Title: RISK MANAGEMENT MODULE A
1RISK MANAGEMENT MODULE A Asset Liability
Management AND MODULE B Risk Management
- A PRESENTATION BY
- K ESWAR MBA XLRI, CAIIB
- CHIEF MANAGER, SPBT COLLEGE.
2BANKS TYPICALLY FACE THREE KINDS OF RISK
Example
Type of Risk
Stocks
Daily price change ()
- Risk of loss due to unexpected re-pricing of
assets owned by the bank, caused by either - Exchange rate fluctuation
- Interest rate fluctuations
- Market price of investment fluctuations
- Risk of loss due to unexpected borrower default
- Risk of loss due to a sudden reduction in
operational margins, caused by either internal or
external factors viz Process failure, systems
failure, human error, frauds but does not cover
reputational risk/strategic risk.
Unexpected price volatility
Market
Time
Default rate ()
Loans with credit rating 3
Unexpected default
Avg. default
Credit
Time
Monthly change of revenue to cost ()
Business unit A
Unexpected low cost utilization
Operational
Time
3The Current Capital Accord
- Focused on credit risk but formula based
- Partially amended in 1996 to include market risk
- Operational risk not addressed
- Simple in its application
- Produced an easily comparable and verifiable
measure of banks soundness
4Need for a new frame-work
- Financial innovation and growing complexity of
transactions - Categorised banks assets into one of only four
categories each representing a risk class - Made no allowance for the effect portfolio
diversification - Requirement of more flexible approaches as
opposed to one size fits all Approach - Requirement of Risk sensitivity as opposed to a
broad- brush Approach - Operational Risk not covered
5Basle Accord I II - Differences
- Talks of Credit Risk only
- Capital Charge for Credit Risk 8
- Does not mention separate Capital charge for
Market and Operational Risk - No mention about market Discipline
- No effort to quantify Market and Operational Risk
- Talks of Credit, Market and Operational Risks
- Capital Charge dependant on Risk rating of assets
- Capital Charge to include risks arising out of
Credit, Market and Operational risks. Not a broad
brush approach - Quantitative approach for calculation of Market
and Operational risks as for Credit Risk.
6Three pillars of the Basel II framework
Minimum Capital Requirements
Supervisory Review Process
Market Discipline
- Credit risk
- Operational risk
- Market risk
- Banks own capital strategy
- Supervisors review
7Pillar I Credit Risk
Pillar 1 Credit Risk stipulates three levels of
increasing sophistication. The more sophisticated
approaches allow a bank to use its internal
models to calculate its regulatory capital. Banks
who move up the ladder are rewarded by a reduced
capital charge
Advanced Internal Ratings Based Approach
Increase Sophistication
Foundation Internal Ratings Based Approach
Banks use internal estimations of PD, loss given
default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD) to
calculate risk weights for exposure classes
Standardized Approach
Banks use internal estimations of probability of
default (PD) to calculate risk weights for
exposure classes. Other risk components are
standardized.
Risk weights are based on assessment by external
credit assessment institutions
Reduce Capital requirements
8Pillar I Minimum Capital Requirements
The new Accord maintains the current definition
of total capital and the minimum 8 requirement
Total capital
Banks capital ratio (minimum 9)
Credit risk Market risk Operational risk
Total capital Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 1
Shareholders equity disclosed reserves Tier 2
Supplementary capital (e.g. undisclosed reserves,
provisions)
Total Capital
Credit Risk
The risk of loss arising from default by a
creditor or counterparty
Market Risk
The risk of losses in trading positions when
prices move adversely
Operational Risk
The risk of loss resulting from inadequate or
failed internal processes, people and systems or
from external events
The revisions affect the denominator of the
capital ratio - with more sophisticated measures
for credit risk, and introducing an explicit
capital charge for operational risk
9Internal Ratings Based Approach
- Exposures in five categories because of different
risk characteristics - Sovereigns
- Banks
- Corporates
- Retail
- NPA
10Pillar I Credit Risk
Pillar 1 Credit Risk stipulates three levels of
increasing sophistication. The more sophisticated
approaches allow a bank to use its internal
models to calculate its regulatory capital. Banks
who move up the ladder are rewarded by a reduced
capital charge
Advanced Internal Ratings Based Approach
Increase Sophistication
Foundation Internal Ratings Based Approach
Banks use internal estimations of PD, loss given
default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD) to
calculate risk weights for exposure classes
Standardized Approach
Banks use internal estimations of probability of
default (PD) to calculate risk weights for
exposure classes. Other risk components are
standardized.
