Vegetable and Ornamental

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Vegetable and Ornamental Outlooks
2004 Agribusiness Economic Outlook
Conference Wen-fei Uva Senior Extension
Associate Department of Applied Economics and
Management
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VegetableOutlook
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2002 Production Value of New York Vegetable
Production Totaled 384 million
Source New York Agricultural Statistics,
2002-2003.
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NOTE The total 2002 figure is NOT comparable to
2000 2001 figures

• Estimates for 4 of the 6 crops added to the fresh
  market vegetable program in 2000 were
  discontinued in 2002 bell peppers, eggplant,
  endive/escarole and spinach.
• Estimates for processing beets and cabbage for
  kraut were discontinued in 2002
• Estimate for processing sweet corn was not
  published to avoid disclosure of individual
  operations in 2002.

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NYS Fresh Market Vegetables

• 291 million in 2002 - 3 of U.S. total (down
  from 6 in 2001)

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Other Vegetable Crops

• Processing Vegetables
• 25.5 million in 2002 about 2 of the U.S.
  total
• Potatoes
• 59.6 million in 2002 up 13 percent from 2001
• Production totaled 5.5 million cwt in 2002- down
  7 from 2001, estimated to be 6.5 m cwt in 2003
  (up 18)
• Increase in production value mainly from higher
  prices
• Dry Beans
• 7.3 million in 2002 up 52 percent from 2001
• Production totaled 333,000 cwt, - up 72 from
  2001
• Production is expected to decline in all major
  production states in 2003
• Prices are expected to rise for most classes in
  2003

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Consumption

• In 2002, per capita use of all vegetables
  melons was 439 lbs.

Others include sweet potato, dry beans, and
mushrooms. Source ERS, USDA, Vegetable and
Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook, July
2003.
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Consumption Fresh Vegetables

• Per capita consumption was 221 pounds (inc.
  potatoes, sweet potatoes mushroom) in 2002
  down 2 from 2001
• Decline in 2002 was mainly in leafy green
  vegetables lettuces, cabbages and broccoli
  inclement weather reduced output during the
  first 3 months.
• Tomatoes, cucumber, onions, bell peppers, and
  asparagus used increased in 2002.
• 2003 per capita consumption is projected to
  recover to 2001 level

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Consumption Processing Vegetables

• Per capita use (excluding potatoes, sweet
  potatoes, and mushrooms) increased 3 to 118.5
  lbs in 2002.
• Per capita consumption of frozen sweet corn
  increased 2 in 2002
• Canned sweet corn, green peas, and beets
  continued their long-term decline.
• Improvement in the general economy this summer
  and fall
• Projected a 2 increase in per capita use of
  processing vegetable in 2003 led by tomatoes
  and sweet corn

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• Potato Consumption
• Per capita use of potatoes fell 2 in 2002 to
  about 135 lbs.
• Decrease in both fresh and processing uses.
• Consumption of potatoes is showing a downward
  trend since 1996 (145 lbs)
• Popularity of low-carb diets more restaurants
  offering alternatives to potatoes
• Dry Bean Consumption
• Per capita use of dry bean rose 3 to 7.5 lbs
  (22 higher than 1980s)
• Popularity of vegetarian diets

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Industry Situation Outlook

• The Organic Market
• About 2 of U.S. vegetable acreage (NY similar)
• More than 10 of the vegetables grown in Vermont,
  New Hampshire, Maine Colorado
• Assistance ( 1 M) from USDA on certification
  costs
• Continue to grow beyond health-food markets
• New retailers (7-Eleven) and more producers (Foxy
  Food) are entering the field
• Organic food company are expanding into
  non-traditional markets convenient stores,
  sports stadiums, and food service channels
  (schools, hospitals other institutions)
• Overseas markets developing
• Imports complement domestic offerings

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Industry Situation Outlook

• Eating Healthy -------
• Demand for entrée salads in restaurants up 6.7.
• Applebee entered a 5-year partnership with Weight
  Watchers to slim down its menu.
• Baja Fresh is playing up produce in lighter menu
• Success of fast-food salads fueling demand for
  lettuce (demand up 12)
• Wal-Mart Effect-----
• 19 market share today to 35 projected in 5
  yrs
• Survive as what Wal-Mart is not become better
  managed, more efficient , more effective
  merchandising
• Country of Origin September 30, 2004?

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Ornamental Outlook
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NY 2002 floriculture and nursery production
totaled 315.0 million
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Floriculture Crop Production

• Totaled 4.9 billion in the U.S. up 1.6 from
  2001
• Weak U.S. economy in 2001 2002 is responsible
  for flat sales
• Expected to increase 2 to 5 billion in 2003
  from higher import prices and economy recovery
• Grower wholesale prices flat in general

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Floriculture Crop Production

• 185 million in NY, up 8 from 2001
• Ranked 6th in the nation

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Number of Growers Declining

• U.S. -- 12,717 floriculture crop growers in 1997
  10,216 in 2002
• NY decreased for the fifth consecutive year --
  from 731 growers in 2001 to 663 in 2002.
• Large growers (gt100,000 annual sales) continue
  to expand consolidation expansion

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Small vs. Large, 2002
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Industry Situation Outlook

• Lawn and garden spending is stable at around
  325/HH
• Highest spending communities are in major metro
  locations and their suburbs - Along the East
  Coast from southern Maine to central Virginia,
  and on the West Coast from the Bay area south to
  San Diego.
• Improving economic outlook
• The housing market continues to be a solid part
  of the economic recovery
• Mass marketers continue to present marketing
  challenges
• Getting Bigger by going smaller - Wal-Marts
  Neighborhood Market, Home Depots Landscape
  Supply Stores

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Industry Situation Outlook

• Consumers continue to search for that special
  thing
• Container gardening is going main stream
• Growing at nearly a 20 annual rate
• Lifestyle gardening
• Outdoor living indoor gardening
• The whole package furniture, fabric, music
  fun
• Organic Eco-Labeling
• Organic in Lowes
• West Coast, urban Texas the Northeast are the
  hot markets
• Impact of International Trade
• Outsourcing of plant production - Traceability
  and disease control - The Ralstonia Scare

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Industry Situation Outlook

• Focusing on Plants - Plants are the Basic
• Diversify of products
• Color, shape, use
• Is that indoor or outdoor plant?
• Promoting plants
• National Brands - Proven Winner, Flower Fields,
  Simply Beautiful
• Promotion Alliance among regional growers
• American in Bloom campaign in about 40
  communities
• National growers promote regional qualities in
  plants
• Monrovias POP allows retailers to customize
  signs with regional information
• David Austin Roses Flower Fields P. Allen
  Smiths Garden Home Collection are testing plants
  for region-specific recommendations

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