CPI in Sudan

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CPI inSudan

• UST

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What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

• the average change over time in the prices of
• consumer items .
• goods
• services
• that people buy for day to day living.
• It combines economic theory with sampling and
  other statistical techniques and uses data
  collected monthly to produce a timely measure of
  average price change.

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Cont.

• CPI provides an estimate of the price change
  between any two periods.
• The CPI follows the prices of a sample of items
  in 12 main categories of consumer spendingsuch
  as food, clothing, shelter, and medical service.

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Why is the C P I Important?
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CPI calculation

• ? PnQo
• ?PoQo

X100
Example
Items Weight Base current CPI
Dura 0.982 4.84 11.03 2.24
Dura Fetarita 1.173 3.20 8.07 2.96
Yellow maize (Dura Shami) 0.069 4.12 9.29 0.15
Millet (Dukhn) 3.314 5.59 12.08 7.16
wheat 0.864 5.77 12.34 1.85
local barley 0.012 1.07 1.53 0.02
Imported barley 0.015 1.29 1.75 0.02
Egyptian rice ( Imported ) 0.608 2.11 4.80 1.39
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Inflation rates
Month CPI 2008 CPI 2009 Inflation
January 106.0 118.0 11.2
February 106.6 118.4 11.1
March 106.6 118.2 10.9
April 109.6 119.0 8.5
May 110.7 120.5 8.9
June 115.8 127.2 9.9
July 119.4 131.2 9.8
August 122.5 135.3 10.4
September 121.0 136.6 12.9
October 118.6 133.9 12.9
November 117.8 134.9 14.5
December 116.9 132.7 13.4
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Why Update the C P I?

• Updating the CPI basket items, and their weights
  represents the current consumption patterns made
  by Sudanese households.
• The items weight is the share of total household
  expenditure on the item to total households
  expenditure on all items.

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Cont.

• Used as deflator for GDP in Services Sectors for
  example Education , Health ect.
• change the base year according to the GDP year
  using the formula
• GDP Current year
• Changed CPI

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CPI basket

• The last update of the Sudanese CPI basket items
  was in 2007 based on the HBS that conducted in
  2007. The previous basket of the CPI was based on
  1978.

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Weights

• reflects contribution to total expenditures of
  households.
• determines the impact that its price change will
  have on the overall index.

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CPI Calculation

• Laspeyres formula is used for the calculation.
• CPI basket consists of 663 items and the consumer
  basket consists of 944 items. cut of 0.005
• temporarily missing and seasonal items are
  treated by distributing their weights at the
  other items in the same expenditure group.
• Prices for fruits, vegetables, fresh meat, and
  fish food are collected on a weekly basis .other
  items are collected once a month.
• The base year is 2007 for all the 15 northern
  states.
• CPI is compiled for each state and for Sudan at
  the levels state/ urban, state/ rural, and
  state.

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CPI Structure

• Step1 Data/ Prices entry process - geographic
  areas and geographic weights.
• ? PnQo
• ?PoQo

100
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Cont.

• Step2 Calculation of relative prices and new
  weights, by dividing the current price by base
  year price. In addition, the new weight is
  calculated by multiplying the relative price by
  the base year weight .
• Step3 To compute the minor group level, new
  weights for sub-minor groups within the minor
  group are aggregated and divided by the base year
  weights . The same procedures are done to
  calculate the Index at the major group level and
  finally for the general Index.

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CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Sudan
COICOP
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Used as deflator for GDP in Services Sectors for
example Education , Health ect. change the
base year according to the GDP year using the
formula GDP Current year Changed CPI
X 100
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COICOP Code - Expenditure group
Consumption Group Sudan/ Urb Sudan/ Rur Sudan
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
01 - Food and non-alcoholic beverages 43.4 62.0 52.9
01.1 - Food 41.3 59.0 50.3
01.1.1 - Bread and cereals (ND) 8.6 13.3 11.0
01.1.2 - Meat (ND) 9.8 13.8 11.8
01.1.3 - Fish and seafood (ND) 0.8 0.4 0.6
01.1.4 - Milk, cheese and eggs (ND) 4.8 4.8 4.8
01.1.5 - Oils and fats (ND) 2.3 3.6 3.0
01.1.6 - Fruit (ND) 3.3 4.3 3.8
01.1.7 - Vegetables (ND) 6.8 11.9 9.4
01.1.8 - Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery (ND) 3.6 4.8 4.2
01.1.9 - Food products n.e.c. (ND) 1.4 2.0 1.7
01.2 - Non-alcoholic beverages 2.1 3.0 2.5
01.2.2 - Mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices (ND) 0.9 1.0 0.9
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CPI weights for the main groups and minor groups
for food
Consumption Group Sudan/ Urb Sudan/ Rur Sudan
03 - Clothing and footwear 4.2 4.9 4.5
04 - Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 18.3 10.2 14.2
05 - Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance 8.3 5.5 6.9
06 - Health 1.1 0.9 1.0
07 - Transport 9.8 6.9 8.3
08 - Communication 2.3 1.1 1.7
09 - Recreation and culture 2.7 1.8 2.2
10 - Education 3.5 2.0 2.7
12 - Miscellaneous goods and services 3.1 2.2 2.6
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CPI weights for the main groups Khartoumold
Weight
Code Description M
Code Description Weight
10000 Total Food,Drink Tobacco 0.6378
20000 Total Clothing,Shoes 0.0281
30000 Total Rent And Fuels 0.1057
40000 Total Household Opern 0.0368
50000 Total Health Care 0.0090
60000 Total Transport,Etc 0.0601
72000 Total Entertainment 0.0172
74000 Total Education 0.0146
80000 Total Miscellaneous 0.0907
000 Total Weight 1.0000
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Consumer Price Indices 2008 -2009
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Monthly Inflation Rates for Northern States
2008-2009