Long Term Vision on Urban Air Quality in Asia

1
Long Term Vision on Urban Air Quality in Asia
Draft 3 January, 2008
Cornie Huizenga Executive Director CAI-Asia
Center January, 2008
Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia
Program
2
Background

• First governmental meeting on urban air quality
  in Yogyakarta, December 2006 requested UNEP and
  CAI-Asia to take the lead in the development of a
  Long Term Vision (LTV) on the improvement of air
  quality in Asian cities.
• The LTV will discussed at the 2 nd. Governmental
  meeting on urban air quality, which is planned
  for late June in Bangkok.
• UNEP has requested CAI-Asia to prepare a
  background document (30-40 pages) and a policy
  makers summary (4-5) pages.
• It is intended that UNEP and CAI-Asia will
  conduct consultations on the draft policy makers
  summary prior to the 2 nd. Governmental meeting
  in June 2008.
• First draft of the LTV to be available by March
  2008

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Asia at a turning point

• Economically
• Accelerated economic growth
• China and India buying (into) Western companies
• Asia increasingly dependent on import of energy
  resources
• China and India competing for natural resources
  in Africa
• Development of production basis and increased
  consumption of capital and consumer goods (e.g.
  construction, cars, food)
• Asia is taking different route from Europe and
  USA 2-3 wheelers, e-bikes, and cheap cars

• Demographically
• Population growth continues
• Increasing urbanization, soon 50 living in
  cities
• Environmentally
• Natural resource depletion putting strain on
  economic growth
• Develop first- clean up afterwards paradigm being
  questioned
• Bali consensus 20 reduction in GHG emissions by
  2050 (after initial growth)
• Institutional capacity to manage/protect
  environment in Asia is not keeping pace with
  economic development

4
The importance of scale

• Asia has about 2500 cities of 100.000 people and
  above. Many of these cities will take policy and
  investment decisions in the next 5 years which
  determine the character of transport systems and
  energy systems for the next 30 years.
• A successful approach to reduce urban AQ and GHG
  emissions requires influencing investment
  decisions in all these 2500 cities
• Business as Usual will not lead to required
  change
• Success will be determined by
• The manner in which project approach can be
  combined with sector and policy approaches
• The level of coordination and cooperation between
  external organizations working with Asian cities

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The way to sustainable change ..
Knowledge Management
Capacity Building
Institutional Capacity
Policy Development
Implementation Investments
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Change No short Cuts
Local champion, leading the way with one-off
ideas, projects, or one off locations
External Assistance (ideas-training-pilot
projects)
New paradigms, e.g climate change or BRT

• Create parallel structures
• Special delivery vehicles with high level of
  effectiveness
• Duplication of organizational mandates and
  possibly organizational confusion

• Long March Through the Institutions
• Change culture
• Change mission, mandates, policies
• Change planning and budgeting
• Change organizational linkages

Impact quick(er) but how structural?
Impact slow(er) but more far reaching and
comprehensive?
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Change the importance of local
ownership/financing
Sustainable Urban Transport/Energy
Financing
Policies
Institutional capacity
Capital Expenses
Operation/ Maintenance
International private sector
ODA
Carbon Financing
Loans
Public Financing
Private Financing
TAs
Carbon Funds

• Rates
• Taxes
• Fees
• Subsidies
• Earmarked funds
• Permits concessions
• Etc.

Guarantees
GEF
International private sector
CDM
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Policy shaping forces institutional capacity
Institutional capacity
Economic growth

• As economies continue to grow in Asia additional
  institutional capacity can be created to address
  AQ problems
• Sophistication of capacity will allow more
  complex solution strategies
• Economic growth will generate financial resources
  to address urban air pollution problems
• LTV to present a development path for
  institutional structures and capacity to address
  urban air quality problems

9
Policy shaping forces health concerns and WHO
health guidelines

• WHO issues on a regular basis updates to its
  guideline values for different pollutants. The
  trend has been to strengthen guideline values
  and to for particulate to focus on smaller sizes
  of Particulate matter TSP PM10 PM 2.5
  ?PM1?
• Concerns about health impacts of other pollutants
  such as air toxics expected to increase as
  economic development progresses

10
Policy shaping forces concerns on economic
impacts of air pollution

• Economic Impacts
• Health impacts Various
• Environmental impacts
• Crops
• Visibility
• Corrosion
• Knowledge on Economic Impacts is imperfect but
  awareness is growing that these impacts will
  become more significant if economic growth
  continues and AQM does not improve in
  effectiveness

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Policy shaping forces cost benefit of AQM
measures

• Research in USA, Europe and Japan has clearly
  demonstrated that various AQM measures have a
  high rate of return. At the same time non-action
  can result in economic costs of 1-3 of GDP
• Implementation of EU plans on GHG reductions can
  result in up to 10 billion Euro in costs of air
  pollution control up to 2020

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Policy shaping forces MDGs

• MDGs, especially No.7 will in their own right,
  help to move environmental AQM agenda forward
• Economic growth required to meet the other MDGs
  will generate additional pressure on environment

• Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Achieve universal primary education
• Promote gender equality and empower women
• Reduce child mortality
• Improve maternal health
• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
• Ensure environmental sustainability
• Develop a global partnership for development

