Technology Foresight SFES3213

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Technology Foresight SFES3213
Week 2
Innovation
Technology Foresight
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Technology Foresight?
Definition
The process in systematically attempting to look
into the longer term future of science,
technology, the economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research
and emerging generic technologies likely to yield
the greatest economic and social benefits
(Martin, 1993)
Reference



Martin, B
(1993)


Technology
Foreisght 6 A Review of Recent overseas
Programmes. Office of Science and Technology,
United Kingdom
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(No Transcript)
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Forms of technology foresight
Future Scenarios
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
See the Future scenarios website
http//www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/26/40/
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Outputs of technology foresight
List of critical technologies

• Creation of 12 development clusters for future
  Thai industries
• Food
• Automotive
• Software, microchip and electronic product
• Fashion
• Tourism
• Healthcare
• Energy
• One Tambon One product programme development
• Modern technology
• Science for society
• Mathematics and science educations
• Nanotechnology

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Outputs of technology foresight
Technology Roadmap
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Innovation
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Innovation
Definition

• In general, dictionaries and textbooks cannot
  seem to agree
• New idea, methods and device
• The creation of something in the mind
• A creation, a new device or process, resulting
  from study and experimentation
• The introduction of something new
• A creative new idea, method, device or approach
  that gives a company an advantage over its
  competitors.
• However in the field of innovation studies,
  innovation is defined simply as the act of
  introducing something new to create added value
  to the market.

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Innovation
Definition
But Innovation is also not only process of
generating, developing and testing new ideas to
produce new products, processes and services, but
also the act of manufacturing and marketing these
products and services to the market. Therefore,
invention (i.e. conversion of ideas into tangible
new products, process and services) is only a
part of innovation! Innovation theoretical
conception (new ideas) technical invention
(RD) commercial exploitation (manufacturing
and marketing) Innovation is not about creating
new ideas and RD alone! Policy challenge In
most developing countries, creation of new ideas
may be substantial, but RD and commercial
exploitation are usually low.
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Innovation
Added value
Innovation is defined as the act of introducing
something new to create added value to the
market.
The added value can be in various forms.
Economic value ? making economic profits.
Social value ? improving conditions,
relationships and well being of society
Environment value ? improving surroundings by
conserving natural resource and making things
cleaner and safer
Proton Waja
New Proton Saga
Future?
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Innovation
ST and innovation
Why is innovation is related to the development
of science and technology?
Innovation new ideas technical invention or
RD commercial exploitation
Because current trends in the innovation process
involve the process of generating new ideas based
on knowledge derived from scientific activities
to develop new products, processes and services
that can bring added value to the market or
society.
Innovation new ideas technical invention or
RD commercial exploitation
(science)
(technology)
(entrepreneurship)
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Different perspectives on innovation
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Perspectives on innovation
Types of innovation The 4Ps
Product innovation Changes in the things
(products/services) which an organization offers
e.g. new car design But beyond product
innovation, there are also underlying changes
that can be made Process innovation Changes in
the ways in which products/services are created
and delivered e.g. cleaner production,
computerised and robotic manufacturing, total
quality management Position innovation Changes
in the context or market in which the
products/services are introduced e.g. Lucozade
Paradigm innovation Changes in the underlying
mental models which frames what the organisation
does e.g. Starbucks
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Perspectives on innovation
Degree of change and the innovation space
From incremental to radical innovation There
are degrees of novelty in the different types of
innovation, running from minor improvements right
through radical changes which transform the way
we think about and use them
Paradigm
Incremental..radical
Incremental..radical
Product
Process
Incremental..radical
Innovation
Incremental..radical
Position
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Perspectives on innovation
Models of innovation
(1) First generation
Supply/Technology push
Linear

• Simple linear sequential
• Emphasis on RD
• Market is receptacle for the fruits of RD

Science
Technology
Market/ Entrepreneurship
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(2) Second generation Market pull

• Simple linear sequential
• Emphasis on marketing
• Market is the source of ideas for directing RD.
  
• RD has a reactive role

Science
Technology
Market/ Entrepreneurship
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(3) Third generation Chain-linked
model

• Feedback loops
• Combination of push and pull
• Balance between RD and marketing
• Emphasis on integration between RD and
  marketing

Science
Technology
Market/ Entrepreneurship
Read Kline and Rosenberg (1986)
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Perspectives on innovation
Innovation is becoming increasingly complex, with
higher interaction between supply and demand.
Therefore activities between those involved in
the different stages of innovation are
increasingly intertwined creating new ideas
(science)

