UK Foresight Ageing Population

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UK Foresight Ageing Population

• Brian Ridsdale
• Population Ageing Associates

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Topics for Discussion

• UK Ageing Population
• UK Foresight Ageing Population Exercise
  1999-2001
• Whats happened since 2001?
• What should happen next?

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Brian Ridsdale

• Worked on two Foresight Task Forces
• Founded UK Actuaries Ageing Population Group
• Partner, Population Ageing Associates
• Chairman, Continuous Mortality Investigation

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1. UK Ageing Population

• Longevity
• Migration
• Fertility

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UK Ageing Population LongevitySlide courtesy BBC

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UK Ageing Population Fertility Slide courtesy
BBC

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UK Population Changes 2004-2050 Main Projection
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UK Population Changes 2004-2050 Low Fertility
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UK Population Changes 2004-2050 High Fertility
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• UK Foresight Ageing Population
• 1999 - 2001 Cycle
• Foresight is a national capacity to think ahead.
  The aim is to increase UK exploitation of
  science.
• Foresight Programme 2004

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UK Foresight Ageing Population

• 2001 Conclusions

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Doom or Boom?

• The AGE SHIFT can be seen as a portent of doom or
  a challenge and an opportunity
• We are faced with an ageing population
• People are staying younger for longer

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Key Areas Where the Ageing Population Will Impact

• Employment, lifelong learning, leisure
• Finance
• Health and social care
• Design of products and services
• Use of information and communications technology
  (ICT)

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Implications for Employment

• Current perceptions about working life/retirement
  need to change
• Reconsider the notion of formal retirement.
• Flexible approach to retirement supported by
  flexible working patterns
• Development of portfolio careers
• Treatment on basis of competence rather than age
• Positive incentives to remain in the workforce

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Implications for Pensions

• Can we sustain a culture in which people enter
  the workforce later and leave earlier?
• When the state retirement pensions was introduced
  life expectancy beyond pensionable age was about
  3 years.
• Keeping people economically active saves public
  money and boosts economy.

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Lifelong Learning

• Two out of three jobs require ICT and we shall
  create a new fault line in the employment of
  older people unless lifelong learning becomes an
  established part of our programme
• Tessa Jowell
• Minister for State for Employment

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New Financial Services for an Older Population

• Pensions
• Equity Release
• Long Term Care
• The industry needs to differentiate its products
  so that it can cater both for younger, richer
  retirees and older, poorer pensioners

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Implications for Health and Social Care

• The fastest growing age group is the over 80s
• Scope for technological advances to support
  independent living
• Education for healthy ageing vital
• Caring for more older people creating pressure on
  public sector budgets
• Regional implications

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Inclusion by Design

• Design for the young and youll exclude the old
  design for the old and youll include the young
• Gero von Randow
• Siemens

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Information and Communications Technology (ICT)

• Internet shopping is only the start - there will
  be changes across the board, from education,
  healthcare, access to information, personal
  contacts and communication, public services and
  transport, through local and national government
  and democratic processes
• As ICT use spreads into older age groups - and
  older people constitute an ever large proportion
  of the population - their lifestyles and needs
  will increasingly determine the demand for ICT
  based products, services and applications

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The Grey Pound - Opportunities

• Changes in existing markets
• New home markets
• New international markets

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Challenges

• Missing the boat!
• Risk of increasing social exclusion
• Need to balance needs of older people with
  reasonable taxation of others

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The Age Shift- Priorities for Action

• Recommendations fall into three groups
• Helping business to meet the age shift
• Planning for an ageing society
• New research directions

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UK Foresight Ageing Population

• Whats happened since 2001?

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UK Foresight Ageing Population Whats happened
since 2001? - examples

• Public sector initiatives
• Foresight The Age Shift Priorities for action
• Winning the Generation Game
• Securing Good Health for the Whole Population
• Regional networks and groups
• Business
• Trade associations initiative
• Voluntary/charity sector
• Royal Society of Arts User-centred design
• Age Concern initiatives

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UK Foresight Ageing Population Whats
happened? - PAA activities

• Regional Strategy Reviews
• East of England
• London
•  Developing the Mature Market
• 'Older Richer Fitter identifying the customer
  needs of Britain's ageing population'. Metz and
  Underwood. March 2005
• Transport and Mobility
• 'Evaluating Measures to Enhance the Mobility of
  Older and Disabled Persons'
• Review of age discrimination in transport
• Review of transport policies  for an ageing
  population

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UK Foresight Ageing Population Whats
happened since 2001?

• Conclusion?
• Difficult to tell no published measures or
  reporting back
• Successes
• Some public sector individual initiatives
• What might have helped?
• Ageing population audit team or champions?
• Stakeholder concept at start?
• Formal follow-up?

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UK Foresight Ageing Population

• What should happen next?

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4. What should happen next?

• Within UK maybe .
• 5 year review of impact?
• Audit of ageing strategies?
• Specific research and development project
  addressing an ageing issue?
• Requires analysis of developments including
  international, and forecasts
• Visions what success will look like
• Recommendations to make the most of technology
• Networks of people keen to take work forward

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4. What should happen next?

• Internationally maybe .
• Review of UK Foresight findings and lessons?
• International comparisons/benchmarking?
• International research and development project
  addressing an ageing issue?
• But within the new UK framework?
• Industry is international tackle opportunities
  arising from Ageing Population ?

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Conclusion

• UK Ageing Population Foresight finished -
• at least in old form
• UK initiatives will need to fit in with new
  framework
• International initiatives
• Review UK lessons?
• Comparisons or benchmarking?
• A project in a specific field?

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Black slide