The United Nations MDG Strategy

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Achieving the MDGs RBA Training Workshop Module
3 MDG Needs Assessment May 9-12, 2005
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Presentation Objectives

• Discuss the purpose of MDG needs assessment in
  support of MDG-based poverty reduction
  strategies
• Outline an approach for carrying out an MDG needs
  assessment.
• Address frequent questions about needs
  assessments

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Agenda

• Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of
  an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy
• Overview of costing methodologies
• MDG needs assessment approach
• Frequently asked questions

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Motivation

• The Needs Assessment Exercise aims to flip the
  question
• FROM How close can we get to the MDGs
  under the current constraints?
• TO What will it take to achieve the MDGs?

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Approach to MDG-based poverty reduction
strategies
MDG Needs Assessmentthrough 2015
MDG-Based 10-year Framework
MDG-Based PRS

• Short-term 3-5 year strategy to launch 10-year
  strategy, including
• MTEF
• Macro framework

• Identify combination of scaled up inputs needed
  to meet MDGs
• What How Much

• Identify combination of policies and programs to
  meet needs
• How To

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What is an MDG Needs Assessment?

• Who and where are the poor?
• Identifying the population in need
• What needs to be done?
• Needs Assessment from now until 2015
• Goods, services, infrastructure
• How much will it cost and what are the human
  resource implications?
• Local unit costs x population in need
• Human resources required to meet each MDG

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Objectives of an MDG Needs Assessment

• Answer the question What would it take to
  achieve the MDGs?
• Translate the MDGs into operational targets
• Localize the MDGs
• Develop a strategy for increasing absorptive
  capacity
• Strengthen coherence between planning and budget
  processes and guide programming of expenditures
• Provide a monitoring and accountability framework
• Support the national policy dialogue and
  negotiations with development partners

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Agenda

• Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of
  an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy
• Overview of costing methodologies
• MDG needs assessment approach
• Frequently Asked Questions

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Comparing Costing Methodologies


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Comparing Costing Methodologies


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Comparing Costing Methodologies

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Agenda

• Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of
  an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy
• Overview of costing methodologies
• MDG needs assessment approach
• Frequently Asked Questions

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MDG needs assessment approach
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1. Develop List of Interventions

• Interventions are defined as investments in
  goods, services and infrastructure as distinct
  from policies and institutions
• For example, interventions include
• Infrastructure (classrooms, roads, hospitals,
  toilets, water and electric connections)
• Human resources (teachers, training staff and
  materials, administrative support)
• Goods (books, medicines, improved stoves,
  computers)
• Interventions to reduce barriers (subsidies for
  girls, microfinance, abolition of school and
  health care fees)

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Develop List of InterventionsSuggested
Investment Clusters

• Rural development increasing food output and
  rural incomes
• Urban development promoting jobs, upgrading
  slums, and developing alternatives to new slum
  formation
• Health systems ensuring universal access to
  essential health services
• Education ensuring universal primary education
  and expanded post-primary and higher education
• Gender equality investing to overcome pervasive
  gender bias
• Environment investing in improved resource
  management
• Science, technology and innovation building
  national capacities
• Cross-national infrastructure trade integration
  and government cooperation
• Public sector managementstrengthening the
  governments ability to plan and implement the
  MDG strategy
• DISCUSSION
• How do these clusters apply to your country?

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2. Specify Targets for Each Intervention
Coverage targets need to be specified for
interventions. For example

• Reduce the proportion of food insecure
  subsistence farmers by half by 2015
• Primary completion rate to reach 100 percent,
  gross enrolment rate to reach 107 percent by 2015
• Electricity for all schools and health facilities
  by 2015

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3. Estimate Resource Needs Identify the Scope of
Action
Total Hunger Needs
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3. Estimate Resource NeedsEstimate All Required
Inputs
Number of Infrastructure units needed
Direct and indirect financial costs
Number of people needed
Capacity Requirements



Total Hunger Needs
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3. Estimate Resource NeedsEstimate the Total Cost
Target Population
TOTAL COSTS
Cost components for key interventions
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3. Estimate Resource Needs-Key Assumptions

• Average unit costs used instead of marginal costs
• Inclusion of capital and operating costs
• Total costs instead of incremental costs
• Financial cost analysis (as opposed to economic
  costs)
• Different assumptions for scale-up of
  interventions from 2005-15

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4. Check ResultsSynergies Across Interventions
Interventions will have direct benefits and in
some cases will positive externalities across
sectors. These impacts should be accounted for
in the needs assessment. Examples of direct
benefits and synergies include

• Long-term sectoral synergies Maternal education
  leads to higher enrolment of children
• Immediate sectoral synergies Prevention
  interventions in health have rapid impact on
  disease incidence rates
• Cross-sectoral synergies Provision of roads
  increases access to emergency obstetric care

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4. Check Results
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Key Drivers of Cost and Variation

• The key drivers of cost and variation in a
  comprehensive country-wide needs assessment are
• Health interventions to combat infectious
  diseases and strengthen health systems
• Large-scale infrastructure interventions such as
• for roads and energy services

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Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments

• Absorptive capacity constraints are real in the
  short term, but can be gradually relaxed through
  investments in human resources, infrastructure
  and management systems
• Focus on interventions that require full or
  partial public financing
• Include capital and operating costs for all
  sectors
• Strive for maximum disaggregation
• Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions
  can be modified depending on country contexts and
  specific needs

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Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments

• Undertaken in national planning contexts
• Target setting, identification of interventions,
  unit costs done in consultative manner, reviewed
  by technical experts
• Periodic revision of targets/interventions based
  on new information and implementation of programs
  
• Methodology can be adapted to suit local
  contexts, provided basic MDG assumptions remain-
  no one-size-fits-all

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Limitations Of Needs Assessments

• Planning, not implementation tool
• Input into planning process, not a plan in itself
• A necessary, but not sufficient step for
  achieving the MDGs
• Requires complementary efforts in policy
  formulation, institutional structures, local
  decision making and regular review and monitoring

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Agenda

• Introduction to MDG needs assessment as part of
  an MDG-based poverty reduction strategy
• Overview of costing methodologies
• MDG needs assessment approach
• Frequently Asked Questions

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Frequently Asked Questions

• Why undertake an unconstrained needs assessment?
• What to do in the case of limited absorptive
  capacity?
• Dealing with Target 1 (income poverty)
• Distinguishing between policies and
  interventions.
• Synergies between interventions
• Double-counting of interventions and
  cross-cutting issues
• Macroeconomic issues (e.g. Dutch disease)

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Next Step Develop Financing Model

• Long-term (10 year) financing framework
• Share of needs that can be borne by households
• Share of needs that can be borne by domestic
  revenue mobilization (predicted to increase
  significantly over time)
• Share of needs that can be borne by debt relief
• Gap in resource needs that will need to be
  externally financed