Determinants of Civil War

1
Determinants of Civil War

• Shom Mazumder
• Julian Rosenthal

2
Research Question

• Are income distribution and oil production
  significant determinants of civil war?

3
Hypothesis

• Ho No significant relationship.
• H1 There is a significant relationship.
• Why?

4
Potential Problems

• Selection problems.
• Endogeneity between civil war and oil production.

5
The Numbers
Gini Civil War Onset? (Y/N) Oil Production (Kt of oil)
World 37.2687 n/a
UK (1969) 26.7 Y 101860
Nigeria (1967) 58.9841 Y 111495(1971)
El Salvador (1979) 46.6489 Y 2094
Sri Lanka (1987) 32.9394 Y 3983
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Significance

• Possible predictor for civil war
• Oils role in civil conflict?