Suvit Maesincee

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Thailand A Nation At Risk
Suvit Maesincee Sasin Institute for Global Affairs
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In the past, even though sometimes fuzzy, the
pictures were understandable
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(No Transcript)
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Finally, it became impossible to see what was
going on...
..by looking at things in a conventional way
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Common denominators
Picasso Time
Our Time
A Clear Enough Future
A
B
Alternate Futures
C
A Range of Futures
?
True Ambiguity
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The New Reality
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Revisit the Asian Financial Crisis 1997
Credit Crunch
Real Sector
Bankruptcy
Collapse of Financial Institutions
Public Sector
Financial Sector
Political Instability
People Sector
Social Unrest
Attacked by Hedging Funds
Unemployment
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10 Years Later -- Current Compounding Crisis
Global Inflation
Social Fragmentation
People Sector
Global Economy
Private Sector
Public Sector
Financial Instability
Economic Volatility
Global Financial Sector
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State of Nature
Crisis 1997
Current Crisis
A Clear Enough Future
A
Alternate Futures
B
C
A Range of Futures
True Ambiguity
?
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Closer Look
Financial Crisis
Compounding Crisis

• Internal
• Acute
• Financial Capital
• Closed end

• Internal External
• Chronic
• Social Capital
• Open End

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Vicious Circle
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Challenges Facing Thailand

• Political Turmoil
• Social Fragmentation
• Economic Volatility

• Confusion Trap
• Conflict Trap
• Disparity Trap
• Uncompetitive Trap

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• Bad Governance
• Weak Rule of Law
• Poor Social Justice

• Political Turmoil
• Social Fragmentation
• Economic Volatility

• Cronyism
• Nepotism
• Authoritarianism
• Hedonism

• Confusion Trap
• Conflict Trap
• Disparity Trap
• Uncompetitive Trap

Conduct
Performance
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Vicious Circle
Key Driver
Inst. Framework
Outcome

• Individualize
• Differentiate
• Change

• Bad Governance
• Weak Rule of Law
• Poor Social Justice

• Political Turmoil
• Social Fragmentation
• Economic Volatility

Underlying
Social Norms
Orientation

• Cronyism

• Confusion Trap
• Conflict Trap
• Disparity Trap
• Uncompetitive Trap

• Materialization
• Self Centered
• Representation

• Nepotism

• Authoritarianism

• Hedonism

Structure
Conduct
Performance
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Bad Governance
Thailand
Political Governance
Level of Corruption
58
34
Effectiveness of Legal System
35
Effectiveness of Enforcement Policies
20
Transparency of Accounting
21
Regulatory Quality and Enforcement
Corporate Governance
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Wealth Inequality
Poorest 10 Percentile
Income Inequality of Population at 10 Percentile
Richest 10 Percentile
64
.
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Namibia
47
.
2
Bolivia
4
44
.
7
South Africa
.
7
38
.
4
Malaysia
3
.
4
37
.
8
Sri Lanka
5
.
3
34
.
9
Hong Kong
.
7
33
.
4
Thailand
.
8
33
.
1
China
.
9
32
.
8
Singapore
3
.
2
29
.
9
Vietnam
.
9
29
.
9
USA
3
.
9
28
.
5
India
3
.
6
28
.
5
Indonesia
.
6
24
.
8
Canada
Norway
3
.
9
23
.
4
Finland
4
22
.
6
2
.
9
22
.
5
Korea
Sweden
3
.
6
22
.
2
Japan
4
.
8
21
.
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Share of Income ()
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Root Cause
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Root CauseGlobal Forces and Trends
Self-Driven
System-Driven
Individualize
Integrate
Change
Homogenize
Stabilize
Differentiate

• Globalization
• Industrialization
• Democratization

• Connectedness
• Unity
• Tradition

• Autonomy
• Freedom
• Modernity

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Window of Opportunity
High
Vulnerable Exposure
Sustainable Position
Openness
Missed Opportunity
Survival State
Low
High
Low
Readiness
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Root Cause--Self-System Imbalance
Integrate
Integrate
Homogenize
Stabilize
Homogenize
Stabilize
Individualize
Individualize
Change
Change
Differentiate
Differentiate
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Consequences
Key Driver
Inst. Framework
Outcome

