Sudan

1
Sudan
And Climate Change
2
Sudan and Climate Change

• Signed the UNFCCC in Rio1992 and ratified in
  November 1993
• Active member, attended all sessions and
  participated in many International Associated
  Activities
• Active member of the IPCC, with a number of
  experts being selected as lead authors in the
  different publications
• October 2004 the ratification of the Kyoto
  Protocol was signed by the president of the
  republic

3
The climate change enabling project

• Funded by GEF and UNDP with in-kind contribution
  from Sudan government
• Implemented by Higher Council for Environment and
  Natural Resources (HCENR) and UNDP
• Technically supported by Stockholm Environment
  Institute Boston Center
• Implementation started in 1998 and completed by
  the end of 2001
• Sudans First National Communication was
  submitted in June 2003.

4
(No Transcript)
5
The objectives

• Main
• To foster human resource development in order to
  effectively deal with climate change and address
  its global and nationwide consequences and
  implications
• Specific
• To improve Sudanese capacity to comply with
  UNFCCC
• To facilitate the development of approaches that
  integrate national sustainable development
  objectives with responses to the UNFCCC and
• To prepare and institutionalize the national
  communication

6
Sudan Vulnerability and Adaptation (V and A)
Assessment
1 Rationale

• Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of
  climate change
• The majority of its land is quite sensitive to
  changes in temperature precipitation and use
  practices.
• Fragile ecosystems
• Weak infrastructure and economy.
• Food security is mainly determined by rainfall
• More than 70 of Sudan population is directly
  dependant on climate-sensitive resources for
  their livelihood.
• Increased frequency of natural and man-made
  disasters
• Severe poverty and deteriorating livelihood

7
2 Approach

• Study area Kordofan region
• Located in central Sudan between latitudes 9? 30
  and 16? 24 North and longitudes 27? to 32? East
• Exposure units
• Agricultural (rainfed) sector Sorghum, millet
  and Gum Arabic
• Water sector surface water
• Human health sector malaria
• Methods and approaches
• IPCC, UNEP, USCSP etc, material used
• Climate scenario GCMs data, (Magicc/Scengen v.
  2.4).
• Impacts models (water balance, FAO, MIASMA..etc)
• Conducted by the VA team which consist of
  experts from national institutions involved in
  these sectors

8
3 Results

• The next 30 60 years
• Agriculture and forestry
• Shift in the agro ecological zones southward
• Shrinking in current crop production areas.
• Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29 -
  71 for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and
  5 - 62 for Millet
• Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline in the
  range of 25 and 30 region-wide.
• Water sector
• Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030
  and 2060 than in the baseline, due to a decline
  in projected rainfall and an increase in the
  evaporation due to temperature rise.
• Human health (Malaria)
• Increased Transmission Potential (TP) of malaria
  in 2030 and 2060, throughout the year
  particularly in winter due to higher temperatures
  .
• Greater risk of outbreaks between
  October-December
• Climate change may alter the current distribution
  and intensity of malaria in Sudan.

9
4 Limitations

• Limited expertise in modeling, long-term
  projections,
• suitability and applicability of models used for
  climate scenarios and impact models used
• Data gaps incomplete (meteorological data, crop
  productions, disease incidences), not reliable,
  not easily accessible and poorly kept and
  monitored
• Future socio-economic changes and their effects
  on the exposure are not well taken into account
  due to the lack of relevant expertise and
  methodological approaches.
• Adaptation measures not well defined and assessed
  due to lack of relevant expertise, methodological
  constraints, time and resource allocations.

10
Summary of GHG Studies in Sudan

• Sectors Covered
• Energy.
• Industrial process.
• Agriculture.
• Land use and forestry.
• Wastes.
• Greenhouse Gases Assessed
• Carbon dioxide (CO2).
• Methane (CH4).
• Nitrous Oxide (NO2).
• Sulphuric Oxide (SO2).
• Florinated Hydrocarbons HFCS.
• Carbon monoxide (CO).

11

• Sudan Emissions
• CO2 20077Gg 78.0 78.0
• CO 3280 Gg 12.7 12.7
• CH4 1985 Gg 7.7 7.1
• Others 410 Gg 1.6 1.6
• Total 25752

12
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
13
Mitigation Analysis

• The GHG mitigation analysis focused on options
  that serve both national development priorities
  and response to the UNFCCC
• Mainly energy forestry and rangeland sectors were
  covered
• Models LEAP, COMAP
• Conducted by the Mitigation team, experts from
  national institutions were involved in these
  sectors
• Limitations Data issues (availability,
  accessibility, and reliability) and Technical and
  institutional capacities

14
Towards a National Implementation Strategy

• Overall objective To promote sustainable
  development paths that improve Sudan's adaptive
  capacity and limit its growth in GHG emissions
  through integration of climate change issues and
  concerns into national policies, strategies and
  development plans.

15
Towards a National Implementation Strategy

• Specific objectives include
• To improve scientific knowledge and understanding
  of climate change and its potential consequences
  on Sudan,
• To build an enabling environment to integrate
  climate change issues and concerns into national
  development (capacity building, institutional
  infrastructure),
• To raise stakeholders awareness,
• To identify and build synergies with other
  conventions and agreements (coordination),
• To develop a national adaptation programme.
• To develop a national GHG mitigation programme.

16
Who participated in the process

• About 50 institutions including government, the
  research and academia and the civil society
  organizations participated in the process
• More than 200 experts participated in the
  scientific studies, the preparation and review of
  the SFNC
• A national climate change committee established
• 3 national teams of experts established on GHG
  inventory, Mitigation analysis and VA assessment
• Focal units is being established within relevant
  institutions to handle climate change issues

17
What is achieved

• A national climate change process has been
  established with active participation from all
  relevant stakeholders
• Awareness has been created within the
  participating institutions also among the public
  through media and public events
• Technical capacities is being built within
  relevant institutions to deal with climate change
  issues,
• Very useful partnership created with SEI_B and
• Cooperation and communication links established
  with other international institutions and parties
  

18
Suggestions on how to improve the process

• Capacity building with regard to the following
• Data management techniques
• Development and use of socio-economic scenarios
• Development of climate scenarios ( selection and
  down-scaling of GCMs)
• Use of impact models in VA assessment
• Modeling and long-term projection techniques
• Uncertainty management in GHG inventory
• Provision of technical backstopping and material
  (e.g. models and training packages).
• Establishment of joint regional programs and
  projects (e.g. GHG inventory database, impact
  assessment)
• Provisions of adequate financial resources