Sudan

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Sudan
And
Climate Change 2/9/2008 Geneva Ismail
Elgizouli ,Fredrich Ebert Foundation ,Sudan
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• Introduction
• Sudan is located in the northeastern side of
  Africa and its area is about 2.5 million square
  kilometers
• The population in the range 35-40 million
• The country is entirely depends on agriculture
  (rain-fed and irrigated farming).
• A vulnerable country in the context of climate
  change witnessed cycles of drought and floods

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Constitutions of the Republic of Sudan 2005

• With respect to the protection of the environment
  chapter 2 article 11 of the Interim National
  Constitutions of the Republic of the Sudan
  States
• The people of the Sudan shall have the right to
  clean and diverse environment the State and the
  citizen have the duty to preserve and promote the
  countrys Biodiversity.
• The State shall not purse any policy, or permit
  any action which may adversely affect the
  existence of any species of animal or vegetative
  life, their natural or adopted habitat.
• The State shall promote, through legislation,
  sustainable utilization of natural resources and
  best practices with respect to their management
  

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• Climate of Sudan
• The climate zones as shown in fig.
• vary from desert type in the north to semi
  desert in in north central parts of the country
• In the central parts semi-arid through arid to
  dry sub-humid
• Humid in the south

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SUDAN CLIMATE ZONES FOR THE PERIOD 1971-2000
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Climate change impacts can now be estimated more
systematically and for a greater range of sectors
and regions
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Dust-storm
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Floods and droughts
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• Climate Change in Sudan
• Vulnerability Adaptation Rationale in Sudan
• There is an ample evidence that climate has
  reported a clear change in the climate during the
  last three decades of the twentieth century.
• Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of
  climate change

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• The majority of its land is quite sensitive to
  changes in temperature and precipitation
• Fragile ecosystem
• Weak infrastructure and economy
• Food security is mainly determined by rainfall
• More than 70 of Sudan population is directly
  dependent on climate-sensitive resources for
  their livelihood.

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• Sectors Affected by Global Warming
• Water Sector (resources and suppliers)
• Agriculture and Natural Resources
• Biodiversity
• Health Sector (vector and epidemic diseases)
• Industrial Economy
• Political Geography (conflicts due to limitation
  in natural resources)
• Affects the future of the new generation.

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• Impacts of Global Warming on Water Resources
  Sector
• Rising in temperature will increase the rate of
  evaporation which is loss of water for
  utilization.
• Global warming will lead to climate change and
  hence accelerates the frequency of occurrence of
  the extreme climate events (drought/floods)
  tropical cyclones- dust-storms that cause the
  natural disasters.
• Decline in hydroelectric power

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• Climate change projections in milestone year
  2030 in Sudan (Kordofan Region)
• From the report of the first national
  communication of Sudan in climate change issue
  some results had been achieved in Greater
  Kordofan State as follows
• The projected temperature in 2030 varies between
  0.5 to 1C while globally it is 0.6 C. The area
  chosen considered as one of the most vulnerable
  areas and located in the heart of Sudan

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• Water resources
• Reduced groundwater recharge either through
  decreased precipitation or increased temperature
  and evaporation has grave repercussions for
  Sudan.
• National studies have shown that soil moisture
  would decline under future climate change.
• When coupled with increased water consumption,
  population growth, high variation in rainfall and
  the high rate of evaporation, a looming water
  crisis appears likely

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• Agriculture
• Combined with growing socioeconomic pressures,
  the imposition of climate variability and climate
  change is likely to intensify the ongoing process
  of desertification of arable areas.
• Humid agro climatic zones will shift southward,
  rendering areas of the North increasingly
  unsuitable for agriculture. Crop production is
  predicted to decline substantially for both
  millet and sorghum (see figure below ).
• The area of arable land as well as the important
  Gum Arabic belt would likely also decrease, with
  attendant impacts on both local incomes and food
  security would drop

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• Although, some parts in the region reflected a
  rise in precipitation, but the average annual
  rate of evapo-transpiration, shows a jump from
  2773 to 3110 mms which is almost close to 12.
  Due to rise in temp.(1-3 C)
• The population is projected to increase and this
  will be accompanied by increase in water
  consumption.
• The yield in the main cereals is expected to
  decline between 13 to 82 for sorghum and 20 to
  76 for millet from south to north of the region
• The humid zones will shift southwards.
• To conclude that, this assessment study
  generally reflects the situation in Sudan in the
  context of climate change. There is a question
  arises what will happen to the climate zones?

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• Public health
• Communities in Sudan would be exposed to
  significantly increased risk of malaria under
  climate change.
• Studies in Kordofan State, for example, have
  shown that the risk of transmission potential
  could increase substantially by 2060 (see figure
  below ).
• If realized, not only would the overburdened
  health care system experience extreme stress but
  the disease would exact a heavy toll on local
  communities

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Socioeconomic impacts

• Climate change leads to drought which implies to
• Limitation in natural resources ..conflicts
• Food security collapsefamine displaced
  people refugees .misuse of natural
  resources
• Floods .imply to migration of people from
  rural and remote areas to the cities which causes
  stress on service infrastructure spoil
  stability and security conditions
• ?Spreading of epidemic and vector diseases
  production declines consequently affects the
  GDP.

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Climate Change Socioeconomic Impacts

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Drought
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Conflicts in Darfur
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Conflicts
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Dar Fur and C.C

• In recent years, increasing drought cycles and
  the Sahara's southward expansion have created
  conflicts between nomadic and sedentary groups
  over shortages of water and land.

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Dar Fur and C.C

• The combination of decades of drought,
  desertification, and overpopulation are among the
  causes of the Darfur conflict, because the
  nomads searching for water have to take their
  livestock further south, to land mainly occupied
  by farming communities

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What did they say about Dar Fur and C. C

• ?"The blunt truth is that the lack of water and
  agricultural land is a significant contributory
  factor to the tragic conflict we see unfolding in
  Dar Fur. We should see this as a warning sign."
• The British Home Secretary Jhon Reid ,March 2006

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• Chalking the Dar Fur conflict up to climate
  change alone would be an oversimplification
• Eric Reeves ,Smith College

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• Michael Klare, a global security specialist at
  Hampshire College and author of the book Resource
  Warsargue that Darfur is part of an emerging
  pattern of resource conflict "I don't think you
  can separate climate change from population
  growth, rising consumption patterns and
  globalization... It's really one phenomenon

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• April 18, 2008 (PARIS) French President Nicolas
  Sarkozy told the worlds biggest carbon polluters
  Friday that global warming was becoming a driver
  of hunger, unrest and conflict, with the war in
  Dar Fur a concrete example

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• "In Darfur, we see this explosive mixture from
  the impact of climate change, which prompts
  emigration by increasingly impoverished people,
  which then has consequences in war," French
  President Sarkozy

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END THANK YOU