Technology Foresight Pilot Project

1
(No Transcript)
2
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is
Systematic exploration of the longer-term future
of science and technology, and their potential
impacts on society, with a view to identifying
emerging factors driving change, and the areas of
scientific research and technological development
likely to influence change and yield the greatest
economic, environmental and social benefits over
the next 10-25 years.
3
The Disclaimer
The ideas, potential developments and prospective
events envisioned in this report have been
identified by participants as situations that
could occur in the future. They do not purport
to be predictive. The approach we are taking
relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise,
with the expectation that through our collective
experience, imaginative abilities and interactive
knowledge of technological development pathways,
we can begin to construct a coherent view of some
of the major developments that can be anticipated
within a 10-25 time horizon. This is the
nature of foresight - creating a range of
plausible future elements that in their diversity
should alert readers to the kinds of issues and
perspectives they may not have initially
considered in longer term research planning and
contingency thinking.  Accordingly, this report
reflects the combined views of the participants,
and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we
could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but
it clearly does not represent an official view of
the Government of Canada or any of its
Departments and or Agencies.  
4
STFP Project Background

• Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE
  DMs and ADMs.
• Pilot project independent of any other ST
  funding.
• Funded by participating agencies.
• Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key
  technology sectors for study
• GEOSTRATEGICS including geo-spatial data
  sensing, gathering, artificial intelligence,
  pattern analysis and knowledge management.
• BIOSYSTEMICS including nano to global
  biotechnology, eco and food systems, emergent and
  convergent trends in health, genomics disease
  mitigation and cognitive science.
• Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology
  Foresight composed of seconded staff and
  consultants

5
PROJECT OBJECTIVES

• Create a futures context discussion framework
  for the development of policies, agendas
  investment strategies for ST and RD.
• Initiate a network to create discussion and
  emerging consensus on where and how to
  collaborate among departments, agencies other
  stakeholders.
• Strengthen focus networks of collaboration
  among Canadian international experts in
  advanced 'geo' and 'bio' ST.
• Design and test a collaborative learning
  methodology and process for the inclusion of ST
  input to the policy process.

6
Purpose Practice
Society and Politics
Economics and Finance
Environment
Resource Management
Economic Development
Health
Security
Communities of Purpose
Communities of Practice
7
Communities of Purpose

• Alignment along priority areas
• Often operate as specialty silos
• Use ST as a specialty skill set
• Compete for attention and funding
• May have conflicting priorities
• Environment vs. Resource management
• Economic development vs. Security
• Short term efficiency vs Long term effectiveness
• Opportunities may be missed or problems narrowed
  to comply with mission boundaries

8
Communities of Practice

• Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated
  disciplines with traditional ways of working
  together on broad issues
• Society and Politics
• Value-based, distributes authority
• Operates on political, executive level
• Economics and Finance
• Money-based, distributes resource
• Operates at central bureaucratic level

9
Science and Technology

• Knowledge-based, distributes capability
• Fragmented, does not act as a true horizontal
  policy vector
• Traditions of inter-disciplinarity only now
  developing
• Significant innovation potential
• Efficiency of existing programs
• Formulation of new policies
• Avoidance of problems created by a purely
  commercial research agenda

10
A Range of Prospects

• Sustainability science
• Remote environmental sensing
• Metabolomics
• Technology convergence/genetics
• DNA-based early warning
• Advanced power systems
• Microbial ecosystems
• Remote diagnosis/diseases
• Personalized medicine
• Biotechnology
• Human global health/environment
• Predictive modelling
• Security/Info systems, networks
• Integrated nanotechnology
• Regenerative medicine
• Advanced computational systems

• Climate change from space
• Sustainable manufacturing
• Intelligent robotics systems
• Space for environmental security
• Biomass energy
• Changing northern environment
• Space-enabling technologies
• Biodiversity/Invasive species
• Canadas sea floor
• Virtual ocean
• Proteomics/economy, health
• Space Surveillance and National Security
• Intelligent Autonomous Systems.
• Clean hydrocarbons, H2
• Sensors/Activators - health
• Biodiversity info for KBE
• Security of Info Infrastructure

11
Geostrategics

• The future horizons and applications of
  geo-spatial data and related knowledge management
  technologies for decision support, including
  pattern recognition software, wireless
  communications infrastructure futures, and links
  to major new capacities in surveillance,
  ecological monitoring and resource management
  technologies.

