2

Courtesy Nate Lewis
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Photosynthesisthe creation of chemical energy
from CO2, sunlight, water and nutrients
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Engineering microbes to produce drugs

• Malaria is caused by a single-cell protozoan
• Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito
• Destroys red blood cells
• 1.5-2.7 million people die of malaria every year
• 90 of the victims are children
• 40 of the worlds population is at risk

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Artemisinin-based drugs

• The current cost for an artemisinin-based drug is
  approximately 2.25.
• Artemisinin generally adds 1.00-1.50 to the cost
  for drugs
• Most developing countries spend less than
  4/person/year on health care
• As many as 10-12 treatments are needed for each
  person annually
• World Health Organization estimates that 700 tons
  will be needed annually

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Synthetic Biology Production of artemisinin in
bacteria Jay Keasling
Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce
methane from sunlight, CO2, water and sustainable
sources of nutrients?
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Integration of many disciplines will be needed
Computing Sciences
Physics,Chemistry
New ideas
Life Sciences
Materials Science
Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy
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A diversified portfolio of investments is needed
A solution may lie at the interface of biology
andthe physical sciences at the nano-scale
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National Concerns
which is intimately tied to
energy security
1) National security
2) Economic prosperity
3) The environment
Sustainable, CO2 neutral energy
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Science
Technology

• The pursuit of technological goals has led to
  some of the most innovative science.

• Science done with new technology has the best
  chance of discovery.

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Who will keep the lights on after we run out of
fossil fuel?