STATISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN THE CIS COUNTRIES

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STATISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN THE
CIS COUNTRIES
Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State Lomonosov
University
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Overview

• CIS-1991-2006 15 years of collecting
  statistics under new conditions
• 2. Functions and responsibilities of
• administrative and
• national statistical bodies in migration
  statistics collection
• 3. Towards population registers- a better future
  or new problems?
• 4. Concluding remarks problems and possible
  solutions

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• a number of countries (including major
  countries , such as the former USSR) have no
  statistics whatsoever..
• they are mostly low-immigration countries
• (Tapinos George. Can one really talk of the
  globalization of migration flows? In
  Globalization, migration and development. OECD,
  2000.)

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CIS 1991-2006 Data collection in
transformation

• 12 more countries with incomparable statistics
• New institutes and bodies, responsible for new
  flows regulation and new data collection.
  Redistribution of responsibilities (problems of
  interaction)
• Necessity in new systems of data collection to
  register and measure new trends in
  international migration processes (refugees,
  forced migrants, labour migrants, new
  foreigners (former compatriots )
• New legislation freedom for move,
  international migration, status of foreigners,
  citizenship, refugees, labour migration,
  registration and data collection (Laws ans
  derivative acts)
• Revision of previous system of population
  registration Georgia, Moldova, other countries.
  Less control, 2 types of registration place
  of stay or residence (Armeina factual
  residence).
• Technical progress new possibilities in data
  collection and processing (background for
  population registers establishment)
• Access to data that were not available earlier
• Changes in Censuses-2000 questionnaire
• Targeted sample surveys (in some of the CIS
  countries) to investigate new problems

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Migration related data in the CIS countries
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Data collected by National Statistical
Institutes similarities and peculiarities,common
background different future

• Current (annual) statistics of flows
• (Except Georgia and Moldova)
• Similar paper carriers received from police or
  Min. of Justice agencies
• Different criterion of migrant identification
• Similar low coverage and quality
• Censuses programs difference in migration
  related issues- special questions to measure
  labour out-migration, forced migration, etc .
  Migrant stock definitions if the foreign born
  criteria works?
• Surveys (households, labour force Especially
  Tajikistan, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia)
• Other data (Received from administrative
  authorities for processing and/or publication-
  refugees, labour migrants, etc.)

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Principles of current migration statistics
formation in the NSIs (except Georgia and
Moldova)

• In the USSR since 1930-ies till 1991 - one
  type of population registration (in a place of
  residence) time criteria
• 45 days for the USSR citizens,
• 90 days for foreigners
• primary statisitcsl forms are to be filled in
  and forwarded to regional departments of Central
  statistical
• division . 2 types of forms arrivals and
  departures
• Now forms are collected for migrants
  registered in a place of residence, but as a rule
  there is no time criteria (except Kazakhstan and
  Ukraine 6 months)

POLICE (or ministry of justice agencies in
some of the CIS countries)
NSI
Input, processing, publication
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Primary form for statistical registration of a
migrant (RF)
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Address form of arrival /departure used for
police registration proceduresUkraine uses
police form with limited number of variables

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Some definitions of place of residence and
criteria used for statistics collection (may
differ for nationals and foreigners) Importance
of details.
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Case of the RF1995 New rules of RF citizens
registration and collection of statistics of
migration(both internal and international)

• Registration in a Place of stay (No time limit of
  stay, number of registrations is unlimited!)
• primary statistical forms should not be filed in

• Registration in a place of residence
• Primary statistical from to be filled in

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Arrivals in and departures from the Russian
Federation (including migration to and from the
former USSR republics). 1971-2005, persons.
Rosstat data. Changes in rules of data collection
the basic reason for inflow decline
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Immigration to the RF (citizenship composition)
Rosstat data. Data on foreigners result of
inaccuracy in data collection (according to the
law no data on foreigners should be collected for
Rosstat)
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Residence permits issued by the RF migration
service and international migrants observed by
Rosstat. Uncertainty of methodology and criteria.
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Coverage of current statistics of flows
inaccuracy in registration and deregistration

