PS 142 War and Peace

1
PS 142War and Peace

• Lecture 19
• Cuban Missile Crisis (Part II)

2
The Soviet Side

• US behavior explained well by Graham Allisons
  rational actor model
• Key to understanding outcome of the crisis is the
  Soviet decision to back down?
• Kennedy administration response is viewed as
  ideal model of successful coercive bargaining
• Why did it work?

3
Alexander George and Kennedys Success

• Emphasizes limited nature of Kennedys strategy
• Limited Goals
• Missiles, not Castro
• Limited Means
• No use of force (i.e. Air Strike)
• Conveys resolve with face saving measures
• Recalls Huth and Leng on TFT, FBF and reciprocity

4
Were Kennedys Aims Limited?

• True that his aims are not as unlimited as
  possible
• No demand that Castro be removed
• But aims with regard to missiles are absolute and
  unequal
• (e.g. US missiles in Turkey)
• NO offers of compromise (i.e. Firm-but-Flexible)
  on this goal

5
Were Kennedys Means Limited?

• Rhetoric was extremely strong
• RFK threatens nuclear war
• US makes no substantive concessions
• No Invasion pledge is a fig leaf
• US no intention to invade if there are no
  missiles
• US rejects exchange of missiles in Turkey that it
  does not even want
• JFK strategy best described as bullying

6
Why Did Bullying Succeed?

• US local military superiority in the Caribbean?
• US had unquestioned advantage in Western
  Hemisphere
• USSR had little ability to project power outside
  Europe and Asia
• But, USSR could easily retaliate in Berlin
• Soviet capability similarly unmatched there

7
Why Did Bullying Succeed?

• US had substantial nuclear superiority over the
  USSR
• US would be damaged by a nuclear exchange, but
  the USSR would be entirely destroyed
• Available evidence from Soviet side suggests they
  knew and feared this

8
What Lessons Can We Learn?

• Is Kennedys strategy a model for crisis
  bargaining?
• Not generally
• Success depended on massive US nuclear
  superiority
• USSR clearly has chicken preferences
• Outside that context, bullying less likely to work

9
Did Kennedy Do the Right Thing?

• Was the victory worth the risks?
• What did the US gain?
• Why was that important?
• What do you think?