Technology Foresight

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Technology Foresight
Tutorial discussion
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Characteristics of classical forecasting compared
with those of the prospective approach
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Viewpoint/variables
A
A
B
C
D
F
n..
Forecasting
Prospective
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The container used for the experiment contained
some chemicals and contaminated.
Somebody in the lab gave the worms extra food
After 3 months..
Food
Soil
Temperature
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Ozone Layer
CO2
Long term geological processes expose deposits to
air
CO2
CO2
CO2
Photosynthesis
Aerobic respiration
Producers
Producers
Consumers
Decomposers
Die
Die
CO2
CO2
CO2
Die
Photosynthesis
Aerobic respiration
Carbon containing fossil
Producers
Producers
Consumers
Decomposers
Die
Die
Die
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Future/Explanation/attitude for the future
Future
Future
Thoughts about the future
Events in the Past
Forecasting
Prospective
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Relationship
Prospective
Forecasting
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Methods
Deterministic (things happened because of
particular factors, therefore we can make
predictions with conclusive evidence)
Quantitative (can be measured e.g. quantity,
size)
Stochastic (things can happen because of multiple
and random factors, therefore we can only create
conjectures or guesses without conclusive
evidence) mostly qualitative (e.g. cannot be
measured e.g. attitude, character, opinion)
Forecasting
Prospective
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Week 4 (cont.) Fundamentals of Technology
Foresight What Why?
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Key characteristics of Technology Foresight
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Key characteristics of technology foresight

• Attempts to look into the future must be
  systematic to be called foresight

Clear process scoping, building expert and
stakeholder panels, reaching consensus and
prioritization, reporting, dissemination,
evaluation etc
Specific methods Extrapolative methods, creative
methods, priority setting methods etc
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Key characteristics of technology foresight
(2) Foresight is concerned with longer term
vision, which is beyond normal planning horizon.
It usually goes beyond 5 years.
Long term gt 5 years
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Key characteristics of technology foresight
(3) Foresight concentrates on emerging
technologies where there is a legitimate case
for government support. This is because companies
are often unwilling to fund strategic research
with limited prove of success in the market
Phase 1 Emergence
Phase II Early Growth
Phase III Late Growth
Phase IV Maturity
Degree of Maturity
Emerging Stage
Time
The Life Cycle of a Technology Source Perez and
Soete, 1988
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Key characteristics of technology foresight
(4) Attention need to be given to social and
environmental impacts, not just those concerned
with wealth creation.
Economic development
Sustainable Development
Environmental protection
Social welfare
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Key characteristics of technology foresight
(5) Science/technology push (capacity to conduct
scientific and technological research) needs to
be balanced with market pull (demand) and its
complex interaction.
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The functions of Technology Foresight
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(No Transcript)
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The functions of technology foresight
Martin and Irvine, 1989
1. Direction-setting This relates to the use of
foresight in determining broad guidelines for
science policy and establishing an agreed agenda
to explore further the prospects for a more
limited range of future RD options. These agenda
and guidelines can be divided into substantive
use (basic outlines of a position) or elaborative
use (to clarify and extend positions)
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The functions of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

2. Determining priorities This encompasses a
variety of activities seeking to identify and
select promising options for future research from
among a broader range of possibilities. These
areas of prioritization can be seen important for
allocating research funds, assessing the needs
for scientific instrumentation and evaluating
future requirements for trained researchers.
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The functions of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

3. Anticipatory intelligence Provide background
information on emerging trends in science and
technology, in particular concerning developments
with major implications for future policy making.
This form an integral part of the infrastructure
needed to undertake direction setting and
priority determining exercises. Some of the
activities includes providing prompt indication
of potential research activities, give early
warning of impending threats or difficulties,
exploring unlikely but highly significant or
disruptive development (wild card scenarios),
trends in science and policy.
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The functions of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

4. Consensus generation Promote greater
consensus among scientists, funding agencies and
research users on identified RD needs or
opportunities. The can involve both internal
consensus (within the research community) or
external consensus (with those financing,
executing and using the research)
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The functions of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

5. Communication and Education To
disseminate information and knowledge about this
technology. This can be done in several ways,
such as Promoting internal communication
within the research community External
communication with industrial and other potential
users of research Wider education of the general
public, politicians, government officials and
others with less direct involvement in the
technology
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The functions of technology foresight

• Martin and Irvine, 1989

6. Advocacy Foresight can also be used to
promote policy decisions in line with the
preference of specific stakeholders in the RD
system. This can take several forms, for example
Advocacy by senior scientists and or policy
makers, explicitly oriented towards mobilising
the research community Advocacy by researchers
which aims to influence decision makers, in
particular by setting out the case for increased
funding in terms of what if and what if not
scenario Advocacy by science policy officials
directed at government, the ministry of finance
or perhaps the general public, where the
intention is to defend or legitimate an agencys
research budget.
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Levels of technology foresight
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Technology foresight activities can be
observed in various levels Holistic
foresight on the entire spectrum of different
fields. Foresight at this level generally aims to
gain an overview of possible future directions
for a national or regional research effort, and
is typically used to coordinate or set the
scene for lower level foresight exercises.

