US Corn Near Term Supply

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US Corn Near Term Supply DemandJune 9, 2008

• Paul Bertels
• Dir. Biotechnology Economic Analysis
• Max Starbuck
• Director Production, Stewardship Livestock

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Summary

• Supply and Demand
• U.S.
• Texas
• Current Crop
• Trends
• Market Drivers

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US Corn Supply and Demand
Source USDA, WAOB ProExporter Network
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Texas Corn Supply and Demand
Source USDA, WAOB ProExporter Network
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Texas Primary Crop Acreage
Data Source USDA, NASS Prospective Plantings
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Illinois Rail Loaders

• 6 Unit car facilities on BNSF
• 50 of Texas corn imports comes from Illinois
  (310 trains)
• 25 of Mexican rail corn imports comes from
  Illinois (140 trains)
• Additional rail loader under construction (late
  2009)
• BNSF looking at additional sites

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Illinois Corn Yields
USDA
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U.S. Corn Use by Species
Source ProExporter Network Projections
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U.S. Corn Exports
Data Source USDA,FAS
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Ethanol Returns
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Are Storm Clouds Brewing?
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Prospective Plantings vs. Actual Acreage
8-yr average deviation 1.1 mil acres
USDA
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Corn Planting Progress
USDA Planting Progress Report
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CORN CONDITION REPORT
CME Daily Livestock Report 6/2/08
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Summer Weather
June-July-August Precipitation
June-July-August Temperature
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Corn Yields 2007 Monsanto
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Higher Corn Yields
NCGA Corn Yield Contest
385.6
271.1
151.1
Source NCGA Corn Yield Guide
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Corn Basis (Central IL)
Data Source USDA, AMS
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The Influence of Wall Street
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Commodity Fund Investments
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Commitment of Traders
Source CFTC, COT, 29 Apr 08, 02 May 06
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Questions
Max Starbuck National Corn Growers
Association [phone] starbuck_at_ncga.com
Thank You