OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATED SC 203

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OUR ENERGY FUTURE UPDATEDSC 203

• January 16, 2008
• John Bush

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OUR ENERGY FUTURE A SLATE REPORT

• SC 210
• December 12, 2006
• The Slate Panel
• Carolyn Kimme Smith George Hume
• Dennis Silverman Max Lechtman
• Paul Engelder Vern Roohk
• Stephen Jeckovich Ron Williams
• Dorothea Blaine John Bush

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ENERGY SLATEA History

• Planned Spring 2005
• Initiated Fall 2005
• Global Warming --Peak Oil
• Energy Policy --Nuclear Energy
• Concluded Spring 2006
• Subsequent Events
• 78 per barrel oil/ 3.50 per gal gasoline
• Increasing evidence for Global Warming
• Intensifying Shiite/Sunni hostilities
• California policy on Global Warming
• Proposition 87

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FRAMING THE SLATE DISCUSSIONS

• Points of view
• 1) Residents of California
• 2) Citizens of the United States
• 3) Inhabitants of the Earth
• Time frames
• 2010
• 2015
• 2025
• Forever2050 and beyond

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SUMMARY OF ISSUES

• By using so much fossil fuel are we making the
  Earth an unfit place for life?
• Is the world running out of oil?
• Is our nation endangered by our dependence on
  imported oil?
• How will global demographic and economic trends
  affect our energy future?
• How will energy supply choices affect the
  availability of supplies of water and food?
• How might our American Lifestyle be affected?

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GLOBAL WARMING

• Yes, the use of fossil fuels is profoundly
  changing the temperature of our living spaces.
• What is likely to happen as a result?
• Some change now appears to be inevitable adjust
  lifestyle to accommodate to then
• Some change now appears to be preventable adjust
  lifestyle use more benign energy
  technologies---the sooner the better!

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GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS IN CALIFORNIA

• Summer temperatures rise by 4-8 F by 2100 for
  low emission scenario 8-15 F for higher
  emissions.
• Heat waves will be more common, more intense, and
  last longer.
• Spring snowpacks in the Sierra could decline by
  70-90, as winters will be warmer.
• Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could be
  affected by water shortages and higher
  temperatures.
• More forest fires.
• Tree rings show that in eras of global warming,
  megadroughts of decades hit the southwest US.

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GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE

• Is Global Warming (climate change) actually
  happening?---Yes
• Is it caused by increasing output from the
  sun?---No
• Is it caused by increased cosmic ray
  activity?Maybe a contributor
• Is it caused by increasing carbon dioxide
  concentration in the atmosphere?Yes, largely

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Science Jan 11, 2008
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GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE

• Is Global Warming (climate change) actually
  happening?---Yes
• Is it caused by increasing output from the
  sun?---No
• Is it caused by increased cosmic ray
  activity?Maybe a contributor
• Is it caused by increasing carbon dioxide
  concentration in the atmosphere?Yes, largely

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CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING

• Why is the carbon dioxide concentration
  increasing?
• Human activities-- Yes
• Volcanoes No
• Other natural sources Some
• Decreased capacity to absorb carbon dioxide---
  Yes
• Are there other gases contributing to
  warming?Yes
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
• Water vapor

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AMERICAN ATTITUDES TO GLOBAL WARMING

• Is Global Warming actually happening?--Yes
• 60 said take action very soon
• Many well publicized objectors to Global Warming
  hysteria
• Are Americans well informed?--Some
• An Inconvenient Truth
• Oil company funded campaigns
• White House-directed distortions
• Is there serious scientific dissent about the
  reality of Global Warming?--No

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CONTRARY VIEWS

• Global Warming isnt happening, cant be
  modified, or is hysterical hype
• Natural effects overwhelm the effects of human
  activity volcanoes, water vapor, cosmic rays,
  natural cyclic climate change
• The data base is questionable
• If not Global Cooling then why Global Warming?
• Scientists are hopelessly divided on reality and
  seriousness of Global Warming
• Scientific technological elites are creating
  hysteria so that their work will be fundeda
  conspiracy
• Global Warming consequences will be minimal or
  harmless
• Dust and aerosols will counter warming
• The effects are overstated because climate models
  are unreliablejunk science
• Better to invest to address other human concerns

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INFORMING THE PUBLIC?CLIMATE CATASTROPHEJames
Hansen NASA
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PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES FOR LIFE FORMS OF GLOBAL
WARMINGIPCC 2007
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AND THINGS GET WORSENATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
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GLOBAL WARMING

• Yes, the use of fossil fuels is profoundly
  changing the temperature of our living spaces.
• What is likely to happen as a result?
• Some change now appears to be inevitable adjust
  lifestyle to accommodate to then
• Some change now appears to be preventable adjust
  lifestyle use more benign energy
  technologies---the sooner the better!

