Trends and Patterns in the War on Terrorism

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Trends and Patterns in the War on Terrorism

• Robert W. Taylor, Ph.D.

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Methodology for Our Discussion

• Introduction and Understanding Terrorism in
  General
• Understanding Islam in the Middle East
• Radical and Fundamental Islamic Philosophies
• Identify Trends and Patterns in Recent Bombings
  and Activities
• Thoughts on the Future

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Defining Terrorism

• International terrorism
• Transnational terrorism
• Domestic terrorism
• State terrorism

Terrorism vs. war Terrorism plays to emotion,
not intellect
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Know Your Adversary

• If you know the enemy and know yourself, you
  need not fear the results of a hundred battles.
  If you know yourself and not the enemy, for every
  victory gained, you will also suffer a defeat.
  If you know neither yourself or the enemy, you
  succumb in every battle
• Sun TzuThe Art of War

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What Is Middle-Eastern Culture?

• There in no single culture embracing the entire
  Middle East --
• It is a complex and unique cultural area

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What Is Middle-Eastern Culture?

• Depends on perspective
• To approach suspects, victims, and witnesses in
  Middle-Eastern communities
• National origin and politics
• Religious orientation
• Friendship networks and associations
• Arab, Bedouin, Mede, Turk, Asian, Pakistani,
  Iranian, North African, Sub-Saharan African?

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Middle East

• Understanding Islam

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Prophet Mohammed

• Founder of Islam, born in Mecca
• Received revelations about God (Allah) from the
  archangel Gabriel
• Wrote revelations in a series of verses and
  poems, which later became the Quran (Koran)
• Driven from Mecca to Medina, where his following
  grew
• Died in 632 and left growth of Islam to his
  followers

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Two Islamic Traditions Sunni and Shiite

• Sunni True Path of Allah strongly associated
  with Saudi Arabia The majority of Muslims in the
  world
• Shiite Leaders are descended from Mohammed
  through Fatima (daughter) and Ali (cousin)
  Shiat Ali Leaders are divinely inspired and
  infallible Strongly associated with Iran Only
  about 10 of the Muslim World

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Understand the Differences Sunni vs. Shiite

• Sheik Omar Rahman

• Veiled Shiite woman

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Understand Islam

• NOT a violent religion
• Cousin to Judaism and Christianity
• Equalizes classes through love of God
• Submission to the will of God
• Muslim is one who submits
• Understand the real meaning
• of jihad

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Five Pillars of Islam

• Five Pillars of Islam are the framework of the
  Muslim life
• Testimony of Faith (Shahada)
• Daily Prayer (Selah)
• Support of the Needy (Zakah)
• Fasting during Ramadan (Sawm)
• Pilgrimage to Mecca (Hajj)

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Pillar 1 Shahada

• The testimony of faith is saying with conviction
• La ilaha illa Allah, Muhammadur rasoolu Allah 
• There is no true god but Allah, and Muhammad is
  his Prophet 

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Pillar 2 Prayer (Selah)

• Muslims perform five prayers a day
• Each prayer does not take more than a few
  minutes
• Prayer in Islam is a direct link between the
  worshipper and Allah
• In prayer, a person feels inner happiness, peace,
  and comfort and that Allah is pleased with him or
  her
• Prayers are performed at dawn, noon,
  mid-afternoon, sunset, and night

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Pillar 3 Giving Zakah

• All things belong to Allah, and wealth is
  therefore held by human beings in trust
• The original meaning of the word zakah is both
  purification and growth 
• Giving zakah means giving a specified percentage
  of certain properties to certain classes of needy
  people (tithe)

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Pillar 4 Fasting

• Every year in the month of Ramadan, all Muslims
  fast from dawn until sundown, abstaining from
  food, drink, and sexual relations
• Fasting is regarded principally as a method of
  spiritual self-purification
• By cutting ones self off from worldly comforts,
  even for a short time, a fasting person gains
  true sympathy with those who go hungry, as well
  as achieves growth in his or her spiritual life

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Pillar 5 Pilgrimage to Mecca

• The annual pilgrimage (Hajj) to Mecca is an
  obligation (once in a lifetime) for those who are
  able to perform it
• About two million people go to Mecca each year
  from every corner of the globe
• Hajj is performed in the twelfth month of the
  Islamic calendar
• Male pilgrims wear special simple clothes that
  strip away distinctions of class and culture so
  that all stand equal before Allah

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Hajj
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Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements

• Wahhabismmovement related to Saudi
  ArabiaMuhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703-1792).
• Reform movement that believes that absolutely
  every tenant added to Islam after the third
  century of the birth of Islam is corrupted.
• Keep the original rituals and practices of Islam.
  
• Foreign interests and modernity threaten this way
  of life.