Risk weights are based on assessment by external
credit assessment institutions
Reduce Capital requirements
11Capital Requirement What New?
12Framework
13Claims on Banks is 20 subject to the fact that
CRAR of borrowing Bank is 9 and above. And it
is scheduled Bank.
14Claims on corporates
Credit assessment by domestic rating agencies AAA AA A BBB BB and below Unrated
Risk weight 20 30 50 100 150 100
Unrated exposure of Rs.50(Rs.10 crores) will
attract 150 risk weight.
15Mapping process draft guidelines
Short term ratings Short term ratings Short term ratings Short term ratings Risk weights
CARE CRISIL FITCH ICRA
PR1 P1 F1 A1 20
PR1 P1 F1 A1 30
PR2 P2 F2 A2 50
PR3 P3 F3 A3 100
PR4/PR5 P4/P5 B/C/D AR/A5 150
UNRATED UNRATED UNRATED UNRATED 100
16Retail Portfolio - Criteria
- Orientation criterion - exposure to individual
person or persons or to a small business. - Product criterion - revolving credit, line of
credit, personal term loan and lease small
business facilities and commitments. - Granularity criterion- regulatory retail
portfolio is sufficiently diversified to a degree
that reduces the risk in the portfolio no
aggregate exposure to one counterpart can exceed
0.2 of the overall regulatory retail portfolio
- Low value of individual exposures- the maximum
aggregate retail exposure to one counterpart
cannot exceed an absolute threshold of euro 1
million.( Rs. 5 Crores for our Bank) - Turnover Rs.50 Crores.(AVERAGE FOR LAST 3 YEARS)
17Capital charge for Credit risk contd
- Past due loans
- The unsecured portion of any loan that is past
due for more than 90 days, net of specific
provisions, to be given higher risk weight - 150 if specific provision lt20 o/s
- 100 if provision gtor 20
- if provision or gt 50 with supervisory
discretion for 50 weight - 100 if provision gt or 15 if fully secured
18Exclusion in Regulatory Retail.
- Mortgage loans to the extent they qualify for
treatment as claims secured by residential
property Margin 25 RW upto Rs.20 lakhs 50
and Rs.20 lakh and above 75 Margin less than 25
RW 100 - Consumer credit, credit card exposure etc.
RW125 - Capital market exposure and NBFCs RW125
- Commercial Real Estate RW 150
- Staff loans 20 if covered by superanuation
funds or mortgage. - Other staff loans 75 RW
19Operational Risk
- Explicit charge on capital
- Basic Indicator approach 15 of gross income
- Gross income net interest income plus net non
interest income -
20GROSS INCOME
- GROSS INCOME NET PFORIT PROVISIONSOPERATING
EXPENSES-PROFIT ON SALE OF INVSTEMENT-INCOME FROM
INSURANCE-EXTRA ORDINARY ITEM OF INCOME LOSS ON
SALE OF INVESTMENT
21Operational Risk
- Standardised Approach- Capital charge is
calculated as a simple summation of capital
charges across 8 business lines
Business lines of gross income
Corporate finance 18
Trading sales 18
Retail Banking 12
Commercial Banking 15
Payment Settlement 18
Agency Services 15
Asset Management 12
Retail Brokerage 12
22- CREDIT RISK MITIGATION
- HAIR CUT TO EXPOSURE
- HAIR CUT TO FINANCIAL COLLATETAL.
23-
- Q. Net Interest Margin NIM is defined as
- a. Net interest income divided by total earning
assets. - b. Interest income interest expenses.
- c. total interest income divided by total assets.
- d. None of above.
-
- Q..Ratio of share holders funds to total assets
is called as - a. Debt equity ratio.
- b. TOL/TNW ratio.
- c. Economic equity ratio.
- d. No ne of above.
24-
- Q The institution is in a position to benefit
from rising interest rates when assets are
than liabilities. - Lower.
- Greater
- Equal
- Half.
