Patricia Dehmer

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U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Science
Basic Energy Research and Development Needsfor a
Long-Term National Energy Strategy
Energy, Citizens, and Economic Transformation for
Indiana and America Notre Dame Energy Center and
University of Notre Dame 7 July 2008

• Patricia Dehmer
• Deputy for Science Programs
• Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy
• Download this talk at http//www.science.doe.gov/S
  C-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm

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Technology, Infrastructure, and Fuels Mix Have
Evolved Together over 100 Years 19th century
discoveries and 20th century technologies are
with us today.
U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Wind, water, wood, animals, (Mayflower,1620)
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Energy Facts That We Should Know

• Energy consumption today
• Energy needs through the 21st century
• Energy sources and consumption sectors in the
  U.S.
• Fossil fuel reserves
• Nuclear and renewable energy
• Energy and the environment

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Energy consumption today
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U.S. and World Energy Consumption Today
446 Quads
World
United States
100 Quads
China
Russia
Some equivalent ways of referring to the energy
used by the U.S. in 1 year (approx. 100
Quads) 100.0 quadrillion British Thermal Units
(Quads) U.S. British unit of energy 105.5 exa
Joules (EJ) Metric unit of energy 3.346
terawatt-years (TW-yr) Metric unit of power
(energy/sec)x(seconds in a year)
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U.S. Energy Production and Consumption Since
1950The U.S. was self sufficient in energy until
the late 1950s.
The United States was self-sufficient in energy
until the late 1950s when energy consumption
began to outpace domestic production. At that
point, the Nation began to import more energy to
fill the gap. In 2005, net imported energy
accounted for 30 percent of all energy consumed.
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Energy needs through the 21st century
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World Energy Needs will Grow Significantly in the
21st Century
Projections to 2030 are from the Energy
Information Administration, International Energy
Outlook, 2007.
World Primary Energy Consumption (Quads)
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Energy Demand Grows with Economic Development
PPP Purchasing Power Parity - A rate of
exchange that accounts for price differences
across countries allowing international
comparisons of real output and incomes.
Source UN and DOE EIA, Slide courtesy of Steven
E. Koonin, Chief Scientist, BP, plc
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Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S.
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads Quadrillion BTU
1015 BTU) About 1/3 of U.S. primary energy is
imported.
Exports 5
Domestic Production 71 Quads
Consumption 100 Quads
Energy Consumption
Energy Supply (Quads)
Imports 34 Quads
Adjustments 1
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) 85 of primary
energy is from fossil fuels
Residential
Commerical
Industrial
Transportation
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) gt70 of primary
energy for the transportation sectorand gt60 of
primary energy for electricity generation/use is
lost

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Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
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U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) At midcentury,
the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used
today and with greater overall efficiency.
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Overall Efficiency of an Incandescent Bulb ? 2
Example of energy lost during conversion and
transmission. Imagine that the coal needed to
illuminate an incandescent light bulb contains
100 units of energy when it enters the power
plant. Only two units of energy eventually light
the bulb. The remaining 98 units are lost along
the way, primarily as heat.
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Illumination of the Night Sky 2/3 of the U.S
population has lost naked-eye visibility of the
Milky Way
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id1438l
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Fossil fuel reserves
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How Large are Fossil Fuel Reserves? Reserves-to-
Production (R/P) ratios provide an estimate of
years of reserves remaining

• The R/P ratio is the number of years that proved
  reserves would last at current production rates.
• World R/P ratios are Oil 40.5 years
  Natural Gas 66.7 years Coal 164 years
• U.S. R/P ratios are Oil 11.1 years
  Natural Gas 9.8 years Coal 245 years

