WHAT A PHYSICIST CAN SAY ABOUT GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH

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WHAT A PHYSICIST CAN SAY ABOUT GLOBAL
POPULATION GROWTH

• Sergey P. Kapitza
• Institute for Physical Problems
• Russian Academy of Science, Moscow

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WORLD POPULATION FROM 2000 BC TO 3000 AD1 --
DATA OF BIRABEN, 2 -- BLOW-UP, 3 --
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, 4 -- STABILIZED
POPULATION, 5 --ANCIENT WORLD, 6--MIDDLE
AGES,7--MODERNITY, 8--RECENT HISTORY
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• PASSAGE THROUGH THE POPULATION TRANSITION
• 1 FRANCE, 2 GERMANY, 3 RUSSIA, 4 USA,
• 5 MAURITIUS, 6 SRI LANKA, 7 COSTA RICA,
• 8 WORLD

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ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGED OVER A DECADE1
DEVELOPED AND 2 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
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MAIN ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN MODELING

• GLOBAL POPULATION IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
• MANKIND IS A SINGLE SPECIES Homo sapiens
• SYSTEM IS COUPLED BY INTERACTIONS
• GROWTH IS STATISTICALLY DETERMINED AND
  DYNAMICALY SELF-SIMILAR, HENCE IT SCALES
• LIMITS OF SCALING ARE SET BY LIFE SPAN
• GROWTH IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF GLOBAL
  POPULATION AND IS NON-LINEAR

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MAIN RESULTS OF MODELLING GLOBAL
POPULATION GROWTH

• BLOW-UP OF POPULATION GROWTH
• GROWTH RATE
• GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER
• CONSTANTS
• POPULATION LIMIT BEGINNING PEOPLE WHO
  EVER LIVED
• INSTANTANEUS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

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PRINCIPAL RESULTS OF THEORY

• GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT DESCRIBED THROUGHOUT
  ALL OF HUMAN EXISTENCE
• GROWTH IS CULMINATED BY DEMOGRAPHIC
  TRANSITION A REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE
• GLOBAL POPULATION LIMIT AT 10 12 BILLION
• PEOPLE, WHO LIVED ON EARTH 100 BILLION
• PERIODS OF PAST HISTORY AND PREHISTORY SEEN ON
  A CONTRACTING TIME SCALE
• INTERNAL FACTORS DETERMINE TRANSITION, AND NOT BY
  ENVIRONMENT OR RESOURCES

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POPULATION OF THE WORLD 17502200
1 PROJECTIONS BY IIASA AND UN, 2
MODEL, o 1995 3 BLOW-UP, 4 DIFFERENCE OF
MODEL AND PROJECTIONS x 5 times
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• POPULATION OF MANKIND FROM ORIGINS
• AND INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

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Growth and development of mankind
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AGE DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE DEVELPED AND DEVELOPING
WORLD IN 1975 AND 2000
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CHANGE IN AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR GLOBAL
POPULATION1 AGE GROUP YONGER THAN 14 YEARS,
2 OLDER THAN 65 YEARS 3 OLDER THAN 80, A
DEVELOPING, B DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
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CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC
REVOLUTION
ECONOMIC
DEMOGRAPHIC

• Further globalization
• Alternative of stagnation or new development ?
• Deindustrialization
• Transition to an information society
• Expansion of services health,education,science
• Emergence of new priorities and values in
  consumption,environmnt

• Zero growth rate
• Stabilized population
• New age structure
• New time structure
• Ethnic changes
• Massive migrations ?
• Changes in mobility ?
• Predominance of old generations setting
  challenges for health and social security

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PRINCIPLES OF META-ECONOMICS

• RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING, GROWTH OF MANKIND
  WAS DETERMINED BY GENERALIZED INFORMATIONAL
  FACTORS THAT MODERATED SOCIAL EVOLUTION AND
  DEVELOPNENT
• THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TO A
  STABILIZED POPULATION IS DETERMINED BY THE
  LIMITS OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY
• THE FUTURE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
  SOFTWARE CULTURE OF AN INFORMATION DOMINATED
  WORLD, RATHER THAN THE HARDWARE OF
  INDUSTRY, AS IN THE PAST

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DEINDUSTRIALIZATION TOTAL U.S. WORK FORCE IN
20-th CENTURY
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WHAT DRIVES DEVELOPMENT?

• THE FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE ROOTS OF
  ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR LIE IN THE REALM OF
  CONSCIOUSNESS AND CULTURE LEADS TO THE COMMON
  MISTAKE OF ATTRIBUTING MATERIAL CAUSES TO
  PHENOMENA THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY IDEAL IN NATURE.
• FRANCIS
  FUCUYAMA

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ISSUES IN THE POST TRANSITION WORLD

• IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE MARKET, WITH ITS SHORT
  RANGE TIME SCALE A REACTION TO D.T.
• CAN THE DILEMMA OF SELF-ORGANIZATION v.s.
  ORGANIZATION FIND ITS RESOLUTION
• CAN A DECREASE IN MILITANCE BE EXPECTED IN A
  WORLD WITH A STABILIZED POPULATION ?
• CAN IN THIS WORLD LONG RANGE SOCIAL ISSUES BE
  FACED BY GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, NOW CONSPICIOUSLY
  ABSENT ?
• WILL GLOBAL PROBLEMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN AN
  EMERGENT NEW WORLD ?

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ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCESOF GLOBAL POPULATION
GROWTH

• Sergey P. Kapitza
• Institute for Physical Problems
• Russian Academy of Science, Moscow