The United Nations MDG Strategy

1
MDG Needs Assessments
2
Overview of the Millennium Project

• Mission
• To develop an operational framework that will
  allow all developing countries to meet the MDGs
  by 2015
• Structure
• Commissioned by UN Secretary-General and directed
  by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs
• Analysis performed by 10 thematically-oriented
  Task Forces
• Country level advisory work in 2004 and 2005 with
  the following pilot countries Cambodia,
  Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya,
  Senegal, and Tajikistan
• Millennium Project ends on June 30, 2005

3
Agenda

• MDG-based Poverty Reduction Strategies
• MDG Needs Assessment Methodology

4
What are the MDGs?

• Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education
• Goal 3 Promote gender equality and empower women
• Goal 4 Reduce child mortality
• Goal 5 Improve maternal health
• Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other
  diseases
• Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability
• Goal 8 Develop a Global Partnership for
  Development
• The MDGs are the first set of quantitative and
  time-bound goals shared by developing and
  developed countries

5
To Meet the MDGs We Need to Ask a New Question

• Instead of asking
• What progress can be made towards the Goals
  within the bounds of current constraints?
• We need to ask
• What policies and resources, including increased
  development assistance, are needed to meet the
  goals by 2015?

6
Principles of MDG-based Poverty Reduction
Strategies

• Typical PRS today MDG-based PRS

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The 3 Steps of Developing MDG-based Poverty
Reduction Strategies

• 1. Needs assessment through to 2015
• Identify the public investments required to meet
  the MDGs, including infrastructure, human and
  financial resources
• 2. Medium-term poverty reduction strategy for
  achieving MDGs through to 2015
• Based on results of needs assessment, develop
  medium-term (10 year) policies and strategies
  for achieving the MDGs
• 3. Short-term MDG-based GPRS
• Develop 3-year budget and policy framework based
  on the medium-term poverty reduction strategy

8
Government-UNCT-Millennium Project Collaborate to
Prepare MDG-based GPRS
Government
Sector Working Groups (including Government,
CSOs, donors and UN Country Team)
Millennium Project MDG Technical Support
Center in Nairobi
9
Representative Timeline for the Collaboration

• Spring 2004 Preparation of MDG needs assessment
• By early December 2004 Long-term MDG-based Plan
  drafted, review of needs assessment
• By June 2005 MDG-based revision of PRSP (or
  equivalent)

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Agenda

• MDG-based Poverty Reduction Strategies
• MDG Needs Assessment Methodology

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Key Sectors to be Addressed as Part of an
MDG-based PRS

• Agriculture
• Nutrition
• Education
• Gender Equality
• Child Health and Maternal Health
• HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria
• Health Systems
• Environment
• Water and Sanitation
• Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers
• Science, Technology and Innovation
• Transport infrastructure and Services
• Energy Infrastructure and Services

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What is an MDG Needs Assessment?

• Who and how many people need to be assisted in
  order to meet the MDGs?
• Identifying the population in need
• What needs to provided to meet the MDGs?
• Goods, services, infrastructure
• How much will it cost and what are the human
  resource implications?
• Local unit costspopulation in need
• Human resources required to meet each MDG

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MDG Needs Assessment Methodology
1 Develop generic list of interventions
2. Specify targets for each set of interventions
Iteratively refine estimates
3 Estimate synergies across interventions
4 Develop investment model, estimate resource
needs
5. Develop financing strategy
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Needs assessment focuses on interventions

• Interventions required coverage targets and are
  defined as investments in goods, services and
  infrastructure, e.g.
• Provision of anti-retroviral drugs
• Construction of sewers or roads
• Hiring of teachers
• They are distinct from policies and institutions
  required to deliver them, e.g.
• Property rights and land tenure regime
• Legislation against discrimination of women
• Decentralization
• Policies and institutions need to be addressed
  through medium-term policy plan and Poverty
  Reduction Strategy

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Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessment

• Absorptive capacity constraints are real in the
  short term, but can be gradually relaxed through
  targeted investments in human resources,
  infrastructure and management systems
• Focus on interventions that require full or
  partial public financing
• Include capital and operating costs for all
  sectors
• Strive for maximum disaggregation (e.g. between
  urban and rural areas or among provinces)
• Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions
  can be modified

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Financing Analysis Distinguishes Between Three
Sources of Funding

• Government Expenditures on the MDGs are
  provisionally assumed to increase by 4 percent of
  GDP from now to 2015
• Household contributions are limited by users
  ability to pay and the negative incentive effect
  of user fees in some sectors. We propose partial
  user fees for
• Some agricultural interventions
• Secondary school education
• Water and sanitation
• Energy services
• External finance is required to close the
  financing gap