Macro level foresight focusing on a
limited number of research fields. Most funding
agencies support a variety of disciplines/industry
and are therefore faced with having to decide
their priorities in each field.
Meso level foresight focusing on a single
scientific field or technology or sector. It is
typically used to determine which research areas
within these field/technology/sector have the
greatest socio-economic potential
Micro level Assessment of future prospects at
either the level of firms, projects or individual
scientific specialties. Systematic foresight of
this type is less common in the case of basic
science, but become increasingly widespread as
one moves along the spectrum towards applied
research.
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Holistic foresight on the entire spectrum
of different fields. Foresight at this level
generally aims to gain an overview of possible
future directions for a national or regional
research effort, and is typically used to
coordinate or set the scene for lower level
foresight exercises (e.g. technology foresight in
Thailand)

• Creation of 12 development clusters for future
  Thai industries
• Food
• Automotive
• Software, microchip and electronic product
• Fashion
• Tourism
• Healthcare
• Energy
• One Tambon One product programme development
• Modern technology
• Science for society
• Mathematics and science educations
• Nanotechnology

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Macro level foresight focusing on a limited
number of research fields. Most funding agencies
support a variety of disciplines/industry and are
therefore faced with having to decide their
priorities in each field. e.g. Technology
foresight for energy industry in the Nordic
countries
The Nordic H2 Energy Foresight is a joint
research project involving five Nordic countries
- Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.
It was launched in January 2003 and was applied
in June 2005.
Wind
Biofuel
Fuel cell
Geothermal
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Meso level foresight focusing on a single
scientific field or technology or sector. It is
typically used to determine which research areas
within these field/technology/sector have the
greatest socio-economic potential e.g. technology
foresight for fuel cells in Malaysia
Micro level Assessment of future prospects at
either the level of firms, projects or individual
scientific specialties. Systematic foresight of
this type is less common in the case of basic
science, but become increasingly widespread as
one moves along the spectrum towards applied
research e.g. Identification of strategic
projects for fuel cells in Malaysia those
associated with PEMFC and DMFC.
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LEVELS OF FORESIGHT
Holistic (general, at the level of country and
region)
Macro (new energy technology)
Meso (fuel cell technology)
Micro (specific projects in fuel cells, usually
at the level of organisation or networks of
organisation)
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Week 4 Fundamentals of Technology Foresight Who
and how?
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Who are involved in technology foresight?
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Who are involved in Technology Foresight?
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• High level government advisory body or central
  agencies involved in the coordination and
  planning of national science and technology
  policy
• Independent public sector advisory councils with
  broad remit to identify future needs and
  opportunities for research, as well as potential
  problems with existing policy
• Academic funding bodies like research councils
  whose primary task is to support basic science in
  higher education institutions
• National academies of science and other
  professional organisations of the research
  community

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Who are involved in Technology Foresight?
Martin and Irvine, 1989

• 5. Government departments and mission oriented
  agencies financing and/ or executing work in
  strategic research and basic technology
• 6. Industrial associations bringing together
  groups of companies (often from the same
  technology sector) to discuss matters of common
  interest or to collaborate in longer-term generic
  research
• 7. Science based firms in high-technology fields,
  many have been increasing their investment in
  strategic research

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Actors involved in the technology foresight for
fuel cell technology
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In Malaysia in the early1990s


UKM
UTM
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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by March 2007
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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In Singapore in the late1990s
NUS
NTU
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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by March 2007
(Please do not cite, unpublished work)
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What are the methods used to conduct technology
foresight?
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Methodological approach
UNIDO, 2005
Environmental Scanning
Issue Surveys
SWOT analysis
Simulation modeling
Trend extrapolation
Critical (and key) technologies
Road-mapping
Genius forecasting
Delphi
Scenarios
Brainstorming
Expert panels
Cross-Impact analysis
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Methodological approach
UNIDO, 2005
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Identifying issues It is common for foresight
studies to begin with some sort of scanning and
framing activity, which together identify and
inform issues on which the foresight will focus.
This is usually used as a background analysis for
other methods
Creative approach Foresight is a social and
creative process. Interactive processes that
nurture new and interesting knowledge combination
are key to the success of technology foresight.
Extrapolative approach Although foresight is a
distinct activity from forecasting, some
forecasting (or extrapolative) methods have been
borrowed by foresight practitioners. This mostly
involve statistical approaches based upon well
defined assumptions.
Prioritisation At the final stage, foresight are
often conducted with the primary aim of
identifying priorities for specific technology
development.
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Next tutorial

• Read the article National foresight in
  science and technology strategy development and
  find the answer for the following questions. We
  will discuss this questions in class.
• At what level of specificity was this TF
  exercise being conducted?
• What were the methods used?
• Explain the processes that were involved?
• What were the main functions of this TF
  exercise?
• How is the listing in Table 2 and Table 3
  different from each other?