200
164 yrs.
Proven World Reserves-to-Production Ratio at End
2004 (Years)
100
66.7 yrs.
40.5 yrs.
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
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Peak Oil When Will Oil Production Peak?
Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios The Future
Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert, John
H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/featu
re_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
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Nuclear and renewable energy
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Nuclear and Renewable Energies are 15 of Energy
SupplyHydroelectric and wood still dominate the
renewable energies
8.21 quads of Nuclear Electric Power are produced
by 104 operable nuclear power plants in the U.S.
(i.e., average nuclear power plant 0.08 quads)
Coal 23
Nuclear 8
Renewables 7
Petroleum 40
Natural Gas 22
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Construction Permits for U.S. Power Reactors were
Issued Only Until 1979
8.23 quads of Nuclear Electric Power is produced
by 104 operable nuclear power plants in the U.S.
(i.e., average nuclear power plant 0.08 quads)
300
Units Ordered
250
200
Construction Permits Issued
Number of Units
150
Full-power Operating Licenses
100
Operable Units
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Shutdowns
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
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Nuclear Energy Provides 20 of U.S.
Electricity Europe and Japan rely much more
heavily on nuclear energy for electricity
generation
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Potentials of U.S. Renewable Energy Sources
DRAFT
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Energy and the environment
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Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include
water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and ozone. Greenhouse gases that are not
naturally occurring include hydro-fluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a
variety of industrial processes.
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Modern CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere are
Increasing The current concentration is the
highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice
core data
Concentration now 385 ppm
Concentration prior to 1800 was 280 ppm
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Air Bubbles in Antarctic Ice Provide 800,000
Years of CO2 Concentrations
Nature, 15 May 2008, Cover Image The air
bubbles trapped in the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA
Dome C ice cores provide composite records of
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane
covering the past 650,000 years. Now the record
of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane
concentrations has been extended by two more
complete glacial cycles to 800,000 years ago. The
new data are from the lowest 200 metres of the
Dome C core. This ice core went down to just a
few metres above bedrock at a depth of 3,270
metres. The cover shows a strip of ice core
from another ice core in Antarctica (Berkner
Island) from a depth of 120 metres. Photo credit
Chris Gilbert, British Antarctic Survey.
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Correlation between CO2 Concentrations and
Temperature The current concentration is the
highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice
core data
a The 800,000-year records of atmospheric carbon
dioxide (red parts per million, p.p.m.) and
methane (green parts per billion, p.p.b.) from
the EPICA Dome C ice core together with a
temperature reconstruction (relative to the
average of the past millennium) based on the
deuteriumhydrogen ratio of the ice, reinforce
the tight coupling between greenhouse-gas
concentrations and climate observed in previous,
shorter records. The 100,000-year sawtooth
variability undergoes a change about 450,000
years ago, with the amplitude of variation,
especially in the carbon dioxide and temperature
records, greater since that point than it was
before. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
modern atmosphere are highly anomalous with
respect to natural greenhouse-gas variations
(present-day concentrations are around 380 p.p.m.
for carbon dioxide and 1,800 p.p.b. for
methane). b The carbon dioxide and methane
trends from the past 2,000 years. Ed Brook,
Nature 453, 291 (2008).
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Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations
for Various IPCC Scenarios CO2 concentrations are
predicted to increase by a factor of two to three.
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Climate change solutions Energy
solutions Coupled, complex problems
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U.S. Energy flow 2006 (Quads)
Electric Energy Storage
Fuel Switching
End-use Efficiency
Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation
CCS
Conservation
Fuel Switching
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Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
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Stabilisation Wedges The Pacala and Socolow
Challenge for CO2 Stabilization for Kids and
Lawmakers
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Stabilization WedgesTwo Emission Scenarios
Define the Stabilization Triangle
Emissions-doubling path
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The Wedge Stabilization Game Pieces
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Legislation in our future?
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Historical Comparison of Legislative Climate
Change Targets Considered by the U.S. Senate As
of June 4, 2008
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Long-range energy solutionsBasic research for a
decades-to-century U.S. energy strategy
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The 10 Basic Research Needs Workshops 10
workshops 5 years more than 1,500 participants
from academia, industry, and DOE labs

• Basic Research Needs to Assure a Secure Energy
  Future (BESAC)
• Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy
• Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization
• Basic Research Needs for Superconductivity
• Basic Research Needs for Solid State Lighting
• Basic Research Needs for Advanced Nuclear Energy
  Systems
• Basic Research Needs for the Clean and Efficient
  Combustion of 21st Century Transportation Fuels
• Basic Research Needs for Geosciences
  Facilitating 21st Century Energy Systems
• Basic Research Needs for Electrical Energy
  Storage
• Basic Research Needs for Catalysis for Energy
  Applications
• Basic Research Needs for Materials under Extreme
  Environments

www.science.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html
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Virutally all technologies have shown continuous
improvement,
Learning curve for solar cells. The module price
has been dropping 20 for every doubling of
module production (80 learning curve) since
1976. Extrapolation of this historical trend into
the future, plus a projected technological
revolution at an annual production level of
150,000 MWp, results in a prediction that
0.40/Wp would not be reached for another 2025
yr. Reaching 0.40/Wp sooner to accelerate
large-scale implementation of PV systems will
require an intense effort in basic science to
produce a technological revolution that leads to
new, as-yet-unknown technology. This revolution
requires a major reduction in the ratio of the PV
module cost per unit area to the cell efficiency.
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But, in general the improvements arent fast
enough or grand enough.
Learning curve for solar cells. The module price
has been dropping 20 for every doubling of
module production (80 learning curve) since
1976. Extrapolation of this historical trend into
the future, plus a projected technological
revolution at an annual production level of
150,000 MWp, results in a prediction that
0.40/Wp would not be reached for another 2025
yr. Reaching 0.40/Wp sooner to accelerate
large-scale implementation of PV systems will
require an intense effort in basic science to
produce a technological revolution that leads to
new, as-yet-unknown technology. This revolution
requires a major reduction in the ratio of the PV
module cost per unit area to the cell efficiency.
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Important Recurring Themes Disruptive
Technologies Require Control Control of
materials properties and functionalities through
electronic and atomic design

