CLIMATE CHANGE

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CLIMATE CHANGE

• FACT OR MYTH?

Laura Blackburn, LWV-Houston Area
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MANMADE? Or NATURAL CAUSES Or BOTH ????
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• RADIATION
• COMES FROM SUN AS uV
• (HIGH E)
• RADIATED OUT FROM EARTH AS INFRARED (LOW E)
• IN ALL DIRECTIONS FROM CO2

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Infrared
(uV)
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• CARBON DIOXIDE
• ABSORBS INFRARED REFLECTED FROM EARTH
• RELEASES INFRARED IN ALL DIRECTIONS

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TYPES DISTRIBUTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
C
(Chlorofluorohydrocarbons)
(Methane)
Total CO2 76.7
Total CO2 76.7
Reference IPCC 4th Assessment
ReportClimate Change 2007  Synthesis Report
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Current global emissions 38 billion metric
tons/year
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WATER IS ALSO A GREENHOUSE GAS




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TERMITES AND COWS?
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Cows, sheep, etc.
Figure 2-1 Global sources of methane
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TYPES DISTRIBUTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
C
(Chlorofluorohydrocarbons)
(Methane)
Total CO2 76.7
Total CO2 76.7
Reference IPCC 4th Assessment
ReportClimate Change 2007  Synthesis Report
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Source U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
(y-axis units are teragrams of CO2 equivalent)
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For the following graphs, please note the
BEGINNING year
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800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide
Concentration (Lüthi et al. Tans International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Analysis of air bubbles trapped in an Antarctic
ice core extending back 800,000 years.
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• Graph based on
• Tree rings
• Coral and ice cores
• Historical records
• National Academy of Science

Note the close correlation between CO2 and global
surface temperature.
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Note While temperature may be going down, the
trend is still UP!
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Hadley CRU - University of East Anglia Climate
Research Unit MSU Michigan State University
This is a short-term map, which does not show the
long-term trend.
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• Graph based on
• Tree rings
• Coral and ice cores
• Historical records
• National Academy of Science

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However, nine of the worlds hottest years have
occurred this decade.
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• IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
• MELTING GLACIERS INCREASED ICE MELTING AT POLES
• HIGHER SEA LEVELS
• DISAPPEARANCE OF ISLANDS
• LESS FRESH WATER
• INCREASED DESERTIFICATION

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• INCREASED CONFICT OVER RESOURCES
• HIGHER DISEASE RATES
• WEATHER EXTREMES STORMS, HURRICANES, DROUGHT

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• 4th Assessment Report of International Panel on
  Climate Change (2007)
• Estimates of 2100
• Average global temperature rise of 1.1oC and
  6.4oC (2oF - 12oF)
• Sea level rise of 7.0 23 inches
• Predictions
• Coastal erosion and flooding
• Water shortages
• Increase in disease
• Decrease in biodiversity

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MELTING GLACIERS INCREASED ICE MELTING AT POLES
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"Bergie Seltzer"Melting water streams from
iceberg calved from Ilulissat Kangerlua Glacier
in Disko Bay, Greenland. When an iceberg melts,
it makes a fizzing sound called "Bergie Seltzer."
This sound is made when compressed air bubbles
trapped in the iceberg pop.
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February 12, 1993
February 21, 2000
Himalayan Glacier
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Friday, 4 December 2009

Nepal cabinet holds meeting on Mount Everest Nepalese ministers have held the world's highest cabinet meeting on Mount Everest, to raise awareness of the effects of climate change. Nepal cabinet holds meeting on Mount Everest Nepalese ministers have held the world's highest cabinet meeting on Mount Everest, to raise awareness of the effects of climate change.

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Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana
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An iceberg reaches Macquarie Island, 930 miles
southeast of Tasmania, Australia, on Nov. 16
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• NASA Chinese Study of ice cores from 5 Tibetan
  Plateau glaciers
• Melting faster than global warming would suggest
• Found rapid increases in black soot since 1990s
• Mostly from air pollution over Asia, especially
  India
• Soot-darkened snow and glaciers absorb sunlight-?
  increased melting

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Black Soot and the Survival of Tibetan Glaciers
Posted December 15, 2009 NASA Earth
Observatory
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• CAUSES OF RISING SEA LEVELS
• MELTING GLACIERS ICE
• GLOBAL WARMING

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Loading Image...
Open boats on Shennong Stream, in the Three
Gorges off the Yangtze River in China
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• MAJOR RIVERS AFFECTED
• Yangtze
• Makong
• Indus

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Melting of Glaciers and Ice Sheets Thermal
Expansion
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Table 1. Estimated potential maximum sea-level
rise from the total melting of present-day
glaciers. http//pubs.usgs.gov/factsheet/fs50-98/