• No strict control over / or strong stimulus
  for both
• Registration in better than deregistration
• Deregistration stimuli based on necessity to
  sell the dwelling
• (Practice in administrative sources a person
  is deregistered by registration period expiry)
• Consulates partially collect information about
  emigrants

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Deregistration in the country of origin
requirement in 29 selected countries (RF MFA
information)8- need, 21-does not need
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Comparison of data on international migration
between RF and selected CIS countries. 2005, CIS
Statistics Committee data
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SurveysTo measure processes that could not be
measured with the help of the other sources

• Labour force and employment (some of the CIS
  countries conduct such surveys, but not all
  include migration related questions)
• Households (in all the countries, but not all
  include migration related questions into the
  program. Moldova, Armenia, Tajikistan conduct
  targeted migration surveys)
• At the borders (Tajikistan, Georgia)

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Administrative and other sources (Is it a
possible alternative to poor NSI-s data?)

• Data collected at the borders (incorrect
  interpretation)
• Work permits /or employed foreign labour force
  .(visible part of an iceberg)
• Visa issued abroad, in the country (not
  available)
• Residence permits (temporary, permanent) (double
  count if a year of status acquisition is not
  defined)
• Data on citizenship acquisition (hardly
  available)
• Registration of population in the place of stay
  or residence (procedures rather than persons)

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Statistics collected at the borders problems
of interpretation

• Main problem underestimation of foreigners that
  
• do not need visa
• travel by train (no immediate access to the
  database)
• Lack of regular or available information tempts
  to use any source that is available
• Unprofessional interpretation or political
  considerations?
• Ukrainian and RF authorities interpretations of
  the border statistics
• residual between entries and exits is considered
  to be illegal net migration, when multiplied by
• several years shows hundreds of thousand or even
  millions of illegal migrants stock.
• Consequences increase in xenophobia and social
  instability
• Migration cards good alternative or temporary
  (desperate) remedy? (RF, Kazakhstan, Ukraine,
  Tajikistan, Moldova, Belarus )

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Ukrainian and RF authorities interpretations of
the border statistics residual between entries
and exits is considered to be illegal net
migration

• Ukraine In 2002-2006 there were more than 34
  000 000 entries of foreigners to Ukraine
• Did not leave from Ukrainian territory -
• 123 140 from the countries-main suppliers of
  irregular migrants -
• (web-site of Migration affairs Committee )

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Migration cards (RF and Kazakhstan patterns)
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Administrative data on registration of the RF
nationals in the place of residence -
Registration of procedures rather than
individuals . Blue curve shows registration of
new passports during the passport change campaign
in 2001-2003, although the title of the table
is as follows Number of registrations of place
of residence
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Consequences of poor quality or lack in
availability of statistics

• Impossibility to measure basic parameters of
  national economies
• Labour force
• Employment
• GNDP
• National accounts
• Without reliable statistics of international
  migration policy-makers do not have way marks
  for adequate decisions in the sphere of migration
  policy
• Use of defective statistics makes migration
  policy risky, costly and inefficient
• Society does not have adequate information and
  public opinion may not correspond with real
  processes

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Population registers in CIS great opportunities
for population statistics or new problems?

• From paper forms and catalogues - towards e-data
  bases and from hand work towards new
  technologies basic challenges
• Staff qualification
• Equipment maintenance (case of RF)
• Individual data protection
• Limited number of variables
• Centralized or decentralized?
• Besides Moldova other countries also have
• some experience in DB creation passport
  change campaign in RF and Ukraine, Foreign
  population Data bank in RF, etc.