- Q. The liquidity risk arising out of
unanticipated withdrawal or non renewal of
deposits is called as - a. Funding Risk.
- b. Time risk.
- c. Market Risk
- d. Operational risk.
25-
- Q. The liquidity risk arising out of non
receipt of expected in flow of funds due to
accounts turning as NPA is known as - a. Time Risk.
- b. Call Risk.
- c. Operational Risk.
- d. Funding risk.
-
- Q. The liquidity risk arising out of
crystallization of liabilities and conversion
of non fund based limits to fund based limits
is known as - a. Call risk.
- b. Time risk.
- c. Operational risk.
- d. Market risk.
-
26-
- Q. Stock approach of measuring and managing
liquidity risk and funding requirements is
based on - a. level of assets and liabilities and balance
sheet exposure on a particular date. - b. based on stocks pledged to Bank in Cash
Credit Account - c. Stock of Investments of bank.
- d. None of above.
-
- Q. Flow approach to measuring and managing
liquidity consist of - a. Measuring and managing net funding
requirements. - b. Managing market access.
- c. Contingency planning.
- d. All the above.
27-
- Q. Under gap method the net funding
requirement is calculated based on - a. residual maturities of assets and
liabilities. - b. Actual maturities of assets and liabilities
- c. Both the above.
- d. None of above.
-
- Q. Cash inflows arise from mainly
- a. Maturing assets.
- b. Maturing liabilities.
- c. Maturing off balance sheet exposure.
- d. Maturing time deposits.
28-
- q. Cash outflows arise out of mainly.
- a. Maturing liabilities.
- b. Maturing assets.
- c. Maturing T Bills.
- d. Maturing CPs.
-
- Q. Different between the cash in flow and cash
out flow will result into.. if the cash
inflows are lower than the cash outflows - a. deficit.
- c. Surplus
- d. None of above.
- e. No impact.
29-
- Q. If there is significant deficit observed say
after 30 days period the option available for
bank is to - a. acquire an asset maturing on that day.
- b. renew or roll over a 30 day liability.
- c. Acquire a liability maturing after 30
days. - d. None of above.
-
- Q. In the year 2007 RBI has for the purpose of
measurement of liquidity risk split the first
time bucket of 1-14 days in its structural
liquidity in - a. Four time buckets.
- b. Three time buckets
- c. Five time buckets.
- d. None of above.
30- Q the net cumulative negative mismatch during
the next day, 2-7 days, 8-14 days and 15-28 days
buckets should not exceed - a.5,10, 15 and 20 of cumulative cash inflows
in respective time bucket. - b. 20,15,10 and 5 of cumulative cash inflows.
- c.10,5,25 and 30 of cumulative cash inflows.
- Q. Frequency of structural liquidity position
is - a. fortnightly
- b. Weekly.
- c. Monthly
- d. Quarterly.
31-
- Capital , Reserves and Surplus are slotted in
which time bucket in Structural Liquidity
Statement - Over 5 years.
- Over 3 Years.
- Over 1 Year.
- Over 6 months.
- Q. Saving and Current deposit may be treated as
volatile portion upto - a. 10 and 15 respectively.
- b.20 and 30 respectively.
- c. 30 and 40 respectively.
- d. None of above
32- Q. Placement of volatile portion and core
portion of Saving and current deposit may be done
as under - a. volatile portion in day 1 time bucket and core
portion in 1-3 year bucket. - b. Volatile portion in 7 day time bucket and
core portion in 5 year bucket. - c. Volatile portion in 2-7 days time bucket and
core portion in 1 year time bucket. - d. none of above.
-
- Q. Cash should be shown under which time bucket
for inflow - a. 1 day.
- b. 2-7 days.
- c. 8-14 days.
- d. One year.
33-
- Q. Investment in shares and mutual fund (open
ended) should be shown in - a. Over 5 year bucket
- b. Over 1 year bucket.
- c. Over 2 year Bucket.
- D. None of above.
-
- Q. Investment in subsidiaries and joint ventures
to be shown - a. In over 5 year bucket.
- b. In over 3 year bucket.
- c. In over 1 year bucket.
- d. None of above.
34-
- Q. Core portion of Cash credit advances may be
shown undera. 1-3 year time bucket. - b. over 3 year time bucket.