RD (technology)

commercial exploitation
(entrepreneurship) In addition to this
complexity, our understanding about the
innovation process is also becoming more diverse
and sophisticated not only in the different
ways in which innovation can be conducted (the
4Ps) but also the degree in which it can be done
(from incremental to radical). Due to this, a
proper innovation management needs to be in place
in order to strategically manage this complexity
and diversity. Technology foresight is one of
the tools that can be used in innovation
management!
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Technology foresight and the innovation process
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Innovation and technology foresight
Innovation is not easy.
Although innovation is increasingly seen as a
powerful way of securing competitive advantage,
success is by no means guaranteed. The history of
innovation is littered with examples of
apparently good ideas which failed. For example
studies of product innovation consistently point
to a high level of failure between initial idea
and having successful product in the market
place. Actual figures range from 30 to as high
as 95, with an accepted average of 38 But
this is not surprising innovation is a risky
business. There is a great deal of uncertainty
in innovation, made up of market, social,
political and other factors, with the results are
usually very thin unless the process is managed
carefully. Moreover (as mentioned earlier),
innovation is also a complex and diverse process.
This increases the challenges that an innovator
has to face! TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is one of the
tools that can be used to improve the management
process.
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Innovation and technology foresight
The innovation journey
Innovation new ideas technical
invention RD commercial exploitation
Searching
Committing
Optimising
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring
Realising
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Innovation and technology foresight
The innovation journey Searching phase
Searching
Committing
Optimising
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring
Realising
In this first phase, ideas that meet needs,
respond to opportunity or advance a groups
strategic goals are deliberately hunted and
gathered. At the end phase, there will be many
ideas, opportunities will have been defined and
those beginning the innovation journey will be
challenged and inspired.
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Strategic intent To produce more environmentally
friendly product for my firm or country
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Innovation and technology foresight
The innovation journey exploring phase
Searching
Committing
Optimising
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring
Realising
The next phase is exploring, in which ideas and
opportunities are organized, debated and analyzed
in order to understand them in depth. Ideas need
to be tested to demonstrate that they are
practical and to ensure (as far as possible) that
the proposed innovation is wanted by potential
internal and external customers or stakeholders.
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Strategic intent To produce more environmentally
friendly product for my firm or country
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Innovation and technology foresight
The innovation journey committing phase
Searching
Optimising
Committing
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring
Realising
In this phase, the emphasis moves from what we
could do? to what should we do?. The focus is
on making clear decisions on what to do, what not
to do and getting commitments on how to go
forward. In consultation with those whose
involvement is critical, decides which ideas will
be move forward and which will rejected and
sidelined.
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Strategic intent To produce more environmentally
friendly product for my firm or country

• Plan of execution
• What are the activities required?
• Who should be involved?

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Innovation and technology foresight
The innovation journey realising phase
Searching
Committing
Optimising
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring
Realising
Here, the emphasis is towards execution, from the
what to the how. It is all about achieving
the goals already decided in the previous steps.
Although this phase may appear like any project
management process, there are significant
differences. Most well established projects have
a high degree of repetition due to well
established procedures but, innovation tasks
are different. Many unexpected issues will need
to be resolved. Ongoing learning is required.
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Strategic intent To produce more environmentally
friendly product for my firm or country
Execution Managing actors to conduct the planned
tasks
Value created
Value created
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Innovation and technology foresight
The innovation journey optimising phase
Searching
Committing
Optimising
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring
Realising
Finally, the last phase is about maximizing
benefits i.e. increasing the degree to which the
idea has been exploited fully. The aim is to pull
all the possible rabbits out of the innovation
hat!
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Strategic intent To produce more environmentally
friendly product for my firm or country
Optimising value to the max!
Value created
Value created, plus other values
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Innovation and technology foresight
The process in systematically attempting to look
into the longer term future of science,
technology, the economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research
and emerging generic technologies likely to yield
the greatest economic and social benefits
(Martin, 1993)
So, where which phase or phases do you think
technology foresight is positioned in the
innovation journey ?
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(The seeker) Searching
Committing
Optimising
Strategic Intent
Value created
Exploring (The alchemist)
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Innovation and technology foresight
Searching (The seeker)
Exploring (The alchemist)
Committing (The judge)

• You are ready to move to the next phase if you
  have
• clarified your innovation intention
• searched in unexplored areas
• identified a large number of high-quality ideas

• You are ready to move to the next phase if you
  have
• Explored fully and insightfully the potential
  value that may be created from new ideas
• narrowed to the most promising ideas
• gathered enough information to be convinced that
  value added will be much greater than costs
  incurred

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Innovation and technology foresight
Innovation as a knowledge based process
Innovation is about combining different types of
knowledge i.e. creating new possibilities through
openness in combining different knowledge sets!
The process of weaving these different
knowledge sets together into a successful
innovation is one which takes place under highly
uncertain conditions. We do not know about what
the final innovation configuration will look like
(and we dont know how we will get there).
Managing innovation (technology foresight
included) is about turning uncertainties into
knowledge but we can do so only by committing
resources to reduce the uncertainty effectively
it is a balancing act!
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THANK YOU! Any questions??