Overview of SCOPIC

1
Overview of SCOPIC
Seasonal Climate Outlooks in Pacific Island
Counties.
2
What is SCOPIC??

• Software program for
• developing Seasonal Climate Outlooks for the
  Pacific Island Countries
• Highly graphical Interface
• Flexible outputs, User friendly

3
Operational Structure
Outputs
4
Approach to Seasonal Climate Forecasting
Climate Predictors
Forecasts!
5
Better Risk Management Decisions
6
Step 4 Test Skill

• Skill maps for
• Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS)
• Hit Rate
• Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)
• Hindcast Analysis showing observed and predicted
  categories

7
Step 5 Generate Reports

• Template-based real-time reporting
• Import new report types at any time
• Save and edit reports in Word (rtf) format
• Customize reports for your country.

8
Now and the future..

• Available now to all PI-CPP participants.
• Currently being further developed
• Localised report templates to be developed for
  each country.

9
Data Features

• Supports Microsoft Excel Format
• Missing data is allowable
• Update predictors from internet
• Edit data files externally (Excel)
• Graphical tool for setting predictor and
  predictand periods.
• Data reloading functionality

10
Operation 3 Levels
Level 1 Steps
Level 2 Analyses
Level 3 Output Views
11
Step 1 Organise Data

• Add/Remove
• Predictors
• Predictands
• Stations

12
Step 2 Explore Data

• Includes
• Time-series explorer
• Monthly statistics
• Historical summaries (based on predictor and
  predictand periods)
• Scatter plot analysis.

13
Step 3 Analyse Relationships

• Chocolate wheel analysis
• For both terciles and above/below median
• Includes cross-validated skill scores
• Regression analysis plots predictands versus
  the predictor-elements.