- c. Over 5 years time bucket.
- d. None of above.
-
- Q. Term Loans to be shown under
- a. Interest and principal of the loan under
residual maturity bucket. - b. Principal under residual maturity bucket.
- c. all in 5 year and above bucket.
- d. None of above.
35-
- Q. Sub Standard loans to be shown under
- a. Over one year bucket.
- b. Over 2 year bucket.
- c. Over 3 years bucket.
- d. Over 3-5 year bucket.
-
- Q. Fixed Assets
- a. Over 5 year bucket.
- b. Over 2 year bucket.
- c. Over 1 year bucket.
- d. none of above.
36-
- Q. The net cumulative negative mismatches
during the day 1, 2-7, 8-14 and 15-28 days
buckets if exceed the prudential limits may be
financed from market by - a. Market borrowings ( call /term)
- b. Bills discounting
- c. Repo
- d. All above.
37- Q. Market Value of an asset is conceptually equal
to - a. Present value of current and future cash flows
from that asset and liability. - b. future value of current and future cash
flows from that asset and liability. - c. None of above.
- d. all the above.
-
- Q. There fore rising interest rates increase the
discount rates on those cash flows and thus - a. Decrease the market value of asset or
liability. - b. Increase the market value of asset or
liability. - c. No impact is caused.
- d. None of above.
-
38- Q. Falling interest rate decrease the discount
rates on these cash flows and thus - a. Increase the market value of an asset or
liability. - c. Decrease the market value of an asset or
liability. - d. No Impact.
- e. None of above.
-
- Q. What is basis risk
- a. risk that interest rate of different assets
and liabilities may change in different
magnitudes is called basis risk. - b. Risk relating to basis on which loan is
sanctioned. - c. Risk related to yield curve.
- d. None of above.
39- Q. Yield Curve Risk is known as
- a. Risk owing to altering of yields across
maturities and its impact on NII - b. Risk owing to wrong drawing of yield curve
by Bank staff. - c. risk of lower current yield .
- d. None of above.
-
- Q. Gap method is basically used for
- a. measuring banks interest rate risk exposure.
- b. measure maturity mismatch
- c. Measure potential losses from off balance
sheet exposure. - d. None of above.
40-
- Q. In a given time band a negative or liability
sensitive gap occurs when - a. Rate sensitive liabilities exceed rate
sensitive assets. - b. Rate sensitive assets exceed rate sensitive
liabilities. - c. None of above.
- d. All the above.
-
- Q. with a negative gap , an increase in market
interest rates could cause a - a. decline in net interest income.
- b. Increase in net interest income.
- c. None of above.
- d. All above.
-
41Market Value with interest at 8
42Interest Rate
- Suppose that current expectation of yield is 10.
What will be the market price?
43Interest Rate
- Suppose that current expectation of yield is 6.
What will be the market price?
44-
- Q. Higher the duration implies that a given
change in the level of interest rates will have - a. larger impact on economic value.
- b. smaller impact on economic value.
- c. No Impact.
- d. None of above.
-
- Q. Duration will be higher ifa. longer the
maturity date or smaller the payments that occur
before maturity ( coupon payments) - b. shorter the maturity and higher the payments
that occur before maturity ( coupon payments) - c. None of above.
- d. all the above.
45-
- Q. One of the strategies for reducing the asset
or liability sensitivity could be - a. Increase floating rate instruments.
- b. Increase fixed rate instruments.
- c. None of above.
- d. all the above.
-
- Q. The Duration of Zero coupon bond would be
- a. Greater than its maturity.
- b. Shorter than its maturity.
- c. Equal to its maturity.
- d. None of above.
46- None of above.
- Q. Under Put option the buyer has
- a. Right to sell but not obligation to sell
- b. Right to buy but not obligation to buy
- c. Right to receive interest payments.
- d. None of above.
- Q. Under Call option the buyer has
- a. Right to buy but not obligation to buy
- b. right to sell but not obligation to buy
- c. None of above.
47- ..
-
- Q. American option
- a. Permit the holder to exercise any time before
the expiration date. - b. Does not permit to exercise any time before
the expiration date. - c. None of above.
- d. all above.
-
- Q. European option means
- a. Which permit holder to exercise any time
before expiration date. - b. Does not permit holder to exercise any time
before expiration date. - c. all above.