LOCATION POTENTIAL SEA-LEVEL RISE (m)

East Antarctic ice sheet.. 64.8
West Antarctic ice sheet 8.06
Antarctic Peninsula 0.46
Greenland 6.55
All other ice caps, ice fields,
and valley glaciers.. 0.45
TOTAL 80.32


 



What would happen to Houston if the glaciers and
ice of Greenland melted?
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New Orleans
Houston
Miami

U.S.G.S. One meter rise in sea levels would
affect 25 of of U.S. population.
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What would happen to London? To Amsterdam? To
Calais?
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RESULTS OF RISING SEAS
A woman speaks on her phone in flood waters
during a period of seasonal high water in Venice
November 30, 2009. The water level in the canal
city rose to 130 cm (4 feet) above normal,
according to the monitoring institute.
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Date 14-Dec-09Country INDONESIAAuthor
REUTERS
Photo Yusuf Ahmad A Woman Prepares A Meal
Inside Her House Which Is Surrounded By Sea Water
As A Result Of Rising Sea Levels In Una Una,
Indonesia
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More Slide Shows
The loss of permafrost and protective sea ice may
force villages like Alaska's Shismaref to
relocate.
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Aerial photo of Male Atoll, Republic of
Maldives. Atoll will vanish with 2ºC temperature
rise. NG Photo
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DESERTIFICATION
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Northwestern Kenya's drought has brought conflict between pastoralists
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• LOSS OF WATER TO OCEANS WITH ICE SNOW MELTS
• SHIFTING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AS EARTHS
  SURFACE TEMPERATURE INCREASES

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A villager walks through a partially dried
reservoir in Yingtan, Jiangxi province October
29, 2009.Photo Reuters
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The Milluni reservoir has receded as glaciers
that provide some of Bolivia's water and
electricity have melted and disappeared.
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CONFLICT!
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• Department of Defense military and intelligence
  analysts studying climate change have concluded
• Prospect of military intervention to deal with
  effects of
• Violent storms
• Drought
• Mass migration
• Pandemics
• Flooding

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RAINFORESTS
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• CARBON DIXOIDE SINK
• ABSORB 1/5 OF WORLDS CARBON EMISSIONS RELEASED
  BY BURNING
• WORLDS GREATEST NUMBER OF NEW SPECIES

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A farmer stands next to the burnt Amazon forest
next to the city of Careiro da Varzea November
28, 2009.
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COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
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• IPCC FINDINGS
• Stabilizing CO2 concentrations from 445 to 535
  ppm
• (Environmentalists want 350 ppm) and
• Limiting temperature from 2º to 3ºC
• ? ? Reduce annual growth rate of GDP by
  0.12
• 2008 GDP 14.2 Trillion
• Cost of mitigation/year 17 Billion
• Cost of war in Iraq in 2008 12 Billion/month

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• Highlights of the Copenhagen Climate Accord
• Emissions
• Developed countries reduce their emissions
  individually or jointly.
• Developing countries also take mitigation
  actions.
• Monitoring
• Developing countries will monitor emissions and
  climate data domestically, with provisions for
  international consultations and analysis.
• Aid to poor countries
• Developed countries set goal to raise 100
  billion a year by 2020 and to help poor countries
  fight climate change.
• 30 billion for the next three years.

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• Forestry
• Says reducing emissions from deforestation is
  crucial. New funds will be provided to pay
  countries for conserving forests.
• Temperature statement
• The increase in global temperature should be
  below two degrees Celsius.
• Legal status
• Not legally binding.
• Next meeting November, 2010

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• PLEDGES TO ACCORD
• Canada 0.25 by 2020 from 1990
• EU -20-30 by 2020 from
• Iceland -30 by 2020 from
• Japan -25 by 2020 from
• Maldives Carbon neutrality by 2019
• Mexico Up to -30 based on Business as usual
  scenario
• 7. New Zealand -10-20 by 2020 from 1990
• 8. Norway -30-40 by 2020 from 1990
• 9. Russia -15-25 by 2020 from

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• CONCLUSIONS
• Global warming is happening.
• The correlation between global temperature and
  carbon dioxide concentration is very high.

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• Graph based on
• Tree rings
• Coral and ice cores
• Historical records
• National Academy of Science

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3. Even if we reduce greenhouse gases
dramatically, it will take hundreds of years to
recover. 4. What kind of world are we leaving to
our children and grandchildren? If Climate
Change proponents are wrong, we get cleaner
energy, water and air. If Climate skeptics are
wrong, our Planet dies. What is your choice?