Workforce Preparation Challenges Facing Hawaii

1
AN INCONVENIENT REALITY

• Workforce Preparation Challenges Facing Hawaii
• October 5, 2007

2
Hawaiis Changing Economy

• Major shifts in the world and U.S. economies have
  had a substantial impact in Hawaii.
• These shifts have had a dramatic affect on the
  type of jobs, the level of personal income, and
  the quality of life.

3
Hawaii Employment by Industry - 1962
State government
County government
3
6
Federal civilian
Agriculture
10
5
Construction
6
Federal military
Manufacturing
23
10
Transportation
Other services
4
6
Communication
Business services
1
1
Utilities
Health services
1
2
Wholesale
Hotel services
Retail
5
Finance
2
12
Real estate
Source P. Brewbaker, BOH, Aug. 02
Insurance
2
2
1
4
Hawaii Employment by Industry - 2006
5
We Have Developing Opportunities, Will We Have
the Workforce?
6
The Worker Supply Gap

• An Insufficient Number of Qualified Workers

7
We Need to Fill 28,000 Jobs Annually
Source EMSI June 2007
8
Most Require Education Beyond HS
Source EMSI June 2007
9
Hawaiis Growing Innovation Sector
STEM Jobs Comprise nearly 10 of the Total Jobs
in the State
Source EMSI June 2007
10
HS Graduates Supply Less Than 1/2 of the 28,000
Annual Jobs to Fill
Source WICHE High School Graduate Projections
11
We Need to be Ready to Replace Skilled People in
Critical Jobs
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5PUMS
Files
12
Homes on OahuBeyond Affordable
We can no longer depend on an imported workforce.
591,300
369,400
356,100
128,400
Price of an affordable home based on states
median household income, average mortgage rate,
and a 30-year mortgage with 20 down. Projected

Source The Honolulu Advertiser, University of
Hawaii economist Carl Bonham
13
We are Exporting the Experienced Core of Our
WorkforceHawaii Net Migration by Degree Level
and Age Group
22- to 29-Year-Olds
30- to 64-Year-Olds
Less than High School High School Some
College Associate Bachelors Graduate/Professional
Total
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5
Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files
14
We Can Expect Continued Difficulty in Filling Job
Vacancies Well Into the FutureProjected Change
in Population by Age Group, 2000 to 2020
Age lt15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65
Source U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections
15
Unemployment RatesHawaii and U.S., 1995-2006
Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
We Need to Increase the Rate of Participation in
the WorkforcePercent of Civilian Population
Participating in the Workforce, 2004
Source U.S. Census Bureau
17
Percent of Population Age 16 and Older
Participating in the Workforce, 2004
Hawaii 64.7 Source U.S. Census Bureau
18
An Individuals Level of Education is Directly
Related to Their Ability to Participate in the
WorkforceHawaii Civilians Age 25-64 in the
Workforce by Education Attainment, 2005
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File
19
The Worker Preparation Gap

• An Insufficient Number of People with Needed
  Skills

20
A Lack of Investment Has Resulted in Shortages in
Critical FieldsNumber of 2-Year Degrees and
Certificates in Health Sciences Awarded (2003)
Per 100 HS Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2000
Source NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03 WICHE
High School Graduates, 2000
21
Number of 4-Year Degrees in Health Sciences
Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six
Years Earlier, 2000
Source NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03 WICHE
High School Graduates 1997
22
Number of 4-Year Degrees Awarded (2003) Per 100
High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000
Source NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03 WICHE
High School Graduates, 1997
23
As Experienced Workers Leave the Workforce, We
Need to Get More Incumbent Workers to Enroll in
Further EducationPart-Time Undergraduate
Enrollment as a of Population Age 25-44, 2000
5.2
Source NCES-IPEDS, U.S. Census Bureau
24
Education Pipeline Performance

• An Insufficient Number of Individuals Prepared
  for Further Education or Training

25
Key Transition Points in the Education to Work
Pipeline

• Complete High School
• Enter College
• Finish College
• Enter the Workplace

26
Student Pipeline2004
Of 100 9th Graders, How Many
Source NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2004
Residence and Migration Survey, NCEC IPEDS 2004
Fall Enrollment Survey and Graduation Rate Survey
27
UH Community Colleges Entering Student
Placement
28
HAWAII
29
Hawaiis underperformance in educating its young
population could limit the states access to a
competitive workforce and weaken its economy over
time. As the well-educated baby boomer generation
begins to retire, the young population that will
replace it does not appear prepared educationally
to maintain or enhance the states position in a
global economy. Hawaii continues to fall behind
in graduating 9th graders from high school within
four years and enrolling them in college by age
19and these rates have dropped by double digits
since the early 1990s.
30
Source The National Center for Public Policy and
Higher Education
31
Source The National Center for Public Policy and
Higher Education
32

• Eighth graders in Hawaii perform very poorly on
  national assessments in math, science, reading,
  and writing, indicating that they are not well
  prepared to succeed in challenging high school
  courses. Hawaii is among the lowest-performing
  states in science and reading.
• Low-income 8th graders perform very poorly on
  national assessments in math.