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Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements

• The Muslim Brotherhood --- movement related to
  Egypt and the scholarly tradition of Hasan
  al-Banna (1906-1949), Sayyid Qutb (1906-1966),
  Sheik Omar Rahman, and Ayman al Zawahiri (Sunni).
  
• Indigenous political-religious movement against
  European colonial powers that eroded Islamic
  culture.
• There is no middle ground only good and evil.
• Implement a new Islamic order through jihad or
  holy war primarily against corrupt Middle
  Eastern regimes and now the West.

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Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements

• Salafism movement related to Egypt and the
  writings of Muhammad Abduh (1849-1905) and
  Rashid Rida
• Emphasizes the self-sufficiency and expansiveness
  of Islam (much more tolerant than ancient
  Wahhabism)
• Modernity has value for Islam (hence, not
  necessarily anti-Western). Recognized the
  exploitation for oil.
• Today, a broad philosophy of intellectual and
  cultural undertaking, usually not political.

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Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements

• Jihadist Salafism movement of the second
  generation Salafists, radicalized in the 1980s by
  the Soviet-Afghan War
• Embraces a strict and literal interpretation of
  Islam
• Violence (jihad) is the instrument to drive out
  the West and destroy corrupt Middle Eastern
  regimes
• Charismatic leadership of Usama bin Laden
• Al-Qaeda now morphing into Southeastern Asia with
  Jemaah Islamiah and Turkey with IBDA/C

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Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements

• Khomeinismmovement of Shia Islam as the supreme
  force in the Middle East
• Non-secular, religion and government are the same
• Led by Irans Revolutionary Council
• Surging as a result of Iraqi War
• HizbAllah is Iran
• Greatly expanded drug (opium) and gun trafficking
  in Turkish and Central Asian Regions

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Islamic FundamentalismIdeology

• No separation between church and state
• Secularism leads to the marginalization of
  religion
• Secularism and modernity are inseparable
• Leading to political and moral decay
• Secularism is direct threat to Muslim identity
• Only solution is to Re-Islamasize the Muslim
  world
• Return to the ways of the old
• Common enemy is the West and ME governments
  friendly to the West

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Fundamentalism in General

• Charismatic leaders
• Usama bin Laden, Abdul Rahman, Jim Jones, David
  Koresh
• Selective interpretation of scriptures and other
  important writings
• Bible, Quoran, Old Revolutionary Writers
• Apocalyptic mission
• Misapplication of symbolic words
• Christian Patriot, constitutionalist, jihad
• God speaks to them directly, justifying violence
• Justifies the use violence due to loss of
  morality save the world

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al QaedaUsama bin Laden
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al Qaeda Leadership
Usama bin Laden ?
Ayman Al-Zawahiri ?
Mohammed Atef Dead
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al QaedaUsama bin Laden
Nairobi, Kenya, 1998

• Leadership Usama bin Laden, in 1988
• Ideology al Qaeda is a network of many different
  fundamentalist organizations in diverse
  countries
• Remember the purification movements
• Common factors are the use of terrorism for the
  attainment of their political goals and an agenda
  whose main priority is the overthrow of the
  heretic governments and the establishment of
  Islamic governments based on the rule of
  Shariah
• The Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), the fall of
  Russia, and the rise of the Mujahadeen (Holy
  Warriors) and UBL
• August 1996bin Laden issued a declaration of
  war against the Great Satan, the United States

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al QaedaUsama bin Laden (continued)

• February 1998bin Laden stated, If someone can
  kill an American soldier, it is better than
  wasting time on other matters
• 1998bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and
  Tanzaniakilled 224
• 2000suicide bombing of USS Cole in Yemenkilled
  17 sailors
• 2001suicide bombings at the World Trade Center,
  the Pentagon, and a United jet in
  Pennsylvaniakilled 2,800

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September 11, 2001
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Al QaedaNew Threats

• Morphing into other groups and areas
• Active in Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Europe
• Capitalizing on Islamic Fundamentalism
• Social and political crisis
• Drawing on revolutionary religious leaders of the
  past
• Linking with smaller Islamic Fundamentalist
  groups
• Using regional networks to continue the fight
• Commonality Trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan
• Major target acquisition and event planning
• These people are at war!

