LEGITIMACY AND LOSING

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LEGITIMACY AND LOSING
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1. Attitudes of the losers after the electoral
outcomes

• Assumptions
• The literature on election outcomes agrees that
  the regime support is based on the way citizens
  perceive the legitimacy of the resolution of an
  electoral contest.
• Losers reaction is crucial their support
  depends of the recognition of the legitimacy of a
  procedure which produced their loss.

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1.1. Contest

•  Exit 
• - Withdrawal from the political process
• (e.g. abstention)
• - In order not to legitimate this process
• Example the boycott of the Peruvian presidential
  election (2000) resulted in a new election in
  2001.

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1.1 Contest

•  Voice 
• Active ways of protest
• Nontraditional and socially less accepted protest
  behaviours
• Example the Spanish election of 1936 ended in
  the civil war.

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1.2. Consent

• Sometimes losers (leaders and voters) concede
  even if the fairness of the outcome appears to be
  contestable
• Al Gore (December 2000)  While I strongly
  disagree with the courts decision, I accept it 
• 97 of his supporters thought he was the true
  winner (Gallup polls, 2000)

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1.2. Consent

• Necessary to protect the democratic system
• Nadeau and Blais (1993 553)  The viability of
  electoral democracy depends on its ability to
  secure the support of a substantial proportion of
  individuals who are displeased with the outcome
  of an election.
• Do you think that losers consent is always the
  best solution to protect the democratic system?

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2. Citizens support

• Easton (1965, 1975)  Legitimacy of democracies
  is affected by the extent to which citizens trust
  government to do what is right most of time.
• Eastons distinction between supports
• Diffuse support  reservoir of favorable
  attitudes or good will that helps members to
  accept or tolerate outputs to which they are
  opposed or the effects of which they see as
  damaging to their interests  (Easton, 1965
  124-5)
• Specific support decided by the citizens
  evaluation of system outputs, performance-based,
  short term

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3. Individual characteristics, support and
legitimacy

• Determinant variables of citizens support
• Majority/minority status
• Economic performance evaluations
• Interest in politics
• Socio-demographic characteristics
• The electoral experience of the individuals also
  matters

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3.1. Majority/minority status

•  Winner/loser gap 
• It is assumed that losers are more likely to be
  dissatisfied with the way democracy works
• People who voted for a governing party are by
  definition more likely to believe that the
  government is acting favorably for their interests

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3.1. Majority/minority status
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3.1. Majority/minority status

• Losers and institutional change
• Losers are more likely to want a system, which is
  considered as unfair for them to change
• Losers are more likely to take risks in order to
  accomplish this change

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3.2. Electoral experience

• Riker (1986) chronic losers are more likely to
  be favorable to an institutional change
• Losers with little electoral experience are more
  likely to contest the democratic legitimacy
• Particularly true in newer democracies where
  citizens are not used to losing (Anderson et al.)
• If losers are so likely to contest the democratic
  legitimacy, why dont we have more examples of
  institutional change?

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4. Institutional system, support and legitimacy

• Assumptions
• The type of democracy affects the satisfaction of
  the citizens with the system
• The way winners are rewarded and losers punished
  affects their attitudes toward the system
• Lijphart index (1984)
• Typology of democracies from the most consensual
  to the most majoritarian system
• Typology based on the answer to the question
   who rules ?

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4.1. Consensual democracies

•  As many people as possible  rule
• Proportional representation
• Coalition government
• Constitutional checks
• Losers in this type of democracy are more likely
  to support the system

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4.2. Majoritarian democracies

•  The majority of people  rule
• - Single member district elections
• - Unitary government
• Losers are more likely to be dissatisfied with
  the way the democracy works than in another
  system
• Do you think that people will be more satisfied
  in Italy (consensual democracy) than in Great
  Britain (the most majoritarian democracy)?

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5. Conclusion

• Losers support is essential for the democratic
  legitimacy
• risks of contest after the electoral outcomes
• losers are more likely to be dissatisfied with
  the way democracy works
• losers are more likely to be favourable to an
  institutional change and would take more risks to
  accomplish it

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5. Conclusion

• Losers support depends on
• The individuals characteristics
• How the system rewards the winners and punishes
  the losers