Population and Society

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Population and Society
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4 Major Causes of Environmental Change

• Population change
• Institutions
• Attitudes, values, belief systems
• Technological change

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Carrying Capacity

• The maximum number of organisms an environment
  can support.
• But highly dependent on technology, there is no
  set carrying capacity, technology increases
  production

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Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)

• An Essay on Population (1798).
• Wrote at beginning of the 19th century, when
  population growth and industry were raising
  demands for food faster than English agriculture
  could respond.
• Human population would always increase
  exponentially (the larger it gets the faster it
  grows) while the supply of food and land would
  only increase arithmetically (additively)

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• Scarce farmland
• Overuse of resources
• Poverty and human misery
• Each increase in food supply only meant that more
  people could live in poverty

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Cultural Carrying Capacity

• There should be no more people in a country than
  could enjoy a daily glass of wine and a piece of
  beef for dinner. --Thomas Malthus
• Cultural carrying capacity is smaller
• than simple carrying capacity.

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World Population Growth Rates
Population growth rates measured by annual
increase in a countrys population are highest in
Africa and Middle East. Growth rates are flat
in U.S., Europe, and former Soviet Union
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World Population Growth Doubling Time

• 1800-1850 1 billion
• 1930 2 billion
• 1960 (30 years) 3 billion
• 1974 (14 years) 4 billion
• 1986 (12 years) 5 billion
• 1999 (13 years) 6 billion

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• The current increase of the Earths human
  population in either absolute or relative terms,
  vastly exceeds the average increases over most of
  human history.
• Nobody saw this coming.
• In 1936 demographers predicted that the world
  population 2.645 billion people by the end of the
  21st century (we hit that by 1955).
• 1950 estimate 3.3 billion by 2000 (off by 50.)

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World Population Growth

• Growth rate was at all time peak of 2.1 between
  1965-1970 (The Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich,
  1968).
• Predicted "in the 1970s and 1980s and 1980
  hundreds of millions of people will starve to
  death", that nothing can be done to avoid mass
  famine greater than any in the history, and
  radical action is needed to limit the
  overpopulation. ( a neo-Malthusian position)
• The growth rate has since declined to about 1.2
  per year.

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• Global fertility rates are falling from 5
  children per woman per lifetime in 1950-55 to 2.7
  children in 2000-2005
• Absolute annual increase in population peaked
  around 1990 at 86 million and has fallen to 77
  million.
• In 1960, five countries had total fertility rates
  at or below the required level required to
  replace the population in the long run.
• By 2000 there were 64 such countries with 44 of
  world population

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The Demographic Transition Model

• Beginning-High Birth rates, high death rates
• Transition-High birth rates, low death rates (By
  1900, life expectancy at birth was 40-50 years,
  today it is 78 years for women and 71 for men and
  rising rapidly).
• Third Stage-low death rates, low birth rates

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Why has the worlds population increased by so
much?

• The Demographic Transition Model
• People didnt start having more babies, more
  people began to survive.

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Demographic Transition ContinuedWhat makes the
death rate decrease?

• Increased productivity agriculture can support
  larger populations than before
• Advances in the control of epidemic diseases and
  improvement in public health, death control
  antibiotics, biocide DDT to control insect
  vectors of infection, vaccines against smallpox,
  measles, whooping cough, and drugs that cured
  tuberculosis and malaria

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Demographic Transition ContinuedWhat makes the
birth rate decrease?

• As people become urbanized children go from
  being an economic asset, to becoming an economic
  burden
• Cultural norms that encouraged a women to have
  large numbers of children weakened.
• Increasing opportunities for women low status of
  womeneconomic dependence and higher birthrates.
  

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The Six Commandments of Population Control

• 1. Promote Contraceptives.
• 2. Develop Economies
• 3. Save Children
• 4. Empower and Educate Women
• 5. Educate Men
• 6. Do all of the above

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The Population Debate

• Neo-Malthusian our capacity to produce food
  cannot keep up with our reproductive capacity.
• Population growth is a severe threat
• There are limits to the physical capacity of the
  planet to sustain growth
• Population growth is also a major cause of
  environmental degradation

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Explaining World Hunger

• Agricultural modernization perspective argues
  that the world hunger problem is caused by not
  enough food produced by traditional agriculture
• Another major factor lies not in the quantity of
  food, but the distribution of food.

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Where is most population growth in the US from?

• According to the census bureau, post-1970
  immigrants and their descendents will account for
  over 80 of US population growth between now and
  mid 21st century.

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Migration Population Growth in the US

• 1994 US Commission on Immigration Reform
  declared We disagree with those who would label
  efforts to control immigration as being
  inherently anti-immigrant. Rather it is both a
  right and a responsibility of a democratic
  society to manage immigration so it serves
  national interest.

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Population growth in the US

• According to surveys by the Wall Street Journal
  and the Latino National Political Survey Clear
  majorities of African Americans and Latinos favor
  reductions in legal and illegal immigration.

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The Politics of Population

• 1974 The First UN Conference on Population
• Developing countries rejected the Neo-Malthusian
  position, that poor countries are poor because of
  overpopulation.
• Instead, poverty causes overpopulation.
• Redistribution of wealth is needed.
• Birth control vs. wealth control

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• Today, many developing countries are actively
  trying to limit population.
• Chinas one child policy

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Todays World Population

• World POPClock Projection
• According to the International Programs Center,
  U.S. Bureau of the Census,

http//opr.princeton.edu/popclock/
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Will Malthus always be wrong? Current Declines in
World Population Growth Rate
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How Big will the Population Get? Trends

• The global total fertility rate fell from 5
  children per woman per lifetime in 1950-55 to 2.7
  children in 2000-2005.
• Absolute annual increase in population peaked
  around 1990 at 86 million, and more recently is
  at 77 million
• 64 countries with 44 of total population now
  have fertility rates below those needed to
  replace population

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More Trends

• More than half of the annual increase currently
  occurs in six countries India, China, Pakistan,
  Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the US (but US only 4).

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Population Growth Scenarios

• Fertility at current levels 12.8 billion by
  2050.
• Medium projection-8.9 billion by 2050 assumes
  family planning efforts will continue and suceed,
  fertility continues to drop..
• Most optimistic prediction7.066 billion

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• More than half of annual increase in six
  countries India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
  Nigeria, and the US (mostly from immigration)

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Will Food Production Keep Up?Will
Malthus always be Wrong?