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Fundamentalism in Southeast Asia

• Jemaah Islamiya
• Bali bombingJ. W. Marriott bombing in Jakarta,
  active in the Philippines with al Qaeda
• Leadership under Abu Bakar Bashir, Khalid Sheik
  Mohammad, Riduan Ismuddin (Hambali)
• Goalestablish Islamic state across Southeast
  Asia
• Linked to Moro Islamic Liberation Front (fighting
  a guerrilla war for 25 years in Mindanao)
  (training camps)
• Poses significant new threat to Western interests
• Project Bojinka and Ramzi Youseff (1995)

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Fundamentalism in Southeast Asia

• Abu Sayyaf
• Primarily in the Philippines
• Kidnapping, rape, prostitution, and drug
  trafficking
• A bunch of thugs using Islamic Fundamentalism as
  a cover

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Review of Recent Bombings

• London bombings (July 7, 2005) killed 55, wounded
  700 in suicide attacks on transit system July 21
  unsuccessful attacks (not suicidal)
• Sharm el-Sheikh Resort in Egypt (July 23, 2005)
  suicide attack killed 90 and wounded 240 linked
  to earlier attack on Taba Resort in October 2004
  with 25 dead
• Madrid, Spain (March 11, 2004) suicide bombing of
  train station killed 190 people
• Istanbul, Turkey (November 15 and 20, 2003)
  suicide bombings of two synagogues, a
  London-based bank, and the British Consulate
  killed 62 people
• Suicide attack Bali bombing in Indonesia (October
  12, 2002) killed 202 JW Marriott bombing
• Continued activities in Iraq

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Bali Bombing (October 12, 2002)

• Killed 202 people
• Directly linked to Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu
  Sayyaf (Philippines and MILF)
• Funnel-bombing techniques
• Traded drugs for bomb materials and ammonium
  nitrate (fertilizer), not C4
• 2005Abu Bakr Bashir charged in bombing (later
  overturned)
• Bashir trained in Afghanistan, member of
  Mujahadeen (Riduan Ishmudden, aka Hambali,
  arrested in Thailand)
• Directly linked to Project BojinkaJanuary 1995?

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Istanbul Bombings (November 2003)

• Linked to IBDA/C (Great Eastern Islamic Fighters)
• Relatively small, unknown group that had tossed a
  few Molotov cocktails
• Sunni radical leadersjihadist salafist ideology
• Suicide truck bombings
• Used trucks packed with explosives (NH4NO3)
• Well-organized and internationally supplied (TNP
  suspects Iran)
• Suspect Baki Yigit trained in Afghanistan and met
  with UBL had been arrested for drug trafficking
  by the TNP
• 18 people involved, including 2 women

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Spain Bombings (March 11, 2001)

• 190 killed, over a thousand injured
• At least linked with another group(s) 12
  Moroccans arrestedone Moroccan suspect at large
  lived in Turkey and had previous connections to
  al Qaeda and IBDA/C
• Similar explosive techniques as recently seen in
  London (multiple attacks on trains)
• Large-scale attack, using multiple bombs and
  funneling
• Significant planning and multiple operatives
• The only Spaniard, Jose Suarez, traded hashish
  for at least part of the explosives
• Linked to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Jordanian al
  Qaeda member from Afghanistan camps)
• Linked to Hezb Allah (Iran) for funding

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London Bombings (July 7, 2005)

• Killed 55, wounded over 700
• Four total bombers three different trains and
  one double-decker bus
• Hassib Hussain, Mohammad Sadique Khan, Shehzar
  Tanveer, and Haroon Rashid Aswat (all Pakistani)
• Khan in NYC in 1995, traveled extensively and
  Pakistani
• Aswat (suspected mastermind) met Bin Laden in
  Afghanistan in 1995
• All were in Karachi, Pakistan, in July or April
  2004 (suspected of drug trafficking from the
  Golden Crescent)

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London Bombings (July 7, 2005) (continued)

• Hasib Hussain connected to Sheik Omar Bakri
  Mohammad and al-Mahajroun in London (Pakistani
  with deep Afghani roots)
• Mastermind fled to Egypt Majdi al Nasher
  (chemist) released by Egyptian authorities
• British officialSame signature as the Madrid
  bombings that means funnel bombings and ties
  to drugs for trade for explosives

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London Bombing (July 21, 2005)

• Copycat attack
• 7 arrested, including 4 East Africans from London
  (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia)
• Bombs failed not the same substance or device
  types as previous bombings
• Not suicidal attacks
• Probably more connected with internal London
  issues than global terrorism

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Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt (July 23, 2005)

• Suicide bombing (truck driven into hotel, very
  similar to Istanbul bombing 90 dead, 240 injured
  in three separate attacks (two by truck and one
  in a sack at a bus station)
• Two identified bombersMohammad Badran Hanafi
  from the Tawhid and Jihad Group (old Salafi group
  linked to Bin Laden through the Egyptian Muslim
  Brotherhood) and Mohammad Saleh Fleifel
  (Pakistani with forged passports)
• Connected to Taba Resort bombing in October
  200425 dead Suleiman Fleifal was one of two
  suicide bombers
• Fleifal brothers were in Afghanistan in the 1990s

