National Urban Transformation Training Urban Trends

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National Urban Transformation TrainingUrban
Trends

• Rev. Dr. J.N. Manokaran,
• Managing Director
• TOPIC-India

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Global crisis
• Market melt down
• New American president
• Terrorism
• WORLD IS HOT, FLAT AND CROWDED
• Energy crisis and Environment

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• World Densest cities The list is 1 Mumbai
  (29650 per sq. km) 2 Kolkata (29650) 3 Karachi
  (18900) 4 Lagos (18150) 5. Shenzhen (17150)
  6. Seoul (16700) 7. Taipei (15200) 8. Chennai
  (14350) 9. Bagata (13500) 10. Shangai (13400)
  11. Lima (11750) 12. Beijing (11500) 13 Delhi
  (11050) 14. Kinsaha (10650) 15. Manila (10550)
  16. Tehran (10550) 17. Jakarta (10500) 18.
  Tianjin (10500) 19. Bangalore (10100) 20. Ho
  Chi Minh (9450).

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Indian cities
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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 1 Humanity moving to cities, towns
• Half of worlds people will live in urban areas
• 70 per cent will be city dwellers by 2050 there
  will be 27 megacities with at least 10 million
  population by mid century compared to 19 today
• Half the urban growth will be in the many smaller
  cities with less than 500000 people.
• The population is also projected to increase from
  6.7 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• There were 50.3 million urban households in the
  country in 2000 this rose to 61.5 million in
  2005.
• Six metros Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata,
  Bangalore and Hyderabad
• Eight mini-metros, Ludhiana, Bhubaneswar, Pune,
  Kochi, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Patna and Lucknow.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Tamil Nadu the most urbanised State
• 44 per cent of people of Tamil Nadu were living
  in urban areas.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Bangalored or Gangtoked?
• Leaders Bangalore - Bangalore, National Capital
  Region of Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai
  and Kolkata.
• The Challengers Ahmedabad, Bhuvaneswar,
  Chandigarh, Chombatore, Indore, Jaipur, Kochi,
  Lucknow, Madurai, Mangalore, Nagpur,
  Thiruvananthapuram, Tiruchirapalli, Vadodara, and
  Vishakapatnam.
• The followers Aurangabad, Bhopal, Goa, Gwalior,
  Hubli-Dharwad, Kanpur, Mysore, Nashik,
  Pondicherry, Salem, Surat, Vijayawada, and
  Varanasi.
• The Aspirants Allahabad, Dehradun, Durgapur,
  Gangtok, Guwahati, Ludhiana, Patna, Raipur,
  Ranchi, Shimla, Siliguri, and Srinagar.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Indias Top 25 emerging markets Kannur,
  kerala Kolhapur, Maharashtra Thirissur, Kerala
  Erode, Tamil Nadu Puducherry Alappuzha, Kerala
  Patiala, Punjab Ahmednagar, Maharashtra Sangli,
  Maharashtra Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu Kollam,
  Kerala Gurudaspur Punjab Sangrur, Punjab
  Panipat, Haryana Yamunanagar, Haryana Ambala,
  Haryana Shimoga, Karnataka Rohtak, Haryana
  Palakkad, Kerala Kottayam, Kerala Karnal,
  Haryana Shimla, Himachal Pradesh Rupnagar,
  Punjab Theni, Tamil Nadu and Namakkal, Tamil
  Nadu.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Best Cities for Business The top cities are 1.
  Mumbai, 2. Bangalore, 3. Delhi, 4. Chennai, 5.
  Hyderabad, 6. Kolkata, 7. Ahmedabad, 8. Pune,
  (called Mega cities) 9. Surat and 10. Kanpur,
  11. Jaipur, 12. Lucknow, 13. Nagpur, 14.
  Bhopal, 15. Coimbatore, (Called Boom towns) 16.
  Faridabad, 17. Amritsar, 18. Ludhiana, 19.
  Chandigarh, and 20. Jalandhar. (Called Niche
  cities) (Business Today, 7 September 2008, p.
  70-120)

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• 50 cities seen as hub of retail space boom The
  top 15 cities in the list will contribute more
  than 80 per cent of the total national retail
  business by 2008. Delhi-NCR and Mumbai belong to
  the maturing category.
• Transitional cities include Bangalore, Kolkata,
  Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and Ahmedabad.
• Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Kochi,
  Surat and Vadodara belong to the third category
  of high-growth cities.
• Emerging cities Ludiana, Coching, Nagpur,
  Indore, Nasik, Bhubaneshwar, Vizag, Coimbatore,
  Mangalore, Mysore and Thiruvananthapuram The
  category also includes tourist destinations like
  Amritsar, Agra and Goa.
• Cities where both income levels and corporate
  activities are limited Patna, Bhopal, Meerut,
  Asansol, Varanasi, Kolhapur and Sonepat are
  termed as nascent.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Cities are New Mission Frontiers
• Pastors, missionaries, church planters moving
  into cities
• New biblical understanding about cities

