Intro

1
Intro

• By the Numbers Snapshot of Arizonas
• Postsecondary Education System
• Arizona Postsecondary Commission
• Phoenix, Arizona
• November 8, 2007
• Tom Mortenson
• Senior Scholar
• The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity
  in Higher Education
• Higher Education Policy Analyst
• Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

2
The Human Capital Economy

• Since about 1973 incomes in the U.S. economy
• have been redistributed according to
  educational
• attainment--away from those with least formal
• education and toward those with the most
  formal
• education. This finding holds for
  individuals,
• families, cities and states.
• Beginning about 2000 the world became flat and
• global competition moved beyond blue collar to
  white
• collar jobs as well.
• Also about 2000 the higher educational
  attainment
• advantage of the U.S. workforce began to
  erode. Other
• countries are quickly moving past the U.S. in
  higher
• educating young adults entering their
  workforces.

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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State Poverty Rates
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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State Employed/Population Ratio
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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State Per Capita Personal Income
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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State Median Household Income
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Arizona

• High school graduation
• College continuation
• College participation by age 19
• Interstate freshmen migration
• Low income college participation
• State tax fund apprpriations

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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State Appropriations FY2007
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Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Appropriations Change 1980 to 2007
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Three forces of change
Three Forces of Change

• Economic change
• Demographic change
• Global competition

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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1. Changing World of Work
1. The Changing World of Work

• Employment by Industry
• Income by Education

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Total Employment
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Distribution of Employment
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Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Goods Producing Employment
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Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Service Providing Employment
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Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Government Employment
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Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Median Annual Male Income
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Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Income by Education for Males
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Changes in Income by Education for Males
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Median Annual Female Income
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Income by Education for Females
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Changes in Income by Educ for Females
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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2. Demographic Change
2. Demographic Change

• Demographic structure
• Shift from white to minority
• Shift from higher income to
• lower income students

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Demographic Structure of Higher Educ
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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White High School Graduate Share
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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White High School Graduate Numbers
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Minority High School Graduate Numbers
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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K-12 Enrollment Approved for Subsidized School
Lunches
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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3. Global Competition in Education

• 25 to 34 Year Olds with Bachelors Degrees
• 1998 U.S. tied for 1st
• 2002 U.S. 2nd
• 2004 U.S. 5th
• 2005 U.S. 7th
• 2020 (projected) 19th

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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61.N148FG12
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Bachelor Degree Attainment
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Change in Bachelor Degree Attainment
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Flagship University Tuition Fees
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Comprehensive Coll Univ TF
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Community College Tuition Fees
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org
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Resources
Resources
www.postsecondary.org tom_at_postsecondary.org
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
Arizona Postsecondary Commission November 8,
2007 Phoenix, AZ www.postsecondary.org