- d. none of above.
48-
- Q. In India only
- a. European option are allowed.
- b. Only American option are allowed.
- c. Both are allowed.
- d. None are allowed.
-
- Q. Futures are
- a. Over the counter products.
- b. Exchange traded.
- c. None of above.
- d. all the above.
49-
- Q. Which of the following is true
- a. A swap has invariably two legs of transaction.
- b. A swap only one leg of transaction.
- c. None of above.
- d. All the above.
-
- Q. Futures are marked to market on
- a. Daily basis and margin is adjusted.
- b. Weekly basis.
- c. Monthly basis.
- d. None of above.
50-
- Q. Short term dynamic liquidity statement
relate to - a. monitoring liquidity on dynamic basis over a
time horizon of 1-90 days. - b. monitoring liquidity on dynamic basis over a
time horizon of 7-90 days. - c. monitoring liquidity on dynamic basis over a
time horizon of 28-90 days. - d. None of above.
-
- Q. In statement of interest rate sensitivity
- a. Only rupee assets and liabilities and off
balance sheet positions should be reported. - b. All assets and liabilities should be
reflected. - c. Only foreign currency assets and liabilities
should be reflected. - d. None of above.
51-
- Q. Gap is the difference between
- a. Rate Sensitive Assets and Rate Sensitive
Liabilities for each time bucket. - b. Rate Sensitive Liabilities and Rate Sensitive
Assets for each time bucket. - c. None of above.
- d. all above.
-
- Q If positive gap of RSA gt RSL, Bank will
- A.Benefit from rising interest rate.
- B.Lose from rising interest rate.
- C.None of above.
- D.All of above.
52- Q. If negative gap of RSL gt RSA will benefit
from - a. declining interest rate.
- b. Rising interest rate.
- c. None of above.
- d. No impact.
-
- Q. Capital , Reserves and Surplus are
- a. Non interest rate sensitive.
- b. Interest Rate Sensitive.
- c. None of above.
53-
- Q. Provisions and inter office adjustments are
- a. Rate sensitive.
- b. Rate non sensitive.
- c. None of above.
- d. all of above.
-
- Q. Current account balance is
- a. Rate sensitive.
- b. Rate non sensitive.
- c. None of above.
- d. All of above.
54- . Banking Book relates to assets which are
- A held till maturity and reflected in
Balancesheet at acquisition cost. - b. held till maturity and reflected in Banking
book at market cost. - c. None of above.
- d. all of above.
-
- Q. Trading book includes
- a. assets a which normally not held till
maturity and mark to market system is followed. - b. assets which are held till maturity.
- c. assets which are purchased in market.
- d. none of above.
55-
- Q..which book is exposed to market risk.
- a. Banking book.
- b. trading book
- c. None of above.
- d. Both a and b.
-
- Q. Which is true
- a. Risk associated with portfolio is always
less than the weighted average of risks of
individual items in portfolio. - b. Risk associated with portfolio is always more
than the weighted average of risks of individual
items in portfolio. - c. Risk associated with portfolio is equal to
weighted average of risks of individual items in
a portfolio. -
56-
- Q. Daily volatility of stock is 1. What is 10
day volatility? - a. 3
- b.10
- c.1
- d.4
57- Q. Systemic risk can be diversified
- a. True.
- b. False
- c. Partly true
- d. partly false.
-
- Q. Basel Committee (BCBS) possess formal super
national supervisory authority and its
conclusions have legal force - a. True.
- b. False.
58-
- q..Bond prices changes can be estimated using
modified duration using following relationship - a. modified duration yield change.
- b. Mculay duration yield change.
- c. Maturityyield change.
- d. None of above.
-
- Q.VaR is
- a. potential worst case loss at a specific
confidence level over a certain period of time. - b. potential worst case loss over indefinite
period of time. - c. none of above.
-
59-
- 1 day VaR of portfolio is Rs.5,00,000 with 95
confidence level in a period of six months ( 125
days) how many times the loss on the portfolio
may exceed Rs.5,00,000 - 4 days. B. 5 days. 3. 6 days 4. 7 days.
-
- Q. RAROC stands for
- a. Risk Adjusted Return on capital
- b. Risk adjusted return on cost.
