Geen diatitel

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Changing extremesin the climate of
EuropeAlbert.Klein.Tank _at_ KNMI.nl
SEAMOCS meeting, 17 February 2006
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Source CRU/MetOffice, 2004
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• Warming dominates in all seasons, except Autumn
  (bottom right)

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• European Climate Assessment project
• initiated by EUMETNET in 1998 coordinated by
  KNMI
• daily station series for T, R, P from gt 40
  countries
• papers, report and website ( http//eca.knmi.nl )

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4 statistical tests applied to each
series Standard Normal Homogeneity Test
(Alexandersson, 1986) Buishand Range test
(Buishand, 1982) Pettitt test (Pettitt, 1979) Von
Neumann Ratio test (Von Neumann, 1941)
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Example series for station with known relocation
and instrumental changes
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Wijngaard, Klein Tank and Können, Int. J. of
Climatol., 2003
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Source IPCC, TAR, Chapter 2, 2001
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990 the year 1996 lower
10-ptile 1961-1990
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990 the year 1996 lower
10-ptile 1961-1990
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990 the year 1996 lower
10-ptile 1961-1990
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Europe-average trends (days per decade) since
1976 for cold nights (TN10)and warm nights
(TN90) TN10 decrease 4.2 (0.2-8.2) TN90
increase 11.3 (6.6-16.1) expected 5.3
Klein Tank et al., J.Climate, 2003
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Observed trends (days per decade)for 1951 to 2003
Alexander et al., J.Geophys.Res., 2006
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Geostrophic winds blue circles are 95th
percentiles and red crosses 99th percentiles
(averaged over 10 sets of triangles of stations
and standardized)
Alexandersson et al., Climate Res., 2000
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Wind study the Netherlands 1962-2002
Smits, Klein Tank, Können, Int.J.Climatol., 2005
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Defining wind storm event in hourly series
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Trends in per decade for the Netherlands
htpp//eca.knmi.nl http//www.knmi.nl/samenw/hy
dra mailto Albert.Klein.Tank _at_ KNMI.nl
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Average wind speed in the Netherlands (average of
13 stations)
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Day-count indices of extremes
Relation between relative trend bq/X required for
80 detection probability (5 level) and series
length N for extreme events with average return
period Tret
Source Klein Tank and Können, J. Climate, 2003
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