Climate Change Perceptions in the U.S.

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Climate Change Perceptions in the U.S.

• CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN AREAS
• US-UK dialogue in a policy framework
• April 4, 2006
• By Vicki Arroyo
• Director of Policy Analysis
• Pew Center

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Pew Center on Global Climate Change

• Founded in May 1998
• Independent, non-profit, non-partisan
• Divided into five major program areas
• Scientific Studies/Analyses
• Domestic and International Strategies
• Outreach Activities
• Business
• States
• Solutions
• Communications

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41 BELC Companies

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Our Goal

• The passage of national legislation
  in the U.S. that
  will reduce GHG emissions work toward an
  international framework for action to which all
  major emitting countries can subscribe.
  

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Public Opinion on Global Warming
ABC News/Washington Post Poll (6/15/2005) Mirrori
ng the political debate about government policy,
there also are deep partisan and ideological
divides on global warming. Republicans are less
likely than Democrats and Independents to think
its underway, to see human activities as a
cause, to think theyll see the impact, or to
favor urgent action to address it.
Dem Ind Rep Convinced its
underway 69 64 42 Human activity a
significant cause 68 64 54 Threat in your
lifetime 41 40 19 Urgent government action
needed 47 44 24 Threat to future
generations 90 82 65
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Public Opinion on Kyoto Protocol
Gallop Poll (11/8/2005) U.S. Canada Britain Is
global warming already happening? Yes 54 71 65 U
nderstanding of global warming Very
well 16 21 16 Fairly well 54 52 59 Not
well 30 27 25 Approve/disapprove of U.S.
non-participation in Kyoto Approve 20 7 4 Disapp
rove 21 56 66 Not sure 59 37 30 Should your
government abide by Kyoto? Yes 42 73 81 No 23 17
5 No opinion 35 5 14
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Public Opinion on Kyoto (cont.)
If the leaders of other major developed countries
are willing to act to limit the greenhouse gases
that cause climate change, should President Bush
be willing to act to limit such gases in the
US? (07/5/2005)
The PIPA/Knowledge Networks Poll
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Public Opinion on Kyoto (cont.)
Curiously, nearly half of Americans (43) assume
incorrectly that President Bush favors US
participation in the Kyoto Treaty and another 14
are not sure. Only 43 are aware that he opposes
US participation. This perception has been
largely consistent since PIPA first asked this
question in November 2002. Interestingly,
Democrats are more correct in their perception of
Bushs position (54 assume he opposes it) than
are Republicans (36 assume he opposes
it). (07/5/2005)
The PIPA/Knowledge Networks Poll
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Public OpinionChanging?
ORCAS/Harris Interactive Poll (9/23-26/2005) Do
you believe you will see the effects of global
climate change in your lifetime? Yes 61 No 31
Dont know/refused 8 In what time frame do you
think you will see the effects of global climate
change? 30 years from today 5 20 years from
today 9 10 years from today 12 We are already
seeing the effects 72 Dont know/refused 3
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Recent Opinion (cont.)
ABC NEWS/STANFORD UNIVERSITY/TIME (3/2006) If
nothing is done to reduce global warming in the
future, how serious a problem will it be for the
U.S./world? Very serious 49/57 Somewhat
serious 34/28 Not so serious 10/8 Not at
all 6/5 No opinion 2/2 Which would you rather
see the federal government do require companies
and individuals to do things to reduce global
warming, offer tax cuts to encourage these
things, or do nothing to influence these
things? Require 52 Encourage 38 Do
nothing 8 No opinion 2
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Recent Opinion
ABC NEWS/STANFORD UNIVERSITY/TIME
(3/2006)
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Skeptics

• The Earth currently does seem to be in a warming
  period, though how warm and for how long no one
  knows. In particular, no one knows whether this
  is unusual or merely something that happens
  periodically for natural reasons.
• The Wall Street Journal,
• June 21, 2005

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Fair Balanced

• The professional canon of journalistic
  fairness requires reporters who write about a
  controversy to present competing points of view
• But this canon causes problems when it is
  applied to issues of science. It seems to demand
  that journalists present competing points of
  views on a scientific question as though they had
  equal scientific weight, when actually they do
  not.
• Ross Gelbspan, The Heat Is On, 1998

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Partisan Divide
Which statement comes closest to your view about
global warming it probably is happening, it
probably is not happening, or I dont know if it
is happening?
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Partisan Divide (cont.)
If global warming is happening, do you think it
is due more to the normal cycles in the Earths
environment, or more to human activity such as
burning fossil fuels?
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Yet, Agreement on Opportunities
Do you think it is possible or not possible to
reduce the effects of global warming?

