CHESS or POKER

1
CHESS or POKER?

• Different Styles of Decision Making

2
Objectives

• Discuss decision styles.
• When to make a decision.
• Indecision.

3
WBS

• What is a decision?
• Why do we need decisions?
• Chess or Poker?
• Decision styles
• When to decide
• Indecision

4
WHAT IS A DECISION?
5
What is a Decision ?

• The cognitive process leading to the
  selectionof a course of action
  amongalternatives.
• It can be an action or an opinion.
• It is a reasoning process whichcan be rational
  or irrational.

6
COGNITIVE to know

• Decisions are based on knowledge, which includes
  explicit assumptions and tacit assumptions.

7
WETHERN'S LAW OF SUSPENDED JUDGEMENT

• ASSUMPTION IS THE MOTHER OF ALL SCREW-UPS

8
Decision Process

• Structured rational decision making is an
  important part of all science-based professions.
  
• In situations with higher time pressures, higher
  stakes, or increased ambiguities, experts use
  intuitive decision making.

9
Recognition primed decisions

• To fit a set of indicators intothe experts
  experience andimmediately arrive at a
  satisfactory course of actionwithout weighing
  alternatives.
• (Same as last time)

10
Biases

• Biases can creep into our decision making
  processes, calling into question the correctness
  of a decision.
• But we do not recognise biases.

11
Cognitive biases

• Selective search for evidence
• Premature termination of search
• Conservatism and inertia
• Experimental limitations
• Selective perception
• Wishful thinking optimism
• Recency forget past lessons
• Faulty generalization

12
Rational Ignorance

• When the cost of educating oneself sufficiently
  to make an informed decision outweighs any
  potential benefit once could reasonably expect.
• Often the case in politics!

13
BORKOWSKI'S LAW

• YOU CAN'T GUARD AGAINST THE ARBITRARY

14
WHY DO WE NEED DECISION?
15
Project Managers Live by Decisions

• Projects are chains of decisions!

16
Whose decisions?

• Regulators
• Stakeholders
• Project Teams
• Project Managers

17
Project Managers

• Make decisions
• Seek decisions
• Influence decisions
• Suffer indecisions

18
COBLITZ'S LAW

• A COMMITTEE CAN MAKE A DECISION THAT IS DUMBER
  THAN ANY OF ITS MEMBERS

19
Creativity finding solutions

• Lateral thinking approach
• In group situation, brainstorming
• Helps develop ideas in depth, and
• Brings in experience and creativity of active
  members.
• Methodical, structured approach
• Essential where decisions are important, and
• All options must be considered.

20
CHESS or POKER
21
Russians play chessAmericans play poker
22
Chess is deterministic

• No hidden facts
• Bound by rules
• Predictable events
• Played to a conclusion

23
PMBoK

• The Project Management Plan is the plan of plans.
• Planning involves deciding.
• Ideally, projects are chess games!
• But, there is risk management.

24
The challenge is to determine!

• As far ahead as one can
• Your moves
• Consequences
• Counter-moves
• Opponents strategy

25
Poker is probabilistic

• Unknown cards
• Random events
• Rules apply
• External clues
• Can be reset
• Except for gains or losses

26
The challenge is to guess!

• Your strengths
• Their strengths
• Your odds
• But determine your
• tolerance for losses!

27
DECISIONSTYLES

• These are Norms opinions, not science!

28
Cognitive styles

• Isabel Bryggs Meyer (1962)
• Four bi-polar dimensions(Myers-Brigg Type
  Indicators)
• Thinking and Feeling
• Extroversion and Introversion
• Jugdment and perception
• Sensing and intuition

29
Decision styles

• Thinking and Feeling
• DELIBERATE DECIDER
• CHESS PLAYER
• Great for complex problems

30
Decision styles

• Extroversion and Introversion
• NEGOTIATOR
• CHESS or POKER
• Great for consensus decisions

31
Decision styles

• Jugdment and perception
• PROCESSOR
• CHESS
• Great for thought and thoroughness

32
Decision styles

• Judgment and perception
• HUNTER
• POKER, sometime Chess
• Great for quick decisions, can lie in wait.

33
But of course!

• Sometimes we can be fortunate, and the right
  decisions can be so obvious that we make them
  automatically.

34
Welcome to the Big League!

• As or our decisions become more important,
  decision-making is often less clear-cut The easy
  decisions have often already been made, and were
  left with difficult, complex decisions where no
  outcome is perfect, but where the consequence of
  not taking a decision can be even worse.

35
WHEN TO DECIDE?
36
PMBoK Risk Identification

• Outputs
• Risks
• Triggers
• Input to other processes

37
Wait for it!

• Decisions commit the project to a course of
  action.
• This could mean lost opportunities.

38
Dont miss it!

• If you dont have triggers, your project team
  might not recognize a need for a decision.
• If you dont decide, events will.

39
Wicked Problems

• Not well understood until formulation of a
  solution.
• Stakeholders have radically different world views
  and frames for understanding problem.
• Constraints and resources to solve problem change
  over time
• Problem is never solved.

40
INDECISON

• A poor decision is better than no decision!
• Either lead, follow, or get out of the way

41
Complexity leads to reduced decision making
ability

• It just becomes to hard to figure out
• The decision process becomes onerous
• Too many choices

42
Limitations of Traditional Decision Making

• In complex strategy issue, organizations often
  react by moving along paths that either emphasize
  the decision making process or emphasize a quick
  decision

43
Paralysis by AnalysisExtinct by instinct
44
TO SUM UP

• P Mgmt is a chain of decisions.
• P Mgrs live all decisions, but dont make them
  all.
• People dont all decide the same way!
• Have triggers for decisions.
• Some problems never go away.

45

• It does take a while to become experienced

46
Questions?
47
(No Transcript)
48
Boileau, French author

• Ce qui se conçoit bien, sexprime
  clairement,
• et les mots pour le faire viennent aisément!
• What is well perceived can be expressed
  clearly, and the words to do so come easily!