Moteur de Recherche

1
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
Africa in the new oil geopolitics
JP. Favennec Director - Centre for Economics and
Management IFP School Institut français du pétrole
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance
Conference and Exhibition Marrakech, April 26-30
2004
2
PETROLEUM WORLDWIDE IN 2002
3
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Mtoe
10 000
9 000
Electricity
8 000
Gas
7 000
6 000
5 000
Oil
4 000
3 000
2 000
Coal
1 000
0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Nuclear and hydroelectricity
Source BP Statistical Review
4
WORLD RESERVES (1.1.2003)
Possibles
2800
(109 toe)
(1) Quantities which can be recovered for less
than 80 /kg (2) Quantities which can be
recovered for less than 130 /kg (3) Present
technology (Pressurised Water Reactor) (4)
Recoverable (5) R/P Proven Reserves/Production
ratio
R/P 204
In place
600
Proven
R/P 41 (5)
Enhanced
recovery
532
Yet to be
Probable
discovered
100
R/P 61
120
100
Proven
Proven
R/P 65
39,5 (2)
22,7 (1)
143
143
(4)
80
(3)
COAL
NON-
LIQUID
URANIUM
NATURAL
LIGNITE
CONVENTIONAL
HYDROCARBONS
GAS
Source BP Statistical Review, CEA, IFP / DSEP
5
THE PLACE OF AFRICA IN THE WORLD OIL RESERVES
(Proven oil reserves as at 1st January 2003)
CIS 7.5
TOTAL 143 Gt
Canada 0.7
USA 2.9
Europe 1.8
North Africa 3.9
Mexico 1.2
Middle East 64.9
Venezuela 7.4
Indonesia 0,5
Oceania 3.2
West Africa 3.2
includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen
Source BP Statistical Review
6
ESTIMATED PROVEN RESERVES AND PRODUCTIONFOR
MAJOR AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
36 000
Libya
1,48
25 000
Nigeria
2,12
11 300
Algeria
1,86
5 400
Angola
0,92
3 700
Egypt
0,62
2 500
Gabon
0,30
1 500
Congo
0,26
1 100
Proven Reserves (Mb)
Equatorial Guinea
0,18
Production (Mb/d)
900
Chad
0,18
563
Sudan
0,12
Février 2004
Source BP Statistical Review, EIA, Oil Gas
Journal
7
CRUDE PRICE VARIATION
100
2002
(1875)
(1911) Dissolution
current
90
Rockefeller
of Standard Oil
80
Period of
(1979) Iranian
control by
70
revolution
(1990)
Rockefeller
Irak/
60
(1928) Achnacarry
Kuwait
agreement
(1973) Yom
war
50
Kippur war
40
(1960)
Foundation
30
of OPEC
20
10
0
1861
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
1861-1944 USA average, 1945-1985 Arabian Light
posted at Ras Tanura, 1986-2002 Brent Spot
Source BP Stat. Review
8
OIL PRICES REFERENCES
Production costs 3 - 15 /
bbl Break even price for international oil
companies 20 / bbl Price to
meet producing countries budget requirement
20 - 25 / bbl
9
MAIN OIL FLOWS IN 2000 (Mt)
165
290
80
125
1120
90
165
135
80
10
EVOLUTION OF AFRICAS SHARE IN WORLD CRUDE OIL
PRODUCTION
13690 b/d (12,2 )
Thousands barrels per day
120000
100000
7803 b/d (10,5 )
Africa
Asia Pacific
80000
5047 b/d (9,0 )
Middle East
60000
Europe Eurasia
S. Cent. America
40000
North America
20000
0
1975
2000
2025
Source BP Statistical Review, Energy Information
Administration
11
MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE USA IN 2003 (000
b/d)
113
USA Total imports 9 646 From Africa 1 466
Algeria
Nigeria
Gabon
838
Congo
131
23
Angola
361
Source Energy Information Administration
12
MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION IN
2002 (000 b/d)
EuropeanUnion Total imports 9 652 From Africa
1 806
325
75
745
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Nigeria
Cameroon
Gabon
375
Congo
122
164
Angola
Source European Commission
13
MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO ASIA IN 2002 (000 b/d)
China(1) Total imports 1 209 From Africa 272
100
Sudan
96
Other Africa
Nigeria
76
OECDAsia Pacific(2) Total imports 6 738 From
Africa 331
Gabon
Other Africa
162
10
Angola
93
66
(1) 2001 data(2) OECD Asia Pacific includes
Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea
Source International Energy Agency, China OGP
14
SHARE OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE ECONOMY OF AFRICAN
COUNTRIES - 2002 -
of revenus
of exports
of GDP
Country
90 60 94 81 95 90
45 5 67 73 40 86
90 20 80 60 83 61
ANGOLA CAMEROON CONGO GABON NIGERIA EQUAT.
GUINEA
Estimates Source ,CRS, World Bank, IMF, CIA
World Factbook 2002, EIA
AF021 - April 2004
15
KEY PRODUCING ZONES
Caspian Area
Gulf of Mexico
30 Gb
West Africa
3 Gb
27 Gb