• Individualize
• Differentiate
• Change

• Bad Governance
• Weak Rule of Law
• Poor Social Justice

• Political Turmoil
• Social Fragmentation
• Economic Volatility

Social Norms
Orientation
Underlying

• Cronyism

• Confusion Trap
• Conflict Trap
• Disparity Trap
• Uncompetitive Trap

• Materialization

• Nepotism

• Self -Centered

• Authoritarianism

• Representation

• Hedonism

Structure
Conduct
Performance
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Way Out
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Self-System Balance
New Architecture
Connectedness
Autonomy
Integrate
Unity
Freedom
Homogenize
Stabilize
Individualize
Tradition
Modernity
Change
Differentiate
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Self-System Balance
Humanization
Integrate
Materialization
Communal Value
Stabilize
Homogenize
Self-Centered Value
Individualize
Participation
Differentiate
Change
Representation
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A Major Change
Balanced Drivers
Institutional Framework

• Individualize-Integrate
• Differentiate-Homogenize
• Change-Stability

• Good Governance
• Rule of Law
• Social Justice

Social Norms
Orientation

• Competitiveness
• Cohesion
• Co-creation
• Co-prosperity

• Humanization
• Communal Value
• Participation

Structure
Conduct
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Change in Mindset
Institutional Framework
Institutional Framework

• Good Governance
• Rule of Law
• Social Justice

• Bad Governance
• Weak Rule of Law
• Poor Social Justice

Social Norms
Social Norms

• Competitiveness
• Cohesion
• Co-creation
• Co-prosperity

• Cronyism
• Nepotism
• Authoritarianism
• Hedonism

Influence Control
Empowerment
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From Vicious Circle to Virtuous Circle
Balanced Drivers
Expected Outcome
Institutional Framework

• Individualize-Integrate
• Differentiate-Homogenize
• Change-Stability

• Good Political Process
• Good Society
• Good Economy

• Good Governance
• Rule of Law
• Social Justice

Orientation
Social Norms
Underlying

• Competitiveness
• Cohesion
• Co-creation
• Co-prosperity

• Humanization
• Communal Value
• Participation

• Balanced Power
• Wealth Equality
• Open Opportunity

Structure
Conduct
Performance
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The New Mental Model
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Sufficiency Economy and Nation Building Strategy
Balanced Drivers
Expected Outcome
Institutional Framework

• Individualize-Integrate
• Differentiate-Homogenize
• Change-Stability

• Good Political Process
• Good Society
• Good Economy

• Good Governance
• Rule of Law
• Social Justice

Orientation
Social Norms
Underlying

• Competitiveness
• Cohesion
• Co-creation
• Co-prosperity

• Humanization
• Communal Value
• Participation

• Balanced Power
• Wealth Equality
• Open Opportunity

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Sufficiency Economy Philosophy
Principles
Practices

• Knowing
• Thinking
• Experiencing
• Serving

• Immunity
• Appropriateness
• Reasonableness

High
High
Knowledge
Knowledge

• Caring
• Sharing
• Trusting
• Collaborating

Low
Low
Low
High
Low
High
Morality
Morality
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Business Context
Morality
Conformance
Humanization
Materialization
Performance
Private Interest
Public Interest
Knowledge
33
Individual Context
Morality
Moral Wisdom
Humanization
Materialization
Market Wisdom
Private Interest
Public Interest
Knowledge
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Cause and Effect
High
High
High
Understanding
Achievement
Knowledge
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Morality
Access
Contentment

• Immunity
• Appropriateness
• Reasonableness

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Sufficiency Economy Spending
Use
Overspending
Appropriate Spending
Underspending
Dont Use
Dont Have
Have
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Sufficiency Economy Business Transaction
Overpriced
Expensive
Selling
Appropriate Deal
Cheap
Underpriced
Cheap
Expensive
Buying
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Sufficiency Economy Trade
Import
Export
Domestic Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Export
Import
Country II
Country I
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One Step at the Time
Big
Difficult
Many
Small
Easy
Few
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One Step at the Time--Business Value Creation
Brain Opportunity
Sweat Brain
Innovation
Sweat Tear
In-In
Out-Out
In-Out/Out-In
Internationalization
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The Migration from Populist to Fundamental Policy
Fundamental Policy
Cooperative Network
Work Collaboration
Self Sufficiency
Populist Policy
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Thailand Transformation
New Architecture
Sufficiency Economy Philosophy
New Orientation
The wealth of the Nation
New Institutional Framework
New Social Norms