Aims

1
Aims

• To produce high quality analysis to inform public
  debate and development of future long-term care
  and pensions policy up to 2030
• By
• projecting the numbers, disability status, family
  circumstances, income, savings and care needs of
  older people, over the next 30 years
• assessing the affordability and distribution of
  costs and benefits of combined policy options for
  pensions and long-term care
• accounting for links between care needs and
  economic resources in later life

2
5 linked work packages
Future disease patterns their implications for
disability in later life (WP2)
Mortality trends and their implications (WP1)
Changing family units kinship structure (WP3)
Projections of pensions, incomes, savings, care
(paid unpaid) expenditure on pensions
long-term care (WP5)
Household family resources (WP4)
3
CARESIM
GAD mortality projections various assumptions
FRS respondents aged 65 money values uprated to
base year

• Age the sample (no refreshment)
• death
• widowhood
• evolution of income wealth

output year gt base year?
Yes
tax, benefit, care charging rates
No
simulate income tax liability, benefit
entitlement, care charges for each of 7 care
situations for pre and post reform charging system

• who self-fund
• mean age user contribution for non self-funders
• mean contribution of disability benefits,
  self-funders non self-funders
• ALL BY TYPE CARE

to PSSRU
Attach weights by age, gender, marital status,
tenure care type, from PSSRU model
Distributional analyses (mean contns from state,
user, gains from reforms) by income, housing
tenure..
from PSSRU
4
CARESIM scope for links with other WPs models

• improved/alternative mortality
• by socioeconomic status
• correlating mortality of partners
• availability of carers (and hence eligibility for
  Carers Allowance)
• refreshing the sample using/learning from PPI
  model