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Party Agreement (cont.)
Do you think it is possible or not possible to
reduce the overall amount of greenhouse gases in
the United States that are released by the
burning of fossil fuels?
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Increased Media Attention
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New Constituencies

• From Climate Change An Evangelical Call to
  Action
• (released 2/2006)
• Claim 1 Human-Induced Climate Change is Real
• Claim 2 The Consequences of Climate Change Will
  Be Significant, and Will Hit the Poor the Hardest
• Claim 3 Christian Moral Convictions Demand Our
  Response to the Climate Change Problem
• Claim 4 The need to act now is urgent.
  Governments, businesses, churches, and
  individuals all have a role to play in addressing
  climate changestarting now.

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Recent Scientific Developments

• Polar ice
• Arctic sea ice being lost at an unprecedented
  rate, reaching a record low area during summer
  2005.
• Greenland losing ice even more rapidly than
  realized, doubling estimated rate of ice loss
  from Greenland and contribution to rate of global
  sea level rise.
• Antarctica Western Antarctica losing ice
  rapidly. East Antarctica was thought be gaining
  ice, but now is thought to be just in
  balancefuture warming could quickly shift it to
  net ice loss.
• Mountain glaciers
• Continuing worldwide loss, at an accelerating
  rate

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Scientific Developments (cont.)

• Species changes
• Many different plants and animal species (130 in
  one study) responded to earlier spring
  temperatures between 1970 and 2000. Changes well
  correlated with GHG-driven climate change but not
  with natural variability alone.
• Widespread mass amphibian extinctions in the
  tropics linked to the timing of climate change
  events.
• Hurricanes
• Hurricanes are becoming more intense worldwide.
  All ocean basins where tropical cyclones develop
  exhibiting this change.

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Current U.S. Climate Policy

• Bush Policy
• Congressional Activity
• Regional and State Solutions
• Business Activities

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Bush Climate Policy

• No Kyoto
• Research
• GHG Intensity Target
• Voluntary reporting
• Long-term technology development

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Congressional Activity

• McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship and
  Innovation Act
• 2 Senate votes October 2003, 43-55 June 2005,
  38-60
• Bingaman Resolution, Sense of the Senate
• Congress should enact a national program of
  mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on
  emissions of GHGs that slow, stop, and reverse
  the growth of such emissions
• Domenici-Bingaman hearings, design elements paper
  
• Feinstein Strong Economy and Climate Protection
  Act
• Lugar-Biden Resolution
• House bills
• Gilchrest-Olver Climate Stewardship Act
• Udall-Petri Keep America Competitive Global
  Warming Policy Act

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State Renewable Portfolio Standards
DE 10 by 2019
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State GHG Reporting Registries
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Regional Initiatives



West Coast Governors Initiative




NEG-ECP
Powering the Plains

Western Governors Association
RGGI


Southwest Climate Change Initiative

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Regional, State and Local Action

• RGGI 7 mid-Atlantic and northeastern states have
  developed a model rule for a regional
  cap-and-trade system for CO2 emissions from power
  plants
• California
• Targets and timetables 2000 levels by 2010, 1990
  levels by 2020, 80 below current emissions by
  2050
• Governors Climate Action Team
• Vehicle GHG standards
• CPUC emissions cap
• Energy Commission Integrated Energy Policy Report
  (IEPR) CPUC carbon adder
• U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement 212
  cities in 38 states
• Strive to meet or exceed Kyoto Protocol target

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Business Activities

• General Electric ecomagination
• Market-shaping strategies for climate-friendly
  products.
• Committed to improve its energy efficiency 30
  and cut its worldwide GHG emissions by 1 by 2012
  
• Announced in 2005 that it would double its yearly
  investment in cleaner technologies from 700
  million in 2004 to 1.5 billion in 2010.
• Wal-Mart
• Ambitious GHG reduction goal/outreach
• IBM
• 1990-2002, savings of 12.8 billion kWh
  electricityavoiding 7.8 million tons of CO2 and
  saving 729 million
• Financial services (JP Morgan and Goldman)
• Call for policy action

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Agenda for Climate Action

• 15 recommendations in 6 key areas
• Science and technology
• Emissions markets
• Sectoral reductions
• Energy supply and use
• Adaptation
• International engagement
• Released February 8, 2006 at National Press Club
• 6 companies spoke on need for federal policy
• Briefings for Administration, Hill, key sectors

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Business Engagement in Policy

• Long-term certainty would help us all make smart
  decisionsWe believe that the government can
  provide leadership by clarifying policy, by
  committing to market mechanisms and by
  promoting diverse energy sources Jeff Immelt,
  CEO, GE
• The changes needed in our energy infrastructure
  to meet future demand and respond to climate
  change will not happen by chance - a clear, long
  term framework will give business the necessary
  incentive and confidence to invest further. -
  John D. Hofmeister, President, Shell Oil Co.
• We accept that the science of global warming is
  overwhelming.  We accept that limitations on
  greenhouse gases emissions will prove necessary. 
  Until those limitations are adopted, we believe
  that business should take voluntary action to
  begin the transition to a lower carbon future."
  John Rowe, CEO, Exelon

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For More Information

• www.pewclimate.org