- c. Return adjusted risk on credit.
- D none of above.
60-
- Q.Credit Default swaps are
- a. One of credit derivatives.
- b. a kind of Bank guarantee
- c. a kind of line of credit.
- d. stand by credit.
-
- Q. The beta factor for calculating operational
risk under standardized approach for retail
banking is - a. 12
- b.18
- c.15
- D. None of above.
61-
- Q. Probability of occurrence 4
- Potential financial impact 4
- Impact of internal control 0
-
- a. What is estimated level of operational risk?
- 1. 3
- 2. 2
- 3 0
- 4. 4
62Interest Rates
63Yield Curve Parallel Shifts
64Yield Curve Stiffening Flattening
65 66DURATION
- A methodology is required for following purposes
- To assess ALM mis-matches between assets and
liabilities - To compare two portfolios - Both can be assets /
liabilities or one asset and one liability
portfolio - To decide between various options for contracting
assets or liabilities - DURATION ANALYSIS
67DURATION
- In financial analysis, any intermittent cash flow
earned from a financial asset is presumed to be
reinvested at current interest rates. - Thus, when current interest rates go up, price of
a bond falls while the reinvestment income will
go up for period to maturity. Thus capital loss
and higher income occur together. - At some point of time in the life of the asset,
the capital loss will equal the rise in
reinvestment income This point of time is defined
as Duration of the Asset.
68DURATION
- Duration is also termed as effective life of an
asset / liability or as weighted average life. - Duration can be applied to any asset / liability
that is of fixed income type. It cannot be
applied to floating rate instruments. - Duration is a direct outcome of maturity (to
term) and interest rates. - Hence Duration is also viewed as primary
measurement of price sensitivity. - Duration measure (D) is expressed in years.
69DURATION ANALYSIS An Example
70Duration
- Duration in expressed in years and is comparable
across portfolios. - Duration of a Zero Coupon Bond is equal to its
maturity. - Duration is additive. Hence, Duration of a
portfolio is the weighted average duration of all
instruments of the portfolio. - Duration of a coupon paying bond / asset is less
than its maturity. - Longer the maturity of a bond, longer is
Duration. - Duration is inversely related to Coupon.
71Duration
- Duration is directly related to market interest
rates / Yield. - Higher the frequency of coupons, lower the
Duration. - Duration of a Floating Rate bond is equal to its
interest reset period or the period remaining to
next reset of interest. - For small changes in yield, Duration multiplied
by percentage change in yield gives percentage
change in price for bonds.
72Duration Price Change
- If current price of a bond is Rs 98.50, its
Duration is 2.7613 and yield is likely to change
from 6.00 to 5.80, then the likely price of the
bond is computed as under - change in Price D(percentage change in
Yield) - 2.7513 (6.00 - 5.80)
- 0.55226
- Absolute change in Price 98.50 0.55226
- 0.54398.
- As Yield has come down, price will increase and
therefore, expected bond price will be
Rs 99.04398.
73Modified Duration
- Duration is not preferred to compute price
changes when change in yield is large. For this
purpose, Modified Duration (MD) is used. - MD Duration / (1Yield)
- In our Bond example, D2.76129 and yield is
6.00. Therefore, MD 2.76129/(10.06) or
2.60500. Let current market price be Rs 98.50. - If yield changes from 6.00 to 5.80, percentage
change in price will be 0.52100 and absolute
change in price will be 0.51318. - Hence changed price will be Rs 99.01318.
74Duration Interest Rate Risk
- In a banks balance sheet, If DA DL, there is
no IRR faced by the bank. IRR manifests itself if
DA gt DL or DA lt DL, depending on the direction of
movement of interest rates. - Hence, the strategy for containing IRR will be to
aim at a mix of assets and liabilities in such a
way that their Duration matches. - Duration Gap is the difference between the
Duration of Assets less the effective Duration of
Liabilities.
75Duration Interest Rate Risk
- If a bank has Asset Duration of 3 years, Assets
of Rs 200 crore and Liabilities (excluding
Equity) of Rs 150 crore, the bank should target
Liability Duration of 4 years (2003/150). - In that case, Duration of Equity will be
- (3200) (4150) 0.
- In other words, banks net worth is immunized
against changes in interest rates.