Newcomb

1
Newcombs Paradox

• Selmer Bringsjord
• Philosophy of Film
• 12.7.02

2
The Situation
A highly superior being from another planet of
the galaxy presents you with two boxes, A, open,
and B, closed. In the open box is a
thousand-dollar bill. In the closed box there is
either one million dollars or nothing. You are
to choose between taking both boxes, or taking B
only. But theres a catch! The being claims
that hes able to predict what any human being
will decide to do. Earlier, he made a prediction
about which box you would choose. If he predicted
that you would take only the closed box, then he
placed 1,000,000 in it. But if he predicted you
would take both boxes, he left the closed box
empty. Furthermore, he has run this experiment
with 999 people before, and he has been right
every time. What do you?
?
Nothing?
1,000,000
1000
B
A
3
The Situation
A pre-cog presents you with two options, killing
Crow, or not
4
The Situation
A highly superior being from another planet of
the galaxy presents you with two boxes, A, open,
and B, closed. In the open box is a
thousand-dollar bill. In the closed box there is
either one million dollars or nothing. You are
to choose between taking both boxes, or taking B
only. But theres a catch! The being claims
that hes able to predict what any human being
will decide to do. Earlier, he made a prediction
about which box you would choose. If he predicted
that you would take only the closed box, then he
placed 1,000,000 in it. But if he predicted you
would take both boxes, he left the closed box
empty. Furthermore, he has run this experiment
with 999 people before, and he has been right
every time. What do you?
?
Nothing?
1,000,000
1000
B
A
5
The Paradox
The evidence is pretty obvious that if you choose
to take only the closed box you will be
1,000,000 richer, whereas if you take both boxes
you get only a measly thousand. Youd be stupid
to take both boxes!
Suppose that the closed box is such that you
cant see its contents but an experiment
moderator can. The moderator is watching you
decide between one box and both boxes, and the
money is there in front of his eyes. Wouldnt
he think you an idiot for not taking both boxes?!
On the other hand, at the time you make your
decision, the closed box already is empty or else
contains a million dollars. Either way, if you
take both boxes you get a thousand dollars more
than if you take the closed box only!
?
Nothing?
1,000,000
1000
B
A
6
Proposals

• Martin Gardner take both boxes, logically
  impossible (but he fails to show logical
  impossibility)
• Robert Nozick take both boxes (its
  complicated)
• William Lane Craig maps to issue of divine
  foreknowledge and free will great paper on W3
• Selmer Bringsjord (for what its worth) take
  both boxes, scenario is logically impossible, in
  light of the logical structure of free will as
  set out in What Robots Can Cant Be
• You?
• Explain how Newcombs Paradox can be seen in
  Minority Report
• Given cogent proposal for resolving the Paradox