• New materials discovery, design, development, and
  fabrication, especially materials that perform
  well under extreme conditions
• Control of photon, electron, spin, phonon, and
  ion transport in materials
• Science at the nanoscale, especially
  low-dimensional systems
• Designer catalysts
• Designer interfaces and membranes
• Structure-function relationships
• Bio-materials and bio-interfaces, especially at
  the nanoscale
• New tools for spatial characterization, temporal
  characterization, and for theory/modeling/computat
  ion

www.science.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html
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Directing Matter and Energy Five Challenges for
Science and the Imagination

• Synthesize, atom by atom, new forms of matter
  with tailored propertiesImagine Create and
  manipulate natural and synthetic systems that
  will enable catalysts that are 100 specific and
  produce no unwanted byproducts, or materials that
  operate at the theoretical limits of strength and
  fracture resistance, or that respond to their
  environment and repair themselves like those in
  living systems
• Synthesize man-made nanoscale objects with
  capabilities rivaling those of living
  thingsImagine Master energy and information on
  the nanoscale, leading to the development of new
  metabolic and self-replicating pathways in living
  and non-living systems, self-repairing artificial
  photosynthetic machinery, precision measurement
  tools as in molecular rulers, and defect-tolerant
  electronic circuits
• Control the quantum behavior of electrons in
  materialsImagine Direct manipulation of the
  charge, spin and dynamics of electrons to control
  and imitate the behavior of physical, chemical
  and biological systems, such as digital memory
  and logic using a single electron spin, the
  pathways of chemical reactions and the strength
  of chemical bonds, and efficient conversion of
  the Suns energy into fuel through artificial
  photosynthesis.
• Control emergent properties that arise from the
  complex correlations of atomic and electronic
  constituentsImagine Orchestrate the behavior of
  billions of electrons and atoms to create new
  phenomena, like superconductivity at room
  temperature, or new states of matter, like
  quantum spin liquids, or new functionality
  combining contradictory properties like
  super-strong yet highly flexible polymers, or
  optically transparent yet highly electrically
  conducting glasses, or membranes that separate
  CO2 from atmospheric gases yet maintain high
  throughput.
• Control matter very far away from
  equilibriumImagine Discover the general
  principles describing and controlling systems far
  from equilibrium, enabling efficient and robust
  biologically-inspired molecular machines,
  long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel through
  adaptive earth chemistry, and achieving
  environmental sustainability by understanding and
  utilizing the chemistry and fluid dynamics of the
  atmosphere.

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The Multi-scale Challenge
Continuum
A quantitative connection has not been
established
s
Mesoscale
Microscale
ms
Dislocation theory
Plasticity of complex shapes
Atomic Scale
Aggregate grain response, poly-crystal plasticity
ms
Time scale
Engineering Plasticity
Dislocation Dynamics Collective behavior of
defects, single- crystal plasticity
ns
Molecular Dynamics
ps
mm
mm
nm
Length scale
Today Manually connect the length and time
scales Tomorrow Self-assembled algorithms will
automatically adjust length and time scales
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Another Multi-scale Challenge
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Can you imagine?

• A sustainable, carbon-neutral biofuels economy
  for transportation fuel that doesnt compete with
  food, feed, or export demands
• Direct conversion of CO2 and H2O sunlight to
  chemical fuels with no green plants needed
• Solar photovoltaics exceeding thermodynamic
  efficiency limits
• Electrical energy storage to support megawatts of
  intermittent, renewable electricity production
• Smart, integrated systems (electronics,
  buildings, production lines, transportation, the
  grid) that conserve energy and use it efficiently
  
• Materials that are self healing and self
  repairing for long-term use in hostile,
  corrosive, or high-radiation environments
• Bringing the power of the sun and the stars to
  Earth with fusion energy

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Energy Frontier Research CentersEngaging the
talents of the nations researchers for the broad
energy agenda
The DOE Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy
Sciences, announced the Energy Frontier Research
Centers (EFRCs) program. EFRC awards are 25
million/year for an initial 5-year period.
Universities, labs, and other institutions are
eligible to apply. See http//www.sc.doe.gov/bes/E
FRC.html.

• Energy Frontier Research Centers will pursue
  fundamental research that addresses both energy
  challenges and science grand challenges in areas
  such as
• ? Solar Energy Utilization ? Geosciences for
  Nuclear Waste and CO2 Storage
• ? Catalysis for Energy ? Advanced Nuclear Energy
  Systems
• ? Electrical Energy Storage ? Combustion of 21st
  Century Transportation Fuels
• ? Solid State Lighting ? Hydrogen Production,
  Storage, and Use
• ? Superconductivity ? Materials Under Extreme
  Environments
• Bioenergy and biofuels ? Other?

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END
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IPCC Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Modeling
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