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Activities in Iraq

• The Peace Process and withdrawal of U.S. troops
  (actually increasing through 2006 with 135,000
  troops)
• A Federated State
• Understand the linkage between HezbAllah and
  Iran
• 62 of population in Iraq is Shiite
• Al-Sistani wisdom via Abu Bakir Bashir in Kum,
  Iran be patient!
• Increase in bombing activities (NH4NO3)

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Commonalities

• By method of operation and tacticsmultiple
  attacks and most are sophisticated suicidal
  attacks
• By financing from viable ME countries or groups
  (Iran and HezbAllahDRUG CONNECTION)
• By radical Islamic philosophy (Sunni and Shiite)
• Many are members of the original Mujahadeen in
  Afghanistan, or at least trained in Afghani camps
  (remember Ahmed Ressam)
• Stepped-up activity because of Iraq
• All connected to UBL and al Qaeda for leadership
  during the same period of timewhat is al Qaeda
  now?

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The New al Qaeda

• The imperative of individual jihad fused with
  collective revenge for Americas perceived
  global war on Islam. Enemy is the West and
  Middle East puppet governments
• Expansion presented by the occupation of Iraqwin
  the war lost in Afghanistan
• Sunni-Shiite collaboration
• Competent and determined leadership cadre with
  adequate finances (drugs, human, and arms
  dealing)
• Growth through new Islamic alliances and
  recruitment of youth, again fueled by Iraq War
  (e.g., Southeast Asia, Colombia, Central Asian
  Republics)
• A remarkably nimble, flexible, and adaptive
  entity

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New Trends in Financing

• Drug trafficking
• Golden Crescent routes and changes
• Golden Crescent now produces 92 of the worlds
  opium (since the Karzai government)
• Changes from heroin to meth (Operation Mountain
  Express2003)
• Linkages to HezbAllah
• Changes in Malaysia (potential link w/Thailand
  via smuggling)
• Designer drugs e.g. ecstasy, yaya pills,
• Other smuggling
• Linkages with FARC and other Latin American
  Marxist groups
• Linkages with organized crime cartels

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New Trends in Financing (continued)

• Human trafficking
• Middle East (Afghanistan and Central Asian
  Republics)
• Linked with organized crimeRussian Vory
• Cambodia, and Philippines
• Linked with madrasas in Southeast Asia (children)
• Linked with organized crimeYakuza
• A word about Abu Sayyaf
• Kidnapping and extortion
• Links to HezbAllah
• Links to FARC and ELN

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New Trends in Financing (continued)

• Credit card and passport fraud
• Contraband smuggling and trafficking
• Baby aspirin and formula, cigarettes, etc.
• Gold, diamonds, and other commodities
• Hawalas (secret transferring and funding of
  moneyprimarily gold (commodities)
• Charities fraud (like Holy Land Foundation and
  HAMAS)
• Often linked through Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Again, Shiite and Sunni cooperation

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New Trends in Financing (continued)

• Arms trafficking
• Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics
• Chechnyans and, again, connected via Russian mob
  (Vory)
• Southeast Asia
• From Somalia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and other
  destabilized countries
• FARC and ELN

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Potential Trends for Future Consideration

• Potential attacks involving Southeast Asia (lets
  talk about it?)
• Very active in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the
  Philippines
• Instability of Southern Thailand..what to do?
• The Middle East is too hotorganizations are in
  disarray and leadership is on the run! Where
  might they go?
• Jemaah Islamiyah, Hambali, Ramsi Youseff, and
  Project Bojinka (the new Kingdom of Islam) have
  historical linkages with Southeast Asia
• Porous U.S. border and rise in OTMs from Mexico
• Drug, human, and arms trafficking and linkages to
  US

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Potential Trends for Future Consideration
(continued)

• Target selection
• Virtually unlimited target acquisition and
  potential inside the United States
• Embassies still major targets
• Friendly countries
• Major symbolic targets in New York Washington,
  DC Chicago and maybe Los Angeles are still the
  major hit areas
• Transit and transportation locations
• They know they can hurt us here again
• Potential for WMD ???

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Final Thoughts on the Future

• International connectivity of groups, especially
  along the lines of drug, human, and arms
  trafficking (financing)
• Increased radical factionalism and religious
  extremism
• This is not crime it is war! Our criminal
  justice systems may be ill-equipped to handle
  such low-level conflict.how do we handle
  properly handle these types of situations???
• We must understand the changing dynamics of
  terrorism
• Continue to build strong partnerships between
  countries like the U.S. and Thailand
• Never give up on diplomacy!

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Thank You!

• Robert W. Taylor, Ph.D.
• Professor and Chair
• Department of Criminal Justice
• University of North Texas
• Post Office Box 305130
• Denton, Texas 76203-5130
• Phone [phone]
• FAX [phone]
• Email rtaylor_at_scs.unt.edu