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 2 Disparity in the cities increasing
• Hex and the city According to the UN report on
  State of the Worlds Cities, 2008-2009 Indian
  cities will witness rising levels of inequality
• Rich earn four times more than the poorest.
• One of every three people in cities live in
  slums.
• Poor - 200000 ragpickers clean up 20 per cent of
  the 10000 tonnes of garbage in Delhi
• 1 lakh pavement dwellers in Mumbai
• Two third of the population lives in slums.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Slums increasing
• Unemployed poor increasing
• White Tiger? How many read this book?
• Holistic Missions Self Help Groups, Community
  Colleges, Micro-finances

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 3 Migration an important aspect
• Human Highways The 2001 Census
• 9 million migrated from Uttar Pradesh, 5.5
  million migrated from Bihar.
• In the State of Maharastra, UP and Bihar migrants
  are 5 million of the total population of 96.9
  million.
• In Mumbai (14 million), 4 million are migrants
  from UP and Bihar
• Child labour migrants Of all migrants in Mumbai
  city, 22 per cent are child labourers. (The Week
  14 January 2007, p.6)
• Delhi (13 million), where UP-Bihar migrants are
  3.8 million.
• Punjab (24 million) -4 million UP-Bihar migrants
  there.
• Assam- (26 million) - 300000 from UP-Bihar have
  migrated there.
• 100000 UP-Bihar migrants in Karnataka (52
  million)
• In Bangalore only 34of the citys 6 million is
  Kannadigas.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Reaching Migrants families
• Reaching students in the hostels
• Reaching other language groups in the city
• Models Nepalis, Sindhis etc.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 4 Direction of migration keeps changing
• Migration to city from south falling
• The declining number of south Indian migrants
  into Mumbai city is visible in all places like
  Antop Hill, Matunga, Chembur, Mulund and Dombivli
  .
• Southern migrants have been replaced by migrants
  from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar who are making their
  way to Mumbai in ever-increasing numbers,
  propelled by the support system provided by
  friends and relatives already in the city.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Understand the winds of change in migration
  pattern
• Move where people move
• Example Orissa persecution 5000 people moved
  into Ernakulam. Plant Oriya church in Ernakulam

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 5 Children are vulnerable in cities
• Street kids -25000 child bonded labour in Mumbai
• Elite kids - 10-18 years is vulnerable to mental
  health disorder AIIMS study
• Urban children not getting enough sleep
• Training emotional gun on parents suicide for
  not purchasing new dress, etc

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• New Strategies for reaching children
• Camps, Games
• Internet based outreach material
• Magazines, books, cartoons

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 6 Teenagers and Young are rudderless
• Young - 340 million (13-35 age)
• 17 per cent of the 1.4 million teenage abortions
  that take place every year in the developing
  countries happen in India. More specifically, of
  the approximately 2.45 lakh teenage abortions
  reported in India every year, 36700 happen in
  Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• New youth strategies. How do you understand
  modern and post modern youth?
• Chetan Bhagat books?????
• Reaching Post modern youth
• Reaching Unemployed youth

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 7 Women are oppressed in the city
• Women crime against women
• 540 rapes in 2004, 640 in 2005 in Delhi
• Dowry deaths urban phenomenon -50
• University students in Delhi favour dowry
• - Domestic violence

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Women ministries?
• New Initiatives?
• New tools?
• Marrying Anita Anita Jain????????

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 8 Family in crisis in the city
• Divorces 2 divorces for every 5 marriages in
  Chennai
• Live-in-relationships
• Extra Marital affairs - 12 of married couples
  below 30 years indulge in extramarital affair
• a high 35 per cent being open to an office
  romance
• A third surveyed saw no harm in romancing a
  married colleague, while 44 - an affair as
  strategic move to climb the corporate ladder.
• Gays/Lesbianism/AIDS/HIV - 5.1 million people
  affected
• Working parents have just 30 minutes for kids in
  India

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• In India, men unable to keep pace with womens
  changing role Four out of five Indian men said
  they have been part of a group that has made lewd
  comments to women. Thats according to a recent
  Hindustan Times survey of 500 men in the age of
  20 to 45 from six Indias largest cities. Nearly
  half the men surveyed felt women at a pub are
  asking for trouble. Around 60 of them
  preferred stay-at-home wives.
• For every five men, there is one woman who works
  in an income-generating activity.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Family counselling
• Premarital counselling
• Chennai Transformation Network Family Track
  Model

