Climate Change Impacts on Georgias Natural Resources

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Climate Change Impacts on Georgias Natural
Resources

• Steven McNulty, Ph.D.
• Research Ecologist
• USDA Forest Service
• Raleigh, NC

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Global change impacts range from the certain to
the unknown
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Certain change
Atmospheric CO2 is increasing and will continue
to increase for the foreseeable future due to
human emissions of fossil fuel and land clearing
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Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Very Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests
Increased Air Temperature
Increased Population
Increased Fire Fuel loads
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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..model estimates that take into account both
greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are
consistent with observations over this period
Stott et al, Science 2000
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Simulated Temperature over the US
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Total Population 1990 (NPA)
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Total Population 2045 (NPA)
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Increase () in Population from 1990 to 2045 (NPA)
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Total Down Woody Material (Mg/ha) for mixed
hardwood coniferous tree species based on
2001-2002 FIA P3 county data
Note two counties have no data available
(depicted in white)
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Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests (with and
without climate change)
Inter-annual precipitation variability
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Percent of the continental US with a much above
normal proportion of total annual precipitation
from 1-day extreme events more than 2 inches
Karl et al. 1996
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Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests (with and
without climate change)
Water supply Stress
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Water Demand (Use)
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Water Availability
Population
Land use change
Climate
Demand
Supply
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Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI)
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Change in Water Stress (WSSIR)

• to assess relative change in WSSI between the
  base year water stress (1990) and another year
  water stress

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Georgia Water Stress

• Hot/Dry year (2043) with ground water available
• Hot/Dry year (2043) without ground water
  available
• Warm/Wet year (2045) with ground water available
• Warm/Wet year (20450 without ground water
  available

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Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043
Hot dry year
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Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for
2043
Hot dry year
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Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045
Warm wet year
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Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for
2045
Warm wet year
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2045
wet year with groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 19902045
wet year with groundwater
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2045
wet year with NO groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 19902045
wet year with NO groundwater
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2043
dry year with groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 19902043
dry year with groundwater
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2043
dry year with NO groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 19902043
dry year with NO groundwater
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Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests (with and
without climate change)
Extended growing season and warming
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The increase in growing season length over the
last 50 years averaged for eight stations in
Alaska having the longest and most consistent
temperature records.
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PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey
Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2000)
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PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey
Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2025)
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PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey
Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2050)
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PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul
Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and
Hardwoods (2000)
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PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul
Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and
Hardwoods (2025)
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PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul
Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and
Hardwoods (2050)
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Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia 1993 - 2040
No Climate Change Baseline
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Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia by 2040 with
Had2CMSul Climate Change
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Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 2040 No Climate
Change Baseline
25 DECLINE 5-25 DECLINE CHANGE 5-25 INCREASE
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Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley
Climate Change
5-25 DECLINE INCREASE
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Unlikely Impacts In Southeastern
Forests (dependent of climate change)
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Slash pine
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Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Sweetgum
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Longleaf pine
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Unknown Impacts In Southeastern
Forests (dependent of climate change)
Increasing CO2 on forest growth
Insect and disease impacts
Integrated stress impacts