Legislative Agenda for Addressing the Carbon Problem

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Legislative Agenda for Addressing the Carbon
Problem
National Council for Science and the
Environment Washington, DC January 18, 2008
Kenneth A. Colburn Center for Climate
Strategies kcolburn_at_symbioticstrategies.com 617-78
4-6975
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Comparing Two Emission Scenarios

• Selected from the available IPCC scenario runs
• Neither a floor or a ceiling

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IPCC FAR - Working Group III
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Comparing Two Emission Scenarios

• Selected from the available IPCC scenario runs
• Neither a floor or a ceiling

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Global Carbon Project GHG Emissions Trajectory
50-year constant growth rates to 2050 A1FI
2.4 A1B 1.7 A2 1.8 B1 1.1
Observed 2000-2006 3.3
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
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Comparing Two Emission Scenarios

• Selected from the available IPCC scenario runs
• Neither a floor or a ceiling

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Why Are States Leading on Climate?

• States have always led
• Origin of innovative approaches (Laboratories)
• Where consensus is built and conflicts resolved
• Where implementation really happens (Proving
  Ground)
• Prior lead-by-example success (Acid Rain, toxics,
  Hg, cars, etc.)
• Proactive
• See economic opportunity
• Get head start on technological opportunities and
  markets
• Get savings, productivity, security, and health
  co-benefits
• See political opportunity
• Gretsky Skate to where the puck is going to
  be.
• Precautionary
• Want to avoid severe climate impacts risks
• Know climate policy is coming want to shape it
  favorably
• Are significant GHG emitters
• Gough If youre not at the table, youre on
  the menu.

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States Consistently Shape Federal Policy

• More pioneers than laboratories where real
  policy gets hammered out

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Political Benefits Are Increasingly Clear

OMalley MD Join RGGI
Schwarzenegger CA State Cap
Richardson NM New Targets
Patrick MA Join RGGI
Napolitano AZ New Targets
Spitzer NY 100 RGGI Auction 200 million
Ritter CO GHG Market
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www.azclimatechange.us
285,000 jobs
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Arizona Climate Plan Results

• 49 Recommendations 45 Unanimous
• NPV 5.5 Billion Savings

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Similar Results in Other States
- 69 Recommendations 67 Unanimous - NPV
2.1 Billion Savings - Reductions exceeded
Governors goals.
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GHG Reduction Strategies
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All Sectors All Mechanisms
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Sampling of State Climate Plan Results
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States with GHG Cost Data
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Contribution by Sector
DRAFT
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Comparison to National Bills
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Potential US Net Economic Cost/Savings by Sector
DRAFT
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Economy-Wide Supply Curve
1990 GHG levels by 2020 25 billion net savings
DRAFT
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Jobs Savings Impact of EE in Florida
ACEEE, Potential for Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy to Meet Floridas Growing Energy
Demands, June 2007.
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Energy Supply Jobs

• Across a broad range of scenarios, the renewable
  energy sector generates more jobs than the fossil
  fuel-based energy sector per unit of energy
  delivered (i.e., per average megawatt).
• Supporting renewables within a comprehensive
  energy policy that includes EE and sustainable
  transportation will yield far greater employment
  benefits than supporting 1-2 of these sectors
  separately.
• More effort gt more jobs.

Source Daniel Kammen et al, UC Berkeley,
Putting Renewables to Work, April 2004.
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Economic Opportunity

• The bolder proposition we should be considering
• Climate policy as a path to economic development
  and job growth

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Take-Home Messages from States

• Economic Opportunity Knocks, and Climate
  Urgency Insists
• Not a One Size Fits All Situation
• Silver Buckshot? Maybe even Silver Birdshot
  (sectors x mechanisms)
• Rather, Address Climate Comprehensively Using
  Each Policy Tool Where Best Suited
• Cap Trade
• Carbon Tax or Other Price Signal
• Performance or Emissions Standards
• Incentives, Public Education, etc.

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Thank Youfor YourTime and Attention!
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Global Carbon Project Conclusions
Since 2000

• The growth of carbon emissions from fossil fuels
  has tripled compared to the 1990s, exceeding the
  predictions of the highest IPCC scenarios.

• Atmospheric CO2 has grown at 1.9 ppm per year
  (vs. 1.5 ppm over last 30 years)

• The carbon intensity of the worlds economy has
  stopped decreasing (after 100 years of doing so).

• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by
  10 over the last 50 years -- and will continue
  to do so in the future (gt the longer we wait,
  the larger the cuts needed to stabilize
  atmospheric CO2).

• All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle
  that is generating stronger climate forcing and
  sooner than expected.

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State GHG Abatement Supply Curves (/Ton GHG
Removed)

• 12 states with facilitated, comprehensive GHG
  plans
• Actions with /ton for all sectors (excludes
  major non-quantified actions expected to yield
  net savings)
• Data is the product of facilitated stakeholder
  consensus processes (bottom up, transparent)
• Most recent data from plans implementation
  results are included for past and some present
  actions
• Data reported for 2020 (with scaling as needed)
• Specific data sources, methods, assumptions in
  report appendices (available through CCS)

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Cleantech Venture Investments by Sector
E2/Cleantech Venture Network, Cleantech Venture
Capital How Public Policy Has Stimulated Private
Investment, May 2007.
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Economic Opportunity
Climate change is a tectonic force that will
change the economic landscape firms that
recognize early, and respond imaginatively and
constructively will create opportunities for
themselves and thereby prosper. Lehman
Brothers
US clean-tech investment 2005 1.5
billion 2006 2.9 billion 2009 8.7
billion (projected) Margaret Beckett
International carbon market 2005 12
billion 2006 29 billion 2007 31 billion
(estimated) Point Carbon
U.S. energy sector investment (now through 2030)
21 trillion International Energy Agency
Energy will be the largest economic opportunity
this century. John Doerr, Venture Capitalist
(Google, Amazon)
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Policy Matters!
Source David Goldstein
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It Can Be Done