Earthquakes and Risk Management

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Earthquakes and Risk Management???????

• David L. Olson
• James H.K. Stuart Chancellors Distinguished
  Chair
• University of Nebraska
• Desheng Wu
• University of Reykjavik, University of Toronto

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2008 Sichuan Earthquake????

• 8.0 magnitude
• Over 87 thousand deaths
• Felt in Beijing Shanghai
• Over 26 thousand aftershocks
• Heavy damage to infrastructure
• Quake lakes
• Massive economic loss

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Call for papers ????!??????SCI??????

• Journal of Human and Ecological Risk Assessment
  (HERA )
• Special Issue on Risk Management Views from
  Sichuan Earthquake ????0.912
• Guest editor Desheng Dash Wu and David Olson
• Submission Deadline December 30, 2008????
  2008??
• Camera-ready version September 30,
  2009????2009??

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2008 International Conference on Risk Management
Engineering Management
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Earthquakes are Worldwide Problem????????

• 5 July 1201 Eastern Mediterranean
• 1.1 million deaths
• Syria to Upper Egypt
• 1755 Lisbon, Portugal
• Over 60 thousand deaths
• Triggered tsunamis ????
• Led to Voltaires view A just God wouldnt let
  this happen ??????? ?????????????
• May 1970 Peru
• Over 50 thousand deaths, 7.9 magnitude
• 23 December 1972 Managua, Nicaragua
• 5 to 20 thousand deaths
• Government mishandling cited as leading to
  Sandinista revolution
• 2007 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant
• Radioactive water leak into ocean

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Chinese Earthquakes
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Chinese Red Cross Red Crescent Report
(RCSC)????????????

• Sichuan provincial government 12 Aug 2008
• All displaced people in transitional housing
• 4.5 million lost homes
• 978,000 urban households in transitional housing
• 3,400 resettlement areas built
• 3.5 million rural families rebuilt housing
  themselves, with government subsidies
• 20,000 rural permanent homes completed
• 175,000 under construction

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RCSC Food Basic Non-food Items??????????????

• Objective 1 (0-3 months)
• Ensure up to 100,000 families receive food,
  water, sanitation
• Objective 2 (1-12 months)
• Ensure up to 100,000 families receive food
  enabling move to transitional shelter
• Progress
• 150,000 tents
• gt120,000 quilts
• 250,000 clothing items
• 1.7 million mosquito nets
• 6,480 tons of food

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RCSC Shelter??

• Objective 1 (0-3 months)
• Ensure 100,000 families receive emergency shelter
• Objective 2 (1-12 months)
• Provide technical support for 1,000 health
  centers, 1,500 schools
• Objective 3 (3-36 months)
• Provide earthquake-resistant houses for 2,000
  rural families
• Progress
• 53 planes chartered to deliver tents from Iran,
  elsewhere
• 102,210 international tents received by end of
  July

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RCSC Health??

• Objective 1 (0-3 months)
• Deploy medical, first aid, psychological support
  teams
• Objective 2 (1-12 months)
• Provide technical assistance training health
  clinics
• Objective 3 (3-36 months)
• Provide technical assistance training
  preparedness service
• Progress
• 10 medical teams deployed by end of May

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RCSC Water, Sanitation, Hygiene?,????,??

• Objective 1 (0-3 months)
• Provide drinking water, sanitation, hygiene
  promotion
• Objective 2 (1-12 months)
• Provide technical assistance training service
  Emergency Response Units
• Objective 3 (3-36 months)
• Provide technical assistance training water
  sanitation emergencies, provide facilities
• Progress
• 2 M15 water emergency response units (Austria,
  Spain) served 30,000
• 1.3 million Water purification tablets (PRC)
• 1,000 household purification sets
• others

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RSCS Rural Livelihood????

• Objective 1 (0-3 months)
• Training technical advice on livelihood
  substitution
• Cash voucher transfer programming
• Objective 2 (3-36 months)
• Provide livelihoods to 2,000 families in
  permanent shelter program
• Progress
• Awaiting area stabilization

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Approaches to Earthquake Risk Management?????????
?

• US ??
• Assess risk
• Standards
• Software
• Identify alternative risk mitigation strategies
• Engineering alternatives
• Management practices
• Financial mechanisms
• Evaluate life-cycle economic economics of
  alternatives
• Software

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Phases??????????,????,????