13
Policy shaping forces (sub)regional agreements
on AQ in Asia

• Convention on Long Range Transport of Air
  Pollutants (CLRTAP) in Europe had a strong
  influence on the strengthening of air quality
  management policies in Europe
• Currently several sub-regional AQ initiatives in
  Asia which have the potential to grow into
  regional or sub-regional agreements in Asia
• Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia
  (EANET)
• Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air
  Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects
  for South Asia
• The Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) program
• The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze
  Pollution
• Northeast Asian Environment Program
• Effective regional or sub-regional agreements
  will be able to spark-off intensified AQM efforts
  in Asia

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Asia as the workshop of the World

• Increasingly Asia is acting as the manufacturing
  center of the world
• Associated with the shifting of production
  pollution also starts to get shifted
• Future balance of production and trade will
  influence local urban air pollution
• What will happen if Europe and the USA implement
  plans to tax carbon intensive products

15
Policy shaping forces technology
Asian technological solutions
new low carbon technologies
low hanging technological fruits
2008
2030

• Asia has benefited in the past from technological
  developments in the developed world, for the
  coming years there are considerable low hanging
  fruits for Asia, many of which do not require
  substantive investments and more software
  oriented
• The emphasis on low carbon technology development
  in other parts of the world will generate new
  fruit for Asia
• Asia has demonstrated the potential to develop
  relevant technological solutions E-bikes which
  have carbon and AQ relevance

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Policy Shaping Forces Co-benefits

• Integrating air pollution abatement and climate
  change mitigation policies offers potentially
  large cost reductions compared to treating those
  policies in isolation Source IPCC Fourth
  Assessment Report, 2006

17
Policy shaping forces International Climate
discussions

• Fourth Assessment Report IPCC WG III, calls for
  drastic cut in global emissions by 2050 (60-80
  for developed countries and 20 for developing
  countries) compared to 1990
• Bali Action Plan call for national appropriate
  mitigation actions by developing country Parties
  in the context of sustainable development,
  supported and enabled by technology, financing
  and capacity building, in a measurable,
  reportable and verifiable manner (Bali Action
  Plan, 2007 1, b, ii.)

18
Policy shaping forces European and Californian
legislation on climate

• European Union - plans call for
• 20 reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 (30 in
  case of international agreement)
• 20 increase in energy efficiency
• 20 share of renewables in overall EU energy
  consumption by 2020
• 10 biofuel component in vehicle fuels by 2020
• The EU plans will lead to changes in the EUTS
  (emission trading system) and an increase in the
  price of carbon
• California - AB 32 reduce GHG emissions by 2020
  to 1990 levels (25 reduction)
• California has adopted direct actions to be
  implemented by January 1 2010 or before. Beyond
  this
• January 1, 2009 adopt scoping plan to support
  this objective
• January 1, 2011 issue regulations to implement
  scoping plan
• January 1, 2012 begin implementation
• California is now developing a low carbon fuel
  standard which will influence global bio-fuels
  debate

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Policy shaping forces the future of carbon
financing

• Bali (side events) consensus CDM not effective in
  reaching impacts required in reduction of growth
  of GHG emissions
• Transport, most rapid growing sector in Asia not,
  or barely covered by CDM
• Additionality criteria does not promote putting
  in place more effective GHG reduction goals in
  Asia
• Possible revisions to CDM sector and policy
  oriented

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Integrating AQM and Climate Change
Climate Change Adaptation
AQ Management
Climate Change Mitigation
Action
Integrated Inventories based on common
methodologies
Air pollutant Emission Inventories
Analysis
GHG Emission inventories

• Common weaknesses
• Reliable Activity data
• Emission factors

• Energy use
• Domestic
• Industrial
• Power generation

• Transport
• Road transport
• Shipping
• Aviation
• Rail

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Aims of LTV

• To get a recorded consensus among Asian countries
  on the importance of clean air as part of overall
  socio-economic development
• Acknowledgement that air quality management is a
  long term process with different phases, the
  timing of which will be different for different
  countries and different for various parts of one
  country
• Have agreement on the public sector taking a lead
  role in a broad based multi-stakeholder approach
  in managing air quality
• Acknowledgement of the interrelationship between
  efforts to clean the air and to manage climate
  change
• Outline pathways leading up to better air quality

• The LTV will NOT be a detailed roadmap to clean
  air

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Time-span LTV

• Proposed to provide LTV for up to 2030
• 2030 date improves chances for an open discussion
  which is not tied down by current realities
• Before 2030 no large changes in technology
  deployment expected in Asia e.g. Fuel cell
  vehicles and carbon sequestration
• 2030 will be significant mile stone in the
  discussions on climate change in Asia, which will
  be helpful for future projections and scenario
  analysis

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LTV Process

• Background document 30-40 pages
• Broad based consultations with organizations
  working in Asia to obtain inputs for background
  document e.g. HEI on health, EPA on
  technologies, SUMA partners on sustainable urban
  transport, UNEP on regional air quality issues
  (January March, 2008)
• Limited circulation of background document
  (March-April 2008)
• Discussion of background document in selected
  development partner meetings, organized by
  CAI-Asia together with its local network (4-5
  countries)
• Policy makers summary 4-5 pages
• Limited circulation among experts by CAI-Asia
  (April 2008)
• Circulation among governments by UNEP (April
  May 2008)
• Consultations LTV policy makers summary by
  CAI-Asia and UNEP (May-June 2008)
• Discussion LTV policy makers summary June 2008 at
  2 nd. Governmental meeting