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 9 Economic growth and more jobs
• Unemployment in major cities declines survey
  Here are some highlights of the 61st National
  Sample Survey. The unemployment rate has declined
  from 4.4 to 3.4 in Class I cities of India.
  Class I cities have population over one million,
  Class II population between 50000 and 1
  million, Class III with less than 50000. The
  unemployment rate in rural India stands at 2.1
  for males and 3.1 for females.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Market economy and money economy has two
  different paradigms
• Inflation
• Global Boom and Global Gloom

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 10 Ideology politics to Identity politics
• Closure of industries no trade unions
• Slum lords
• Sons of soil
• Right wing

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Mumbai
• Assam
• Bangalore
• Unrest, violence

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 11 New Urban Spirituality
• New kind of spirituality
• Increase in spiritual quest
• 95 believe in God. 89 believe in the power
  of prayer
• Top five spiritual idols are Vinayaka,
  Shiva, Krishna, Sai Baba and Jesus.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Youngsters are more open to spiritual things
  but how do they define spirituality
• New strategies, tools needed

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 12 Postmodernism gaining ground
• Post modernism compatible with Hindutva
• Modernism is being replaced by Postmodernism

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Using Modernism tools to Postmodernism society
  will be a failure
• What are Postmodern tools for evangelism?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 13 Crisis of urban identity
• Identity self preservation caste, culture
  and language
• Identity in free market economy- consumerism
  capacity to consume
• Not the capacity to contribute but the capacity
  to consume

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Should capacity to consume determine a persons
  worth and identity?
• What are the alternatives?
• How should that be communicated?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 14 Lifestyle diseases
• 'Indian workforce unhealthy'
• 47 of the workforce overweight
• 27 were suffering from hypertension
• 10 were also found to be diabetic. (35 million
  diabetic in India)
• 50 per cent of Delhi adults are obese
• Stress and Suicides Bangalore is suicide
  capital
• Suicides kill more people than war every year

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Eye campsetc. Good to reach urban poor
• Fitness Camps, Diet Camps, Heart diseases
  check up camps
• Free Gyms in churches for low middle class young
  people?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 15 Health hazard
• Cities are vulnerable Dengue, Chikangunya
• Pollution -12 Hyderabad city drinks water
  -excess uranium
• Air pollution, Noise pollution and water pollution

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Can church be a model?
• Environment friendly strategies?
• Water Harvesting in Chennai?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 16 Technology invades the city
• Media FM radio, Internet..
• 38 million Internet users 3.1 million Broad
  band (Internet is information tool for old,
  relationship tool for youngsters)
• Mobile phones 250 plus million phones
• Cyber cafes India is 250000.
• Indians world's third biggest online shoppers
  next only to the Turkish and Irish e-shoppers.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Harness technology for missions
• Blogs, scraps, walls.what not?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 17 Violence in the city
• School children using guns to settle disputes
• Kidnap and killing of teenagers by friends
• Road rage
• Sudden Provocation

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• How can the church respond?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 18 Victim of terrorism
• Cities are targets for terrorist attacks
• Special insurance against terrorist attack has
  gained market
• Islam and Hinduism religions used for terrorism
  Malegaon blasts
• Naxalites - terror

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Voice for peace and reconciliation

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 19 Right wing ideology inroads in city
• Saffron Techies In Bengalure alone, there are
  46 IT milans located in different residential
  areas.
• A special door-to-door fundraising drive held in
  Bengaluru over a month in 2007 reportedly raised
  Rs. 20 lakh for the Vanavasi Kalyan Kendra, a
  Sangh organization that deal with tribal welfare
  activities.
• IT milans in Bengalure are working towards a
  Sanskrit camp that will be held in the month of
  November 2008 where 2000 are expected.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Encourage Christian professionals to be engaged
  in their own contexts
• Educate, train and provide tools for them to work
  in their work places

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Trend 20 Entertainment, leisure, eating out
• Malls, theme parks, restaurants, increased
• 4 theme parks, 50 lakh visitors Four theme parks
  in Chennai are dishing out thrills and spills for
  action hungry citizens of Chennai who seem to
  want only more.

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Response
• Gospel Entertainment ?
• Discipleship Entertainment ?

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National Urban Transformation Training- Urban
Trends

• Global Urban Vision Monthly newsletters
• Send e-mail to jnmanokaran_at_yahoo.com