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PEAK OIL

• Is the world running out of oil?-- Yes
• How near is the peak in global oil
  production?Controversial
• What happens after the peak?Without replacement
  technologies, society as we know it will
  collapse.
• What can we do to delay/avert social collapse?
• Alter lifestyles to conserve oil
• Develop replacement technologies
• Do we have enough time?Yes, probably

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DO WE HAVE TIME TO ACT?

• Oil production will peak between now and 2070
• From small scale demonstration to widespread
  commercialization of energy technologies may
  ordinarily take 20 to 50 years
• Fossil energy conversion facilities have an
  average productive life of about 30 years
• Conclude we will need to demonstrate the economic
  feasibility of technologies in the next 10 to 20
  years to have them widely available by the time
  oil production peaks

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PEAK OIL UPDATE

• Are we near the peak?Still controversial
• Can production meet potential demand?
• OECD/IEA December 2007 The worlds remaining
  oil resources are expected to be sufficient to
  meet rising demand over the next two-and-a-half
  decades.
• NPC US July 2007 Global production is unlikely
  to meet the projected 50-60 growth in demand
  over the next 25 years
• NPC The real issue is the rate of production not
  the magnitude of resources
• What happens if growth in the rate of production
  doesnt keep up with growth in demand??

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PRICE OF OIL

• Not necessarily correlated with the price of
  gasoline
• Historically, what should oil cost? 45-60 per
  bbl in current dollars
• Actually now is about 91 per bbl-- 40 per bbl
  Speculative premium due to a volatile, tight
  oil market
• Evidence that economic rationing is beginning to
  take effect

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AFTER THE PEAK

• Volatile marketspotential for economic
  depressions
• Escalating costs for everything reduced net
  incomes
• Economic rationingchange in lifestyles driven by
  economics
• Government actionsrationing, subsidies, wars

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HOW URGENT IS THIS?

• NPC consensus among supply forecasters The
  urgent need for global action was clearly the
  most strident issue raised.
• The post peak consequences will become critical
  within 20 years
• Do we have time to completely avert
  them?probably not
• Do we have time to cushion them?yes if we act
  urgently

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ALTERNATIVE VIEWPOINTS

• Reserve growth through technology and discovery
  will prolong the time available past 2030
• Resources, investments, facilities and
  production in the immediate future are sufficient
  to meet demand.

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UPDATE DO WE HAVE TIME TO ACT?

• Oil production will peak between now and 2070
• From small scale demonstration to widespread
  commercialization of energy technologies may
  ordinarily take 20 to 50 years
• Fossil energy conversion facilities have an
  average productive life of about 30 years
• Conclude we will need to demonstrate the economic
  feasibility of new technologies in the next 5 to
  10 years to have them sufficiently available by
  the time production rates fall short of demand
  growth

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THE LAST WORD

• The public, in general, is not very well
  educated on the issue of peak oil production and
  much less so with respect to its implications.
  The precise date of peak oil production is
  uncertain, but the implications of reaching peak
  production and the subsequent post-peak
  production decline are so important and the
  economic risks so great that they should be
  studied and addressed.
• National Petroleum Council Facing the Hard
  Truths About Energy Summary Discussions on Peak
  Oil
• July 2007

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NATIONAL SECURITY

• Is our military security endangered?No
• Is our economic security endangered?Yes
• Major increase in competition for energy
  resources
• Energy supplies sensitive to regional instability
• Are our foreign policy choices constrained?Yes
• Can we become independent of imports?
• Theoretically yes but at an unacceptable cost
• Practically not until we deploy economically
  acceptable alternatives to oil.
• Energy independence is a myth at least in the
  next 10 to 20 years.