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Variables to be collected in the RF foreign
population register

• Full name
• Date and place of birth
• Sex
• Citizenship
• Purpose of arrival
• Profession
• Period of intended stay
• Previous registration of a place of residence
  (address and date of reg. and deregistration)
• Previous registration of a place of stay (address
  and date of reg. and deregistration)
• Reference persons data in the RF (parents,
  adopters, guardians)
• Deportation data (if there was)
• Decision on deportation
• Info on law violence in the RF
• Data and place of death in the RF
• Reason for registration

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Processing and publication sharing of
responsibilities between administrative bodies
and NSI s

• Variety of data to be published
• Access free or chargeable, to individuals or
  legal entities, etc.
• National statistical institutes are more likely
  to publish data that administrative authorities
  are
• No data on residence permits, visas, citizenship
  acquisition etc.
• No or poor information in the web-sites of NSI
  s and Immigration authorities (even if they have
  a web-site)

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Foreign citizens registration data bank(Planned
to be created by January 2006), Responsible
authority Federal Migration service

• Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data)
• Migration cards information on arrivals and
  departures of foreigners
• Data on refugees and asylum seekers
• Labour migrants data (work permits data)
• Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data)
• Residence permits, temporary residence permits
  and stay permits
• Information on crimes committed against
  foreigners and by foreigners
• Stage 3 (other ministries data)
• Federal border service data
• Visas and invitations statistics
• Customs Committee data
• Ministry of taxes data
• Other ministries and authorities data on
  foreigners
• Stage 4
• Information exchange and distribution (rules are
  not defined)

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• Concluding remarks1
• Management (almost everywhere) frequent
  redistribution of responsibilities and reshuffle
  of administrative authorities inevitably causes
  problems in capacity building (new staff to be
  trained, data bases to be shared, etc.)
• Quality not ideal almost everywhere,
  especially data on flows
• Availability better access to NSI s data
  problematic to administrative data
  Underdevelopment of certain tools of data
  collection (registration - surveys)
• Data exchange if only IOM is interested in the
  process?
• ! All recommendations are addressed to a National
  Statistical Institute, but as a rule other
  bodies are decision makers in the sphere of
  registration and data collection
• Coordination in statistics harmonization is it
  necessary, possible and who could be a
  coordinator?

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Concluding remarks 2

• In spite of obvious problems and a certain
  centrifugal trends in international
  policies in the CIS countries, there are still
  strong economic considerations to manage
  migration process and labour market
  development in the area of the CIS countries
  together
• It is one more argument to revise national
  systems of international migration statistics
  collection, to discuss common problems and to
  look for solutions that could be advantageous for
  everybody.

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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Additional information
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Foreign born population in selected CIS
countries/ period of migration (before the
break-up of the USSR migration occurred within
the same country)
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Main categories for migrant stock identification
in selected CIS countries. Censuses 2000 round
data

1 including 580 persons that did not specify
place of birth
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Visa statistics availability is the basic
problem

• Two ways of application for visa (as a rule) MFA
  and MOI
• MFA data not available
• MOI data better availability (application and
  registration of foreigners)
• Basic problem underestimation of migrants that
  do not need visa
• (purposes for move asked in migration cards do
  not coincide with types of visa) -

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Labour migration data

• Overall problem considerable underestimation
  of in and outflows (and stocks as well )
• Double citizenship- problems of labour migration
  underestimation
• Irregular component in foreign workers stock
  is possibly 5-10 times more numerous
• (RF- quota for 2007 6000000 workers (that do
  not need visa),
• gt300000
  that need visa)
• Number of emigrant-workers is unknown
• Tajikistan quite a few percents of
  out-migrants are employed legally,
• The Russian Federation in 2005 only 60.000
  labour out-migrants were recruited by licensed
  agencies within the country for work abroad.
• Number of work permits foreign workers?
• Period of work is often not defined
• Remittances

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Residence permits and temporary migrants
registration, status

• Differences in legislation differences in
  definitions ( temporary and permanent residence
  permits , difficulties in application of the UN
  12 months criteria)
• 90-days period
• Extension of stay
• Types of visa
• private
• business
• tourism
• study
• job
• scientific, cultural, sports, religion contacts

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Immigration to the RF
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