• PREDICTION
• Scientific endeavor
• Understand, predict
• Earthquakes are rare events
• Animal behavior Unusual cloud patterns
• Statistical analysis
• PLANNING
• Standards
• Software
• Identify alternative risk mitigation
• CONTROL
• Emergency reaction
• POST-EARTHQUAKE RESPONSE (????)
• WHAT TO DO AFTER DISASTER OCCURS
• REDUCE ADDITIONAL SYSTEM FAILURE BY HUMANS

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Europe ??

• NaTech natural disaster-triggered events
• Regulations
• Prevention
• Limiting consequences
• Industrial facilities dealing with dangerous
  substances
• required to have major-accident prevention
  policies
• Emergency plans to deal with accidental chemical
  release
• Hazard assessments
• Process safety analysis
• Mitigation measure evaluation

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Bulgaria????

• Building codes
• Require earthquake resistant design
• Hazardous material measures
• Hazard assessment
• Scenarios of domino effects Impacts on
  communities

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France

• Natural disaster risk prevention
• Hazard identification
• Risk assessment
• Monitoring Warning programs
• Prevention Mitigation policies
• Regulations
• Zoning
• Disaster preparedness
• Emergency response

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Germany

• Integrated system of prevention warning systems
• Disaster triggers post-evaluation
• Update regulations
• Emergency response plans required
• With hazard maps

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Italy

• Department of Civil Protection
• Nationwide study evaluating civil protection
  plans
• Scenarios of direct, indirect effects on
• Human health
• Food chain
• Pollution

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Portugal

• Regulation for Security for Structures
• In-depth study assessing seismic vulnerability
• 1997
• Emergency contingency plan
• GIS-based simulator of seismic scenarios
• Information on geophysical, geological, housing,
  structural, population data by region

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Sweden

• All-hazards approach
• Municipalities required to
• Identify local risks
• Generate preventive measures
• Emergency response plans
• National agencies
• Provide supervision
• Tools
• Guidance
• Support

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Risk Management Process??????

• Identification
• Potential losses quantified for every significant
  risk source
• Earthquake timing, magnitude, location
• Loss modeling tools
• Risk maps
• Analyses of risk impact and likelihood
• Establish Acceptable Level of Loss
• Risk Control
• Building codes
• Emergency management agencies
• Emergency food, water deployment of
  construction equipment
• Risk Transfer (for firms, not governments)
• Insurance
• Catastrophe bonds

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What is ERM???(??)????

• Enterprise risk management
• Formerly exclusively finance
• Hedging, insurance
• Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (2004)
• Enron, WorldCom
• Manage all risks facing an organization
• Finance
• Accounting
• Information systems, supply chains, project
  management
• Emergency management

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Intelligence Cycles

• Identification of what is not known
• Collection
• Gather information related to what is not known
• Production
• Answer management questions
• Dissemination
• Get answers to the right people

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Earthquake Risk Management Tools????????

• FINANCIAL ????
• Insurance pools
• Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ????
• Geographic information systems (GIS)
• Earth science data
• Socioeconomic information by locality
• Communications
• Telephones, whiteboards, the Internet
• Database systems, Data mining tools
• Models in Decision Support Systems

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Risk Management in Post-Earthquake Construction
??????????

• Can use information technology (earthquake
  disaster data systems) ????,?????????
• ERM ??????
• Need to research value of prediction markets ????
• Recognition-primed decision approach a way to
  prepare ????????

2008 International Conference on Risk Management
Engineering Management
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Disaster Information Management Systems????????

• Collect relevant data
• REQUIREMENTS
• Recognize handle diverse disaster data sources
• Geographical, registry information, aid
  information
• Handle disparate disaster data formats
• E-mails, documents, pictures, movies, audio
• Some data gathered prior to disaster
• Hazard information
• Victim locators
• Registries of families, medical needs

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Emergency Management Support Systems
(EMSS)????????

• Decision Support Systems focusing on emergency
  management
• US National Incident Management System
• US National Disaster Medical System
• Information processing
• Response planning
• Inter-agency coordination
• Europe Global Emergency Management Information
  Network Initiative
• Earthquake prediction (Aleskerov et al., 2005)

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Earthquake Response Systems??????