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NATIONAL SECURITY UPDATE

• It only gets worse
• Economy See food, water and lifestyle below
• With oil and gas come political power
• We are more dependent on imported oil and gas
• Canada is our only reliable supplier
• Latin America Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador
• Middle East Saudi, Gulf States, Iran
• Eurasia Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
  Turkmenistan
• US has lost control of oil prices

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CONDITIONS FOR SURVIVING 100 BBL OIL

• Gradual price rise
• Moderate or low inflation
• Supplier nations investing in the US, EU, and
  Japan
• All must happen to avoid a major depression

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WAR GAME OIL SHOCKWAVENY TIMES NOV. 2, 2007

• 2009 starts with sudden increase to 150 bbl oil
• Severing of pipelines to Azerbaijan
• Military confrontation with Iranproduction cut
• Political confrontation with Venezuelaproduction
  cut
• Begin to release from Strategic Oil Reserve
• US Military deployed to Middle East
• Financial markets crash
• US Presidents options
• Reinstatement of draft
• Gasoline rationing
• Limit to Sunday driving
• Has few options that arent political suicide

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NATIONAL SECURITY

• Is our military security endangered?No
• Is our economic security endangered?Yes
• Major increase in competition for energy
  resources
• Energy supplies sensitive to regional instability
• Are our foreign policy choices constrained?Yes
• Can we become independent of imports?
• Theoretically yes but at an unacceptable cost
• Practically not until we deploy economically
  acceptable alternatives to oil.
• Energy independence is a myth at least in the
  next 10 to 20 years.

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GLOBAL POPULATION/ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Can an economic model based on US practice be
  applied globally?No
• Is the US model being adopted by relatively poor
  countries with large populations?--Yes
• How are the economic aspiration of three quarters
  of the worlds people going to be met?With only
  the technical alternatives now available they
  wont be.
• What if suitable alternatives are not deployed?-A
  grim future

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DEMOGRAPHIC UPDATE

• Increase in light duty vehicles 2005-2030
• China 22 million to gt200 million
• India 11 million to 115 million
• Population growth 2005-2025 Ten largest
• India 344 million
• China 130
• Pakistan 67
• Nigeria 79
• Bangladesh 64
• US 57
• Indonesia 49
• Ethiopia 48
• Brazil 42
• Philippines 32
• Population growth rate Liberia, Burundi,
  Afghanistan, Niger, Eritrea, Uganda,
  Congo-Kinshasa, West Bank Gaza, Jordan, Benin,
  Mali

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GLOBAL POPULATION/ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Can an economic model based on US practice be
  applied globally?No
• Is the US model being adopted by relatively poor
  countries with large populations?--Yes
• How are the economic aspiration of three quarters
  of the worlds people going to be met?With only
  the technical alternatives now available they
  wont be.
• What if suitable alternatives are not deployed?-A
  grim future

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WATER FOOD SCARCITY

• Can intensive agriculture as practiced in the US
  provide adequate food for the growing global
  population?Not without some new form of energy
  technology
• Can agriculture meet both the food and energy
  requirements of the growing world
  population?Probably not
• Will there be enough clean, fresh water for the
  growing world population?Not without some new
  form of energy technology

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WATER UPDATE

• Clean water for human consumption-where does the
  energy come from for clean-up?
• Filtration
• Desalination
• Distillation
• Water suitable for agriculture
• Competition between food crops and fuel crops
  will force decisions about who gets water and who
  doesnt
• Global Warming will redistribute rainfall,
  regionally affecting water availability

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FOOD

• World food prices are increasing
• Demand is increasing
• Changes in lifestyles
• Production of biofuels corn to ethanol palm oil
  to diesel
• Supply is decreasing
• Climate change is reducing cereal output
• Reserves have been declining
• Conflict with biofuels production
• Mexico price of tortilla staple doubled due to
  US ethanol production
• India will need 5 increase in agricultural
  water supply to meet 10 of transportation fuel
  demand by 2030
• California what crops will we not produce so as
  to produce biofuels?

