Population Growth and the Demographic Transition

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Population Growth and the Demographic
Transition(?????????)

• Ian RH Rockett,PhD,MPH
• Professor and Associate Chair Department of
  Community Medicine West Virginia University
• PO Box 9190
• Morgantown,WV 26506-9190
• USA
• irockett_at_hsc.wvu.edu
• ????

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• 1)??????????????????
• 2) ?????????,???,????????????
• 3) ?????????

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• 1)??????????
• 2) ???????????????????
• 3)???????????????

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?????

• ????????????
• ??????????????demos(?)???????,????????,?????

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?????????????????????????????????
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?21???,???????60????????????200?????
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??1 ??????
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?????????????????????????????????????70???????????

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70??

• ????????1???????,????????70??????????????2,?????
  ??????35?

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T.R. Malthus, 1766-1834

• ????,??? ??? ????, ????????????????????????????
  ???????(???????)??

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???????1798?????????,??????????????????(????),????
????????
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???????

• ????(??)
• 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
• ????(??)
• 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512

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?????????????????????????????????????????
--??????????
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???????????

• ???? ????
• ?? (1) ??
• (2) ???????
• (??????,??????????????????????????)

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????

• ??????????,?????????????????????
• 1800???10?
• ?20?????60?

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• ????????????????(??????)?
• ?????????????????????????

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• ?20?????,????????????????

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• ????????????????????(?????)?????????????

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???????

• ???????(CDR)
• ??????????k
• ????

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• ???????(CBR)
• ??????????k
• ????
• ???????CBR-CDR

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??2 ????
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(1) ?? (2) ??
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(3) ?? (4) ??
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??3 ??/????????