• Damage assessment of structures
• POST-EARTHQUAKE RESPONSE
• dont compound disaster
• Lessons of post-earthquake recovery
• Rehabilitation recovery
• Public policy
• Land use options
• Urban planning design

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Emergencies ??

• Surprises
• Asteroid strikes
• Human-induced
• Repetitive
• Hurricanes ??
• Earthquakes (tsunamis ??)
• Repetitive emergencies have data
• RISK some predictability
• Can prepare

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Emergency Management Problem??????

• Tools exist to gather data
• Data mining tools might be able to make some
  sense of this data
• HARD TO HAVE RIGHT DATA AT RIGHT PLACE AT RIGHT
  TIME
• Need filters to focus on crucial data

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Recognition Primed Decision RPD????????

• Klein, G.A. A recognition-primed decision (RPD)
  model of rapid decision making 1993
• people use experience to avoid some of the
  limitations of analytical strategies
• No time for classical rational decision making
• situational assessment
• Generate a plausible course of action
• mental simulation
• Quickly evaluate
• describes how decision making is usually carried
  out in real settings

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Observed behavior

• Emergency situations
• Firefighting, critical care nursing
• act and react based on prior experience
• generate, monitor, and modify plans as needed
• No evidence of extensive option generation
• No way to optimize
• need workable, timely, cost effective solutions

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Prediction Markets ??????

• Participants can buy shares in whatever they
  think will happen
• Pooled market prices
• Real money provides incentives
• USES
• University of Iowa
• US presidential elections
• Impressive accuracy
• Gains the knowledge of many participants
  expressed in bids
• Has been proposed for earthquake prediction
  planning

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China Natural Disasters

• Atmospheric Aquatic ???????
• Flood, drought, typhoon, tsunami, wind, snow, ice
• Geological Seismic ??????
• Earthquake, cave-ins, landslides??,
  desertification ???
• Biological ??????
• Pest ??, rodents ??
• Fire ??
• Forests, grasslands

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Major Disaster Reduction Actions????????

• 1989 Inter-agency coordination body created
• China National Commission for the International
  Decade on Natural Disaster Reduction
• 2000 Renamed China Commission for the
  International Disaster Reduction
• Composed of 30 ministries departments
• Study formulate principles, policies plans
• Coordinate major disaster activities
• Guide local governments
• Promote international exchange cooperation

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Laws Regulations

• Over 30
• Law on Water and Soil Conservation
• Law on Earthquake Prevention and Disaster
  Reduction
• Law on Fire-Fighting
• Meteorological Law
• Law on Production Safety
• Regulation on Forest Fire-Fighting
• Regulation on Preventing Forest Pests
• Regulation on Safety Management of Dangerous
  Chemicals

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National Disaster Reduction Plan????

• April 1998 National Natural Disaster Reduction
  Plan
• Prevention the priority
• Role of science, technology, education
• Major objectives
• Projects bearing on overall national economy and
  social progress
• Disaster-reduction technology widely applied
• Public awareness knowledge
• Alleviate impacts

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Projects Completed

• Flood-afflicted river projects
• Drought pest-stricken farmland
• Roads railways affected by landslides
• 1,461 protective embankments along Yangtze,
  Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake
• 620,000 households 2.42 million people
  resettled
• Forest ecological development, fire-prevention,
  pest control-

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Warning Systems

• Disaster monitoring pre-warning system
• Earthquake monitoring network
• Hydrometric network
• Forest fire-fighting pest prevention forecast
  network
• National Disaster Reduction Center
• Small-satellite constellations for environment
  disaster monitoring to be build
• National emergency-response plan system
• Material reserve system of disaster relief
• Public awareness raised

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Conclusions ??????

• Sichuan earthquakes were a major event ????
• China had many disaster-response systems in place
• Response was quick and effective ??????
• Challenges continue
• Want to reduce additional problems from human
  error
• Guiding principles ????
• Peoples interests first
• Disaster prevention major priority
• Apply science, technology, education
• All positive elements mobilized
• International exchange cooperation should be
  strengthened
• Risk Management in Post-Earthquake Construction
  ??????????
• Can use information technology (earthquake
  disaster data systems)
• Need to research value of prediction markets
• Recognition-primed decision approach a way to
  prepare
• ERM