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WATER FOOD SCARCITY

• Can intensive agriculture as practiced in the US
  provide adequate food for the growing global
  population?Not without some new form of energy
  technology
• Can agriculture meet both the food and energy
  requirements of the growing world
  population?Probably not
• Will there be enough clean, fresh water for the
  growing world population?Not without some new
  form of energy technology

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THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE

• Can a lifestyle based on intensive use of
  inexpensive fossil fuels be sustained?No
• What may have to change?
• Primacy of individual transport
• Dispersed housing, work, and services
• Low cost distribution of goods
• Adequate, reliable utilities
• Environmental qualities
• Energy usage habits

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STILL IN OUR COMFORT ZONE
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AMERICAN LIFESTYLE UPDATECOPING WITH CHANGE

• A majority in 2007 did not favor requiring
• High mileage cars
• Energy efficient appliances
• Energy efficient buildings
• Costs are enforcing change
• Gasoline commuting cost have more than doubled
  but gasoline consumption rose 1.5
• Oil heating costs have about doubled
• Electricity thus far moderate increases
• Anecdotal Examples
• Shift to smaller cars/hybrids
• Residential solar installations
• Decline in frequency of eating out
• Less disposable income

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PERSUADING CHANGE

• PETA Humane Society eat less meat!
• Sierra Clubdont castigate consumers persuade
  them
• Environmental Defense Fund get Congress to act

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A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?SHUNGNAK ALASKA

• Slow decline due to rising energy costs
• People moving away
• Old survival skills not revived
• Shift in diet away from meat and fish
• Wall Street Journal Jan 14, 2008

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CALIFORNIA DEVELOPMENT

• Global warming impact in environmental impact
  statements
• Home construction costs will steeply increase
• Some areas will be off limits due to fire danger
  or lack of water availability

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WHICH CABERNET TO DRINK?
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THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE

• Can a lifestyle based on intensive use of
  inexpensive fossil fuels be sustained?No
• What may have to change?
• Primacy of individual transport
• Dispersed housing, work, and services
• Low cost distribution of goods
• Adequate, reliable utilities
• Environmental qualities
• Energy usage habits

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TECHNOLOGIES

• Fossil Fuels.John Bush
• Biofuels..Max Lechtman/Vern Roohk
• Nuclear Fission/Fusion..........George Hume
• Solar Thermal/Photovoltaic.Dennis Silverman
• Hydroelectric/GeothermalJohn Bush
• Wind/Waves/Tides..George Hume
• Electric System..John Bush
• Hydrogen.Carolyn Kimme Smith
• Transportation..Stephen Jeckovich
• Conservation......Dennis Silverman

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ENERGY SOURCES

• Petroleum
• Natural gas
• Coal
• Nuclear
• Wind
• Solar
• Biofuels
• Other

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ENERGY/POWER TRANSMITTERS

• Pipelines
• Electricity Grid
• Hydrogen

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ENERGY USERS

• Conservation of current and application of new
  energy sources
• Transportation
• Industry/Commerce
• Home

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WHERE ARE THE BREAKTHROUGHS?

• Were still looking to the future
• Disappointing
• Batteries
• Ethanol
• Nuclear
• Promising
• Carbon Dioxide Sequestration
• Wind
• Solar
• Bio-recovery of trapped petroleum
• Jatropha

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HYDROGEN SAFETY

• Small leak more flammable than for gasoline, but
  more likely to disperse, so ignition less likely.
• Static spark can ignite, so ground the car during
  transfer.
• Detonation more likely than with gasoline because
  of wider flammable concentration and higher flame
  speed.
• Need high pressure to transfer efficiently 5-10k
  psi.
• Odorless, burns with a blue flame. Small molecule
  precludes adding scent molecule.

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HYDROGEN CAR PROBLEMS

• Cost high because of fuel cell costs. Fuel cell
  provides only 1 V36,000. Car 1 million?
• H under pressure of 5000 PSI. Heat generated
  during filling, so less H occupies more space.
• Takes 10 min to fill to 80,(100 miles)
• Deterioration of tanks, fittings, due to metal
  hydrides. Unknown MTBF (Mean time between
  failure)
• Unknown H distribution---twenty years away?

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SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF ELECTRICITY

• Electricity is an energy carrier (as is
  hydrogen)
• A good conductor is required for efficient
  transmissioncurrently copper or aluminum wires
• Conductors must be insulated for economy and
  safety
• Generation characteristics must be matched to
  transmisson and application characteristics
• Electricity cannot be stored in large
  quantities
• Demand and supply must be kept constantly matched
• Storage requires conversion to some other form of
  energy
• At point of use electricity is clean, convenient,
  and versatile since its characteristics can be
  tailored to the application on site