12
The Geostrategics ?

• How will geo-strategic knowledge, technology and
  prospective applications likely to be available
  in 2015 reshape our understanding of Canada, its
  land, sea and air/space resources, and provide
  new capabilities for national security, and the
  stewardship and sustainability of Canadas
  resources?

13
Biosystemics

• The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological
  science, biotechnology, information technology
  and cognitive sciences, and their prospective
  impacts on materials science, the management of
  complex public systems for bio-health, eco and
  food system integrity and disease mitigation.

14
The Biosystemics ?

• How can the federal government better understand
  the complexities and interdependencies of
  Canadas food, health and environmental systems,
  and develop a 10 year horizon of actionable
  intelligence for research and policy in these
  areas, given new knowledge about emergence,
  behavior of populations, disease ecology,
  genomics, etc.?

15
BioSystemics Characteristics

• Scale
• Nano-scale observations at low end
• Data handling and simulation at high end
• Convergence
• Unity at the material level
• Consilience
• High level models may result in unity at
  theoretical level
• Emergence
• Seeking to understand rules for networks, tipping
  points, systems structure, chaos and complexity

16
Science and Scale
17
Convergence
Biotech
Computers
Bits
Genes
Neurons
Atoms
Networks
Nanotech
18
Consilience

• Unity of theory and knowledge
• Vertical integration using computational models
• Hybrid technologies
• Nano-medecine
• Quantum computing
• May well include social sciences

Nano Bio Info/Cogno
19
GeoStrategics Value System
20
Focus Scope

• We approach Geostrategics from a application
  perspective, as opposed to the technology areas
  offered in Biosystemics.
• 6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop
• Environment Resources
• National Security Emergency
• Transportation
• Sustainable Cities and Urban Development
• Heath Risks and Hazards
• Ocean and Inland Water Resources

21
Convergence Of Sciences Advanced Technologies
Geoscience
Photonics
Nanotechnology
Climatology
Atmospheric Science
Meteorology

Oceanography
Biology


Mapping
Robotics

Ecology

Knowledge Management

Renewable Energy
Advanced Materials
Urban Studies
IT Information Technology
22
Spectrum of Breakthrough GeoStrategic
Technologies Needed
Sensors
Sensorweb

Adaptive Data

3D Detectors
Management

Non
-
Linear Optics

Automated Calibration

Tunable
Lidar

Reconfigurable
Communications

Advanced microwave

Autonomous Operations

Micro
Lidar

Multi
-
Functional

Warm Focal Planes
Structures

Rad
-
Tolerant

Large Telescopes and
Antennas
Microelectronics

Biological Markers
Access to Knowledge
Information Synthesis


Human
-
Computer Interface for
Space/Ground Programming
.
Env.
Geo
-
Spatial Datasets

Reconfiguration Management

Collaborative Environments

Open Model Architecture

Distributed Visualization

Parallel Systems

High Bandwidth Delivery Systems

Geo
-
spatial DBMS

Data Mining/Dynamic Data Fusion

Standards Protocols

Geo
-
reference Standards
Source Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan
23
DELIVERABLES REPORTING

• Summaries of results for each stage scoping
  workshops technical panels synthesis, and
  scenarios.
• High priority 'robust' disruptive or
  transformative technologies.
• Potential collaborative RD strategies.
• Potential new planning and contingency roles or
  foci for government, industry and academia.
• Suggestions for action, including horizontal
  ST/RD mechanisms and partnerships, capacity
  requirements, best practices, improvements to
  project methodology.

24
Nanotechnology

• Present
• Nanotubes
• Nano-coatings
• Liposomes
• Lapping compounds

• Future
• Quantum dots
• Catalyst
• SET
• Self-org manufacture

• Convergence
• Microbivores
• Photonic crystals
• Molecular switching
• Sensors

• Consilience
• Reproduction of natural processes (DNA)
• Enable macro n/w

25
Info-Cogno Technology

• Present
• Moores Law
• Internet
• Data Mining
• Simulation

• Future
• AI - Smart
• Controls
• Autonomic
• Pervasive

• Convergence
• Bio-interface
• Asynchronous
• Low energy chip
• Gigaflop modeling

• Consilience
• Singularity change so rapid it can only be
  managed by trans-humans

26
Systemics

• Present
• Top-down models
• Epidemiology
• Model results
• H. Scale dynamics

• Future
• Bottom-up
• Eco-epidemiology
• Model basic activity
• Micro-dynamics

• Convergence
• Biological models
• Replication
• Adaptation
• Heuristic

• Consilience
• Unified world view will require high level of
  cross-disciplinary education.

