Relationship between Policymaking and Foresight program in Japan

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Relationship between Policy-making and
Foresight program in Japan
VIII. Bled Forum on Europe FORESIGHT
CONFERENCE GOVERNING FUTURES
Round Table on Role of Foresight in National
Policy-making

• 2007.03.03
• Kumi Okuwada Ph.D.
• National Institute of Science and Technology
  Policy (NISTEP)
• Japan

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Contents

• History backgrounds
• of Japanese
  Foresight
• International / Domestic Dimension
• Political implications
• The latest foresight in Japan
• Relation between foresight and policy making
• Design of multi-methodology foresight
• Innovation and the foresight program
• Discussion for Innovation 25 initiative
• based on results of the foresight
  program

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Genealogical tree of National foresight
applications
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Structure of National Foresight Activities
Periodical survey (Same
methodology) A large number of respondents
(Experts) Wide coverage of ST
fields

• NISTEP
• Ministries
• Groups of companies
• Individual companies
• and research institutes

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Generation of Technology Foresight
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ST Administrative Structure in Japan
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Development of Foresight in Japan
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Delphi Survey
A methodology obtaining consensus in future image
and long-term strategy among ST experts with
repeated questionnaires
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History of Japanese Delphi Survey
Experts Respondents (2 cycles of the
questionnaires)
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Evaluation of Early Survey at 2004
1st Delphi (1971)
2nd Delphi (1976)
3rd Delphi (1981)
4th Delphi (1986)
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International Collaboration (Japan 1992 -
German 1993)
Importance
Realization Time
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Relationship between ST Policy and Foresight
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What are new in the 8th program (2003-04) ?

• 1. Clear Target on Client and Timing
• Strong linkage with policy making process
• Political Message
• by coupling with Review Program
• Contribution to discussion for 3rd Basic Plan
• 2. Multi-methodology Foresight
• Improvement in Delphi
• and complementary three
  analysis
• Not only Technology,
• but also Science and
  Social
• Wider variety of participants
• Post-foresight program

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Two research projects conducted by NISTEP
(supported by Special Coordination Funds for
Promoting ST in FY 2003-04)
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Design of the 8th foresight program
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Improved Delphi Survey
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New Approaches in Delphi Survey
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Scenario Analysis

• written by experts with deep insight.
• normative and subjective.
• schematic future image with time scale.

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Example of Scenario Life support robotics
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Example of Scenario New healthcare that meets
individual needs
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Bibliometric Analysis of rapidly-developing
research areas
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Example of RAs
Proteomics
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Procedure of Socio-economic Needs Analysis
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Innovation 25 initiative in Japan
The policy speech of the Prime Minister Abe
administration (26th Sept. 2006)
"The long-term strategy initiative "Innovation
25" will be put together and executed with an eye
on the year 2025 in each field of medicine,
engineering, and information technology, etc. for
the creation of innovation contributing to the
growth."
The initiative defined Innovation as
Technological Improvements

New businesses New social systems/institutions
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Discussion for Innovation 25 initiative
Based on the foresight survey below, experts take
a comprehensive view of Japanese society in 2025
at meetings and workshops.
- Vision of Japanese Society underpinned by
technological feasibility - Needed social systems
Japanese foresight survey conducted by NISTEP
during 03-04
Survey results
Experts who have deep insights into the latest
technologies and their impacts on society
Around 2500 experts were involved.
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Concluding Remarks Japanese 8th foresight program

• Strong and direct linkage between foresight and
  policy making
• - Supporting more evidence-based policy
  making
• Multi-methodology foresight
• - Compilation of various aspects of
  information
• Contribution to discussion on Innovation
• - Positive inputs as described
• Future Society through ST
  developments