33
To Sum Up

• We are a top state when we measure rate of HS
  graduation.
• We are far behind, however, when we look at
  actual student performance in skills critical to
  success in post-secondary education and the new
  jobs in our economy.
• Despite improvement, Hawaii lags many other
  states in preparing students to succeed in
  college.

34
There are consequences.
35

• Hawaii is almost 30 percentage points below the
  national benchmark in workforce preparation as
  reflected in professional licensure examinations.
  
• Hawaii also ranks more than 35 percentage points
  below the national benchmark in preparing
  students for graduate study.
• Hawaii is about 15 below the national benchmark
  with respect to pass rates on the states teacher
  examinations.

36

• HAWAII CHALLENGE Raise Achievement and Close
  Gaps

Hawaii Education Summit August, 2007


37
Lets take a closer look at our 15 year olds.
38
2003 U.S. Ranked 24th out of 29 OECD Countries
in Mathematics
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
39
Problems are not limited to our high-poverty and
high-minority schools . . .
40
U.S. Ranks Low in the Percent of Students in the
Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
41
U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the
Math Achievement of the Highest-Performing
Students
Students at the 95th Percentile
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
42
U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29OECD Countries in the
Math Achievement of High-SES Students
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
43
Problems not limited to math, either.
44
PISA 2003 Problem-Solving, US Ranks 24th Out of
29 OECD Countries
Source NCES, 2005, International Outcomes of
Learning in Mathematics, Literacy and Problem
Solving 2003 PISA Results. NCES 2005-003
45
More than half of our 15 year olds at
problem-solving level 1 or below.
Source OECD Problem Solving for Tomorrows
World. 2004
46
Where is Hawaiiin All of This?
47
Hawaii State Math Results Grade 4, 2007
48
Hawaii State Math Results Grade 8, 2007
49
Hawaii 10th Grade Math Students Well Below
50
Loss at the Top Math
51
Hawaii Students on National Assessments?
52
Hawaii NAEP 8th Grade Math 2005
53
Hawaii NAEP 8th Grade Math 2005
54
8th Grade Math NAEPFewer Students Below Basic,
More Proficient
55
Relative to Other States?
56
NAEP 2005 Grade 8 Math, Overall Scale Scores
Source National Center for Education
Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer,
http//nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde
57
NAEP 2005 Grade 8 Math, Low-Income Scale Scores
Source National Center for Education
Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer,
http//nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde
58
Education Pipeline in Hawaii
Note Enrollment data for 2- and 4- year
colleges do not sum to 100 because each includes
large number of students who self-identify as
other, 13 in 2-year colleges and 38 in 4-year
colleges.
59
Hawaii Postsecondary vs. Leading States
60
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and
Higher) by Age Group
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
60
61
Differences in College Attainment (Assoc. and
Higher) by Age GroupHawaii, U.S. and Leading
OECD Countries, 2004
Source OECD, Education at a Glance 2005
62
THE BOTTOM LINE WE NEED BETTER OUTCOMES

• We are falling behind other states in the U.S.
  and competitors in the Pacific region in the
  education of our future workforce.

63
David Heenan Flight Capital (2005)

• Know Thy Competition
• Adapt or Die
• Spur Immigration Reform
• Dust off the Welcome Mat
• Target the Best Minds
• Encourage Dual Loyalties

• Reform Really Reform Public Education
• Nourish the Halls of Ivy
• Celebrate Science and Technology
• Expand the Workforce
• Reconsider National Service
• Act Now

64
Confronting the Future

• We won't lose by taking bold action. But we will
  probably be hurt badly if we're too slow to
  prevent the worst-case scenario.
• Hawai'i needs no outside permission. The next
  generation will thank us. Let's get on with it.
• Mike Fitzgerald, President and CEO of Enterprise
  Honolulu

(Honolulu Advertiser, July 17, 2007)
65
AN INCONVENIENT REALITY

• For Further Information
• Contact Michael Rota
• mrota_at_hawaii.edu