27
Geostrategic Future?

• Future
• Integrated Geo Utility at system level
• Open system integrated infrastructure
• Integrated data collection
• Seamless to users get what you want when you
  want it
• Real-time coverage, data and systems
• Significantly wireless
• Integrated, inexpensive sensors
• AI and pattern recognition pervasive
  surveillance
• Sensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and
  physical measurements
• Peer to peer calibration and validation real time
• Smart maps
• Smart systems
• Information and decision support focused for
  customers

• Present
• Distributed silos
• Fragmented data collection
• Fragmented infrastructure, systems
• Some Interconnections
• Data focused
• Lack of real-time coverage, data, systems
• Difficult data integration

28
Geostrategics Wild Cards

• Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security)
• International conflicts, war
• Terrorist attacks (chemical, biological,
  radioactive, nuclear, information, internet)
• Unexpected natural disasters (floods, droughts,
  hurricanes etc.)
• Climate change acceleration
• Satellite, ground station failures
• Collapse of the economy, financial system

• Collapse of the United Nations, change in world
  order
• Human made disasters and accidents (e.g.
  Walkerton, genetic accident)
• Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of
  unknown military technologies with significant
  impact
• Pandemic
• Interstellar events

29
Range of Enabling Technologies

• Nanotechnology
• Designer materials
• Increasing information processing power of
  semiconductors, photonic, DNA, quantum computing
• High speed, high bandwidth communications
• Semantic internet
• Smart systems and agents
• Autonomic software (self-repair and automatic
  code generation)
• Wireless communications, including peer to peer
  communications and computing
• Portable fuel cells and new forms of power
  generation

• Real-time information systems
• Robotics, nanorobotics
• Organic, bio sensors
• Integrated, inexpensive, smart sensors (nano,
  bio, chemical, physical, optical)
• New human-machine interfaces (e.g. direct link to
  the brain)
• Virtual reality based visioning and
  decision-support tools
• Telepresence
• Smart vehicle technologies
• Geopositioning systems
• Micro, nano satellite constellations
• Ocean technologies

30
Scenario Approaches

• Axes of Uncertainty boundaries of expectation,
  quadrants of contrast
• Themes that Colour technovectors and societal
  receptions social diversity
• Projective Analytics projecting the present and
  adding spice to the space
• Wildcards and Inversions thinking the
  unthinkable and the reversals
• ST Emergent Determinant technology as the
  dominant driver and critical differentiator

31
Scenario Purposes

• Tracking emergence prospective impacts of
  influential trends technologies
• Informing RD planners, policy makers
• Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking
• Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights
• Evaluating comparing a range of scenarios to
  assess robustness of technologies
• Facilitating long term RD and strategic
  investments
• Imagining future knowledge skills needs, job
  shifts

32
e.g. 15 Potential Themes

• GAIA Strikes Back technology systems
  collapses, pervasive barriers
• Agility Advantage Can succeeding, adapting,
  competing, diversifying
• Co-Evolu-Innova-tion Govt communities as
  co-innovators
• Insecure Cocoon terrorism unchecked, ever
  present
• Virtual Avatar cyber-reality
• Genomic Anomic biotech transformations upsets
• Comfortably Numb big brother takes care through
  technology

• Birkenstock Bicycle toward assured
  sustainability
• Cool is Cruel cultural fixations for technology,
  fast shifts
• O Say Can You C AmeriCanada? Canada slow merge
  into the USA
• Navigation Net fully enabled wireless net
  functionality
• Techno Freak reversals of socio-technical
  potential into problems
• Other Sides parallel worlds of values
  technology co-existing
• True North Long Narrow life on the fringe
• Invisible Hand vibrant 21st century marketplaces

33
VII. Implications for Federal Research
Development