Title: Desertification in the Mediterranean Region: A Security Issue
1Sergio Tirado Herrero Department of Economic
Theory and Economic History. Faculty of Economics
and Management. University of Alcala.
THE ROLE OF DESERTIFICATION IN DEEPENING THE
HISTORICAL CONFLICT BETWEEN FARMERS AND HERDERS
IN THE ARID ENVIRONMENTS OF NORTHERN AFRICA
2The concept of environmental conflict
- Types of resource scarcity relevant for conflicts
analysis (Libiszewsky, 1992) - Physical scarcity finite amount of available
resource - Geopolitical scarcity uneven geographical
distribution - Socio-economic scarcity unequal distributon of
purchasing power and property rights - ENVIRONMENTAL scarcity resources traditionally
considered abundant becoming scarce because of
the failure to adopt sustainable management
options. - KEY RESOURCES renewable, extensive, patchy,
common property - resources such as as WATER and SOIL FERTILITY
(Blench, 2003).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICT The environmental
variables do not directly cause the conflict per
se but instead make more salient the variables
that can precipitate conflict (Libiszewski,
1992).
3SAHEL
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGES UNDERDEVELOPMENT
ECOLOGY OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS
HISTORY
FARMING PASTORALISM
desertification
CONFLICT
CO-OPERATION
4Ecology of arid environments
- Ecosystems in arid environments (FAO, 1989)
- Low water availability due to irregularity in
spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and
high temperatures. - Soil is shallow, easily erodable and not very
productive. - Vegetation adapted to fluctuations in physical
conditions (ephemeral annuals, succulent
perennials, non-succulent perennials, xerophytic) - Classical ecological equilibrium theory is unable
to capture the uncertainty and variability in
arid ecosystems (Niamir-Fuller, 2001) - concepts as carrying capacity and stocking rate
ineffective in predicting ecosystem productivity - the system can be characterized as multiple
equilibrium, dynamic equilibrium or
non-equilibrium
Framework
5The Sudano-Sahelian band
Map
- SAHEL band between the Sahara desert and the
tropical belt of North-Equatorial Africa (north
boundary defined by 100-150 mm. isohyet) covered
with semi-desert grassland, thorn shrub and
wooded grassland dominated by Acacia spp.
(LeHouerou, 1989 Wetzel Rath, 2002). - Perhaps the most dramatic example of climatic
variability in the world (Hulme, 2001)
rainfall as limiting factor - Evolution of the land-use system of Sudan-Sahel
(Puigdefábregas, 1995) - 1940-1960 higher rainfall regime leading to
occupation of marginal areas traditionally
devoted to nomadic pastoralism by
agropastoralists moving northwards from more
fertile, densely inhabited southern areas
(Balling, 1993). - 1968 1973 severe drought and environmental
crisis leading to famine and humanitarian crisis
(250,000 deaths according to UNCOD, 1977) - 1968 onwards declining rainfall records
(Warren-Khogali, 1991) in spite of 1994
optimistic records (IPCC,2001). Recently migrated
population trapped because of occupation of their
former land. - 1984 the driest year on record in many
Sudano-Sahelian countries, affecting specially
the eastern part of the region (Warren-Khogali,
1991)
Rainfall in Sahel
Framework
6Desertification
- There is no concluding evidence on Sahels
desertification - Growing body of scientific knowledge showing that
deserts have expanded and contracted over
geological, even recent, time, without any
significant interference from people (Warren and
Batterbury, 2004) - No extensive land degradation, desertification,
or reduction in plant productivity occurred in
Central and West Sahel between 1980-1995,
according to a study based on satellite image
analysis (Nicholson et al., 1998)
CLIMATE CHANGE IN SAHEL Ambiguity in
predictions in the long-term estimations (IPCC,
2001)
Framework
7Socio-economic changes
- CAUSES
- Fast population growth (Wezel Rath, 2002
Pieri, 1993) the population of seven
Sudano-Sahelian countries will have increased
fivefold from precolonial levels in 21st century. - Rapid urbanization in 1920 1 of the population
lived in cities, today more than 30 (Pieri,
1993). - Economic globalization dependence on
fluctuations of global demand of agricultural
products - CONSEQUENCES increasing pressure on resources
with influence on desertification process (Wezel
Rath, 2002) - expansion of cultivated land and shortening of
fallow periods - intensification of livestock production since
1950 (LeHouerou, 1996) - land clearing and wood cutting increasing for
energetic and agricultural purposes
Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
Framework
8Historical factors
- REMOTE HISTORY
- Ethnic diversity identity of ethnic groups
linked to resource-use systems (e.g. Dinka
farmers and Nuer herders in Sudan Peule or
Felbe herders and Wolof farmers in Nigeria)
(Warren Khogali, 1991) - Religious heterogeneity Sudano-Sahelian band as
a border between different religious beliefs
(Islam in the North vs. traditional African cults
and Christians in the South). - RECENT HISTORY (process of colonization and
decolonization) - modification of existing net of power
relationships (hierarchy) amongst different
ethnic groups (e.g. Muslim Hasa-Fulani herders
favoured by the colonial government in Nigeria)
(Blench, 2001) - disappearance of the traditional community-based
system of settling disputes (Banzhaf, 2000, for
Burkina Faso)
Framework
9The relationship between farmers and herders in
the Sahel
- COMPLEMENTARITY OF LAND USE-SYSTEMS
- Cattle-raising appeared as complementary activity
to agriculture (Blench, 2001) milk, meat,
blood, leather and manure exchanged for
agricultural products (cereals), rights to graze
or labour. - In the Sahel, where the more palatable millets
and sorghums predominate, the exchange of manure
for stove (and increasingly cash) is major part
of pastoralists annual grazing strategies in
most regions (Blench, 2003) - CONFLICT BETWEEN LAND-USE SYSTEMS
- Agropastoral and nomadic pastoral activities
overlapping land-use activities sedentary
agriculture demanding the most fertile land and
locations close to water points. Non-defined
border between activities - Currently encroachment of agricultural onto
grazing land as a source of conflict in the
Sahel, (Warren Khogali, 1991) - An ancient conflict Genesis (Middle East) and
Maharabata (India)
Framework
10Population growth in the Sahel
Source Wezel Rath, 2002
SE changes
Framework
11Agriculture and population in the Sahel
Source Wezel Rath, 2002
SE changes
Framework
12Changes in livestock population in Sudan in 20th
century
Source Wickens, 1997
SE changes
Framework
13Rainfall record in the Sahel along the 20th
century
Source IPCC, 2001
Sahel
Framework
14LAND COVER MAP OF AFRICA (derived from AVHRR
data) Sahel Savannah, N
hemisphere Horn of Africa lowlands
Transition woodland
Source Global Vegetation Monitoring Unit (GVMU)
Sahel
Framework
15Featuring conflicts between farmers and herders
in arid environments
- Competition for water and soil fertility in a
limiting ecosystem key variables under threat by
desertification. - Conflict as part of a wider framework of
relationships based on cooperation in humid
periods and on confrontation in dry periods as a
response to environmental variability. - Usually conflict as violent reaction of
pastoralists being invaded their grazing areas by
expanding agriculture. - Low-intensity, long-lasting and happening in
marginal regions. - Level of violence reached dependant on the
technical development of warfare available for
confronting parties evidence of lowering prices
of small arms (ACTS, 2003) - Sometimes wide, cruent conflicts in Africa have
their roots in division between farmers and
herders along ecological history, although now
they cannot be explained strictly in terms of
competition for resources
Framework
16Case study NIGERIA
- Several steps leading to an open, violent
conflict (Blench, 2001 UN Office for
Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2002) - Muslim Hasa-Fulani herders favoured by colonial
government got control of local judicial system
in colonial period - Independence reversal of previous bias, thus
farmers compensated for their historical
mistreatment by local justice - September 2001 at least 1,000 people killed in a
week of fighting between mainly Christian locals
and Hasa-Fulani settlers from further north. Some
of the attacks were blamed on Fulani herdsmen,
but the herdsmen accused the local people of
giving them ultimatum to leave their traditional
grazing areas. - Other cases Burkina Faso (Banzhaf, 2002), Sudan
(IUCN, 2002 Goldsmith et al., 2002 Adams,
1982), Senegal (Rochette 1989 Touré 1990) Niger
(Thebaud Batterbury, 2001 McIntosh, 1993)
Framework
17Final remarks
- IS CONFLICT INCREASING?
- It is likely that resource conflicts is more
prevalent than earlier in the century There
are more people competing for fewer resources and
there are more perceived resource arenas
Besides, we should bear in mind the availability
of powerful weaponry (Blench, 2003) - Desertification exacerbates poverty and
political instability. It contributes
significantly to water scarcity, famine, the
internal displacement of people, migration, and
social breakdown Evidence is mounting that
there is often a strong correlation between civil
strife and conflict on the one hand and
environmental factors such as desertification on
the other (Convention to Combat Desertification,
2003) - A vulnerability assessment for 19992000
estimated that 3.8 million people were moderately
food insecure in a high-rainfall year in the
Sahel (USAID